Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics Predictions 1/31/22

Miami Heat (32-18 SU, 29-21-0 ATS) vs. Boston Celtics (26-25 SU, 24-25-2 ATS)
When: Monday January 31 2022, 07:30 PM (ET)
Where: TD Garden: Boston, Massachusetts
TV: BSSUN

Point Spread: MIA 3.0/BOS -3.0 (Opened at BOS -3 at BetOnline)
Total: 209.5 (Opened at 210.5)
Money Line: Miami 130/Boston -150
Power Rating: BOS -3.5

Probable Starting Lineups

Miami: PG Gabe Vincent, SG Tyler Herro, SF Jimmy Butler, PF P.J. Tucker, C Bam Adebayo
Boston: PG Marcus Smart, SG Jaylen Brown, SF Jayson Tatum, PF Robert Williams III, C Al Horford

Key Injuries

Heat Kyle Lowry: personal (OUT) Markieff Morris: neck (OUT) KZ Okpala: wrist (OUT) Victor Oladipo: knee (OUT) Chris Silva: eligibility (QUESTIONABLE)

Celtics Bol Bol: foot (OUT) PJ Dozier: knee (QUESTIONABLE) Romeo Langford: heel (QUESTIONABLE)

Recent Form

The Miami Heat enter today’s game, having won seven of their past ten games. When playing away from home, the Heat are an above .500 team, having gone 14-12. As the road team, Miami travels to Boston with a positive plus-minus of rating of 2.6 points. Overall the Heat is ranked 5th among NBA teams in point differential (-1.1). This figure has come while playing the 15th most difficult schedule.

For bettors, taking the Miami Heat to cover the spread has been a winning bet as they have covered spread in 58.00% of their games. Their season-long plus-minus against the spread is 2.4.

On offense, the team’s leading scorer is Jimmy Butler, averaging 22 points per contest. So far, Butler has been cold from downtown, connecting on just 23% of his three-point attempts. Behind him is Tyler Herro, who is grabbing five rebounds to go along with his 20 points per game.

The Boston Celtics enter today’s game, winning six of their past ten games. When playing at the TD Garden, the Celtics are an above .500 team, having gone 16-10. As they get set to host the Heat, Boston has a positive home plus-minus of 4.2 points. Overall, the Celtics are ranked 8th among NBA teams in point differential (0.9) while playing the 16th most difficult schedule.

So far, the Celtics have covered the spread in just under half of their games at 49%. Their season-long plus-minus against the spread is 0.6.

On offense, the team’s leading scorer is SF Jayson Tatum. So far, Tatum is averaging 26.17 points per game. In addition to his scoring, Tatum is grabbing just under nine rebounds per contest. Behind him is Jaylen Brown, who is hitting 36% of his three-point shots on his way to 24 points per game.

An Eye On Pace

Coming into this game, the Miami Heat are one of the slowest-paced teams in the NBA, averaging just 27 field goal attempts per game. However, they have been more willing to take shots from outside, ranking 13th in three-point attempts. On the other side, the Celtics have played at a pace near the league average. Like their opponent, they have been more willing to get up three-point shots, ranking 11th in the league.

Key Matchups

Look for this matchup to be won or lost from the three-point line. Coming into the game, Both the Heat and Celtics are two of the best interior defenses in the NBA. In addition, each unit ranks near the bottom of the league in points per game in the paint. With sharpshooters like Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson, Miami is the top-ranked team in three-point shooting percentage, hitting 37.7% of their shots from outside.

The Historicals

This game between the Heat and Celtics will be their second meeting of the season, with Boston taking the first matchup 95-87.

How the Public is Betting the Heat vs Celtics

55% are betting the Celtics against the spread.
48% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 209.5.

Betting Trends Worth Noting

Heat are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a straight-up loss. Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. The Celtics are 3-7 ATS in their last ten games as a home favorite.

Joe’s Pick to Cover the Spread

Coming into this game, the Celtics enter as 3.5 point home favorites. Like their first matchup, I expect this to be a low-scoring game. Because each team has been excellent with their interior defense, look for Miami’s ability to knock down the three-point shot to be the difference. I recommend taking the Heat to pick up the win and cover the spread.

Prop Bets Worth Wagering

My favorite prop bet of the night is to take Tyler Herro to go over his over-under total of 20 points. Throughout the season, Herro has been efficient from downtown, knocking down 38% of his three-point attempts. Look for a big scoring night for Herro.