Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics Game 2 Spread Pick & Predicitons

Miami Heat (44-38 SU, 41-53-2 ATS) vs. Boston Celtics (57-25 SU, 52-42-2 ATS)
When: Friday, May 19th, 8:30 PM (ET)
Where: TD Garden, MA, Boston
TV: TNT

Point Spread: Mia +9/Bos -9
Total: 215.5
Money Line: Miami Heat +314/-404

Notable Injuries

Heat

• Victor Oladipo (Out) Knee
• Tyler Herro (Out) Hand
• Ömer Yurtseven (Questionable) Nose

Celtics

• Danilo Gallinari (Out) Knee
• Malcolm Brogdon (Probable) Forearm

Recent Form

Heading into the game, Miami is 44-38 overall. When taking to the road, Miami has a mark of 17-24 and a win percentage of 41%. Currently, the team is 8th in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 41-53-2 vs the spread. In their matchup against Boston, the Miami Heat have won 2 straight games and will look to push that mark to 3 in a row.

In their upcoming game, Miami will be looking to capitalize on their recent win over the Celtics. Jimmy Butler led the way for the Heat with 35 points. Despite being 8-point underdogs on the spread, the Heat were able to secure an ATS win.

Heading into the game, Boston is 57-25 overall. When playing at home, Boston has a mark of 32-9 and a win percentage of 78%. Currently, the team is 2nd in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 52-42-2 vs the spread. In Boston’s last 5 games, the Celtics have a straight-up record of 2-3 while going 2-3 in those games. Going back to the last 10, they are 5-5 and 5-5 ATS.

Boston most recently lost to the Heat by a score of 123-116. The team high 30 points from Jayson Tatum were not enough to come away with the win. The Celtics were 8-point favorites going into the game.

The Historicals

In the most recent matchup between the two teams, the Heat picked up the win 123-116 win over the Celtics. Heading into the game, Miami was the 8.5-point underdogs, giving them an ATS win. So far this season, the Heat have a record of 3-2 vs the Celtics. Spanning across the last 5 head-to-head matchups, the Heat and Celtics have been competitive, with an average margin of victory sitting at just 1 point per game. This has resulted in a 3-2 ATS record for Miami. A combined average of 227 points per game was achieved in these matchups, leading to an over-under mark of 3-2.

Analysis

This season, Miami is averaging just 109.5 points per game. A major reason for these low numbers is the fact that they play at one of the slower paces in the NBA at just 96.2 possessions per game. In terms of 3-point shooting, the Heat are ranked 16th in attempts per game. Defensively, the Heat have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 105.57 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 34.0%.

Bam Adebayo is averaging 20.4 points per game on a field goal percentage of 54.0%. The team’s leading scorer is Jimmy Butler, with an average of 22.9 points per game.

For the season, Boston has put together one of the top-scoring offenses in the NBA at 117.9 points per game. When looking at their style of play, the team is currently near the league average in pace, averaging 99.3 possessions per contest. The Celtics have been able to put together a strong offensive attack while sitting 1st in 3-point shooting percentage. Overall, they are among the league leaders in attempts at 42.6 per game. Defensively, the Celtics have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 104.5 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 33.86%.

Jayson Tatum is the top scorer for Boston, averaging 30.1 points per game. This season, his field goal percentage is 46.6%. The team’s second-leading scorer is Jaylen Brown, with an average of 26.6 points per game.

Betting Trends

• The Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
• The Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
• The Celtics are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss.
• The Celtics are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

I predict the Celtics will bounce back and win big. The bookmaker made a huge line for a reason. Game 1 was likely an enigma.