Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets Game 1 Prop Pick

Miami Heat (44-38 SU, 45-55-2 ATS) vs. Denver Nuggets (53-29 SU, 53-43-1 ATS)
When: Thursday, June 1st, 8:30 PM (ET)
Where: Ball Arena, CO, Denver
TV: ABC

Point Spread: Mia +9/Den -9
Total: 219.0
Money Line: Miami Heat +300/-384

Notable Injuries

Heat

• Victor Oladipo (Out) Knee
• Tyler Herro (Out) Hand

Nuggets

Recent Form

Heading into the game, Miami is 44-38 overall. When taking to the road, Miami has a mark of 17-24 and a win percentage of 41%. Currently, the team is 8th in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 45-55-2 vs. the spread. When looking at how the team has performed of late straight and vs. the spread, they are 2-3 in their past 5 games and 3-2 ATS. Over their past 10 games, they are 6-4 SU and 6-4 ATS.

In their upcoming game, Miami will be looking to capitalize on their recent win over the Celtics. Jimmy Butler led the way for the Heat with 28 points. Despite being 7-point underdogs on the spread, the Heat were able to secure an ATS win.

Heading into the game, Denver is 53-29 overall. When playing at home, Denver has a mark of 34-7 and a win percentage of 83%. Currently, the team is 1st in the Western Conference. So far, they are 53-43-1 vs the spread. Denver will look to stay hot in today’s game vs Miami as they are the winners of 6 straight games.

After their win against the Lakers, Denver will be looking to continue their momentum. Nikola Jokic had a big game, scoring 30 points to help lead the team to victory. As 3-point underdogs on the spread, the Nuggets were able to come home with an ATS win

The Historicals

In the most recent matchup between the two teams, the Nuggets picked up the win 112-108 win over the Heat. Heading into the game, Denver was the 1.0-point underdogs, giving them an ATS win. So far this season, the Nuggets have a record of 2-0 vs the Heat. The ATS record across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings is 5-0 in favor of the Nuggets. In these matchups, Denver has averaged 118 points per game while allowing 108. Miami and Denver averaged a combined 226 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 5-0.

Analysis

This season, Miami is averaging 109.5 points on 96.2 possessions per game. Miami’s 3-point shooting numbers are below the league average, as they have hit just 34.4% of their looks from deep. On average, the team gets up 34.8 3-point shots per game, placing them 17th in the NBA. Defensively, the Heat have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 105.6 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 34.0%.

Jimmy Butler leads the team in scoring, with an average of 22.9 points per game.

This year, Denver is averaging 115.8 points per game. Their strong production has come despite being one of the slower-paced teams in the NBA at just 97.9 possessions per game. Denver is currently ranked 2nd in 3-point shooting percentage at 37.9% while entering near the bottom of the league in attempts, at just 31.2 attempts per contest. On defense, the Nuggets are allowing an average of 110.41 points per game, placing them 14th in the league. So far, they have done a good job defending the 3-point arc, as teams are hitting just 34.42% of their looks from deep.

Nikola Jokic is the top scorer for Denver, averaging 24.5 points per game. This season, his field goal percentage is 63.2%. The team’s second-leading scorer is Jamal Murray with an average of 20.0 points per game.

Betting Trends

• Heat are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win.
• Heat are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.
• Nuggets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
• Nuggets are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

When two good teams meet up, there’s rarely any betting value. The Mia/Den series is no exception (For Gm 1 at least). I’m betting Nuggets guard Caldwell-Pope to go OVER 10.5 points. He’s getting a ton of minutes, Denver is an unselfish team that shares the ball and Miami is likely to play a fair share of zone defense, because Adebayo is going to have a tough time keeping up with Jokic and the Nuggets screens. Hopefully the books disregard Caldwell-Pope like they did Caleb Martin in the last series, and we can sneak in and get KCP at a good number for the first few games!