Miami Heat at Los Angeles Lakers Predictions 11/10/21

Miami Heat (7-3 SU, 7-3 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (6-5 SU, 3-8)
When: Wednesday November 10 2021, 10:00 PM (ET)
Where: Staples Center: Los Angeles, California
TV: BSSUN

Point Spread: MIA -4.0/LAL 4.0 (Opened at
Total: 214.5 (Opened at -4.5 at Pinnacle – The best betting site for non-USA bettors!)
Money Line: Miami -195/Los Angeles 165
Power Rating: MIA -5

Probable Starting Lineups

Heat: PG Kyle Lowry, SG Duncan Robinson, SF Jimmy Butler, PF PJ Tucker, C Bam Adebayo

Lakers: PG Russell Westbrook, SG Avery Bradley, SF Kent Bazemore, PF Anthony Davis, C Deandre Jordan

Key Injuries

Heat Bam Adebayo: knee (QUESTIONABLE) Tyler Herro: back (QUESTIONABLE) Caleb Martin: thumb (PROBABLE) Markieff Morris: neck (OUT) Victor Oladipo: quadricep (QUESTIONABLE) Max Strus: knee (PROBABLE) P.J. Tucker: shoulder (QUESTIONABLE)

Lakers
Trevor Ariza: ankle (QUESTIONABLE) Anthony Davis: thumb (PROBABLE) Talen Horton-Tucker: thumb (OUT) LeBron James: abdominal (OUT) Kendrick Nunn: ankle (OUT) Austin Reaves: hamstring (QUESTIONABLE) Rajon Rondo: hamstring (QUESTIONABLE)

Recent Form

The Miami Heat enter today’s game, having won seven of their first ten games. When playing away from home, the Heat are an above .500 team, having gone 3-2. As the road team, Miami travels to Los Angeles with a positive plus-minus rating of 5.2 points.

Overall, the Heat are ranked 3rd among NBA teams in point differential (-1.1). This rating has come while playing the 5th toughest schedule.

For bettors, taking the Miami Heat to cover the spread has been a winning bet as they cover the spread in 70.00% of their games. Their season-long plus-minus against the spread is 5.7.

On offense, the team’s leading scorer is PF Jimmy Butler. So far, Butler is averaging 25.3 points per game. The Heat’s best three-point shooter has been Duncan Robinson, connecting on 2.9 shots from downtown per game. Bam Adebayo has been in charge of cleaning up the glass, hauling in 11.78 boards per game.

The Los Angeles Lakers enter today’s game, having won six of their past ten games. When playing at Staples Center, the Lakers are an above .500 team, having gone 5-3. So far, LA has benefited from one of the easiest schedules in the NBA, ranking 29th in SOS.

As they get set to host the Heat, Los Angeles has a positive home plus-minus of 1.2 points. Overall the Lakers are ranked 18th among NBA teams in point differential (2.1).

For bettors, taking the Los Angeles Lakers to cover the spread has been a losing bet as they have covered in 27.30% of their games. Their season-long plus-minus against the spread is -5.5.

On offense, the team’s leading scorer is PF Anthony Davis. So far, Davis is averaging 23.91 points per game. Davis is also the Lakers’ top rebounder, pulling in 11.09 boards per game. These outputs have him averaging a double-double.

The Lakers’ best three-point shooter has been veteran forward Carmelo Anthony, who connects on 3.55 shots from downtown per game.

Pace Perspective

This season, Miami is once again one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA. On average, games involving the Heat finished with 96 possessions per game. The Lakers are on the opposite end of the spectrum, averaging 102 possessions per contest. I see the game playing out with a tempo that favors Miami. Historically, when playing faster-paced teams, the games finish five possessions below expectation.

Offensive Impact

Both the Heat and the Lakers are among the NBA leaders in defensive efficiency. The key to this game will be which offense can overcome the quality defensive play. Historically, both teams score at league average rate against good defensive units, with Miami winning at a rate of 43%, compared to LA at 39%.

The Historicals

Last year, the Heat and Lakers met up for two games, with both contests falling in favor of Miami. Combined, the Heat outscored LA 206-198. The largest margin of victory came in game two, with Miami winning 110-104.

How the Public is Betting the Heat vs. Lakers

81% are betting the Heat against the spread.

57% are wagering on the game to go under the posted total of 213.5.

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Betting Trends Worth Noting

Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning straight-up record.
Heat are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.
Lakers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as a home underdog.
Heat are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings in Los Angeles.

Joe’s Pick to Cover the Spread

This season, Miami has been one of the best teams at frustrating their opponents’ top scorers. So far, the Heat have allowed just one “top scorer” to surpass their usual point output. With the Lakers still playing without Lebron James, a lot of the scoring load falls on Anthony Davis. This season Los Angeles has been careful with the big man’s minutes. In addition, Bam Adebayo has the defensive ability to limit Davis’ effectiveness. I like Miami to cover the spread at -4.

Prop Bets Worth Wagering

I expect this game to be played at a slower pace than expected and feature a lot of defense. This combination is a recipe for players to finish below their prop lines. Look for Russell Westbrook to finish below his line of 19.5 points. Note: Our Week 11 college football picks are out of the oven!