Miami at Boston Point Spread Pick for Game 2

Miami Heat (46-36 SU, 42-40 ATS) vs. Boston Celtics (64-18 SU, 42-37 ATS)

When: Wednesday, April 24th, 7:00 PM (ET)

Where: TD Garden, MA, Boston

TV: TNT

Point Spread: Mia +14.5/Bos -14.5

Total: 202.5

Money Line: Miami Heat +750/-1277

Notable Injuries

Heat

• Jimmy Butler (Out) Knee
• Josh Richardson (Out) Shoulder
• Terry Rozier (Out) Neck

Celtics

• Luke Kornet (Out) Calf

The Celtics and Heat are set to tip-off game two of this first-round Eastern Conference series at 7:00 PM ET from TD Garden in Boston. The Celtics are the heavy favorites in this one, as they are favored by 14.5 points and are at -1277 on the money line. The Heat are at +750 on the money line, and the over/under line is at 202.5. Boston leads this series 1-0 and is looking to take a 2-0 lead over the Heat. TNT has the TV coverage.

Heading into the most recent game of this Heat vs. Celtics series, the Celtics were 14.5-point favorites at home. Boston went on to win by a score of 114-94, covering the spread by 2.5 points. The Celtics got off to a good start, outscoring the Heat 26-21 in the first quarter. The over/under line for the game was 210.5 points, and the teams came up just short of that with a combined 208 points.

Boston’s defense was the story of this game, as they held the Heat to just 14 points in the 3rd quarter. Miami shot 32.4% from three and made 12 threes, which was about average for them. On the other side, the Celtics made 22 threes and shot 44.9% from beyond the arc. Jayson Tatum had a triple-double for the Celtics with 23 points, 10 assists, and 10 rebounds.

Recent Form

Miami has a record of 46-36 this season and is currently in 8th place in the Eastern Conference. Against other teams in the East, they are 32-20 compared to 14-16 in non-conference games.

On the road, the Heat are 24-19 this season and have an average scoring differential of +1.0 points per game. Their ATS record on the road is 25-15, compared to 17-25 at home.

This season, the Heat have been the underdog in 36 of their 82 games and are 11-25 in those games. As the underdog, they have lost five straight games ATS.

In their most recent game, Miami lost to the Celtics by a score of 114-94. They were 14.5-point underdogs in that game and are once again 14.5-point underdogs today. The O/U line for that game was 210.5 points.

Miami has gone 2-0 on the under in their last two games, and their O/U record for the season is 36-49. This year, their games have averaged 218.1 points per game.

Boston is currently 42-37 against the spread this season, going 23-17 at home and 19-20 on the road. As the favorite, the Celtics are 40-35 ATS, and they have been favored in 40 of their 45 games.

The Celtics have won three straight games and are the top seed in the Eastern Conference with a record of 64-18. In non-conference play, they are 23-7 compared to 41-11 against the East.

This season, the Celtics have an O/U record of 43-39-1, and their games have averaged 229.5 points per game. Today’s O/U line of 202.5 is lower than their season average of 228.9.

Boston’s last game came against the Heat, and they won by a score of 114-94. The Celtics easily covered the spread as 14.5-point favorites, and the game went under the O/U line of 210.5.

In their previous game vs. the Heat, the Celtics were also favored by 14.5 points. This season, they have gone 3-2 vs. Miami and are favored by 14.5 today.

The Historicals

Although the Heat have the better ATS mark across the previous 5 head-head matchups at 3-2, the average scoring margin sits in favor of Boston, as they averaged 114 points per game while allowing 104. Miami and Boston averaged a combined 218 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 2-3.

Analysis

Miami comes into the game as one of the league’s least efficient offenses, at 110.1 points per game. Their production on the road is even worse, at 107.7 points per contest. Looking at their pace, the Heat are 29th in the NBA, averaging 95.8 possessions per game.

Both the Heat and Hornets will be without their top two scorers for tonight’s game. Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier are both averaging 20.8 points per game this season. Butler has also averaged 5 assists per game, while Rozier has hit 2.4 threes per game on a three-point shooting percentage of 36.3%. Tyler Herro has averaged 18.8 points per game in his last five games, while also averaging 7 assists and 5 rebounds. Over his last five games, Bam Adebayo has hit 65.5% of his shots from the field and 16.6 points.

When it comes to defense, the Miami Heat have been one of the best units in the league, ranking 4th in points allowed per game at 108.2. In their last five games, they have been even better, giving up just 103.2 points per contest, which is 3rd in the NBA.

One area where the Heat have been strong is in limiting opponents’ free throw attempts, as they are 3rd in the league in made free throws allowed at 19.1 per game. Over their last five games, they have given up just 16 made free throws per contest.

Overall, Miami is 11th in field goal percentage allowed at 46.7% and 19th in three-point shooting percentage allowed at 35.4%. In terms of three-point attempts allowed per game, they are 25th in the league at 37.0.

This season, the Celtics are averaging 120.6 points per game, which is the 2nd best mark in the league. They have been even better at home, with an average of 122.9 points per contest. Boston’s offense has been a high-scoring unit, as they have outscored the league average in 73.2% of their games.

Boston leads the NBA in three-point attempts this season, putting up 42.5 attempts per game. They are also in the top half of the league in three-point shooting percentage. Payton Pritchard has been playing well of late, averaging 19.8 points per game in his last five games on a shooting percentage of 56.9%. Jayson Tatum has averaged 21 points per game over his last three games but has hit just 25% of his threes in that stretch.

So far this season, the Celtics have been one of the stingiest defenses in the league, allowing just 109.0 points per game, which is good for 5th in the NBA. At home, Boston has been even better, giving up just 107.6 points per contest, which is 4th in the league.

One area where the Celtics have been able to limit their opponents is from the free-throw line, as they are giving up just 17.2 made free-throws per game, which is tops in the NBA.

Over their last five games, Boston’s defense has been solid, allowing just 107.2 points per game. However, they have struggled to defend the three-point line during that stretch, giving up a 39.6% shooting percentage from beyond the arc.

Betting Trends

• In their last ten games away from home, the Heat have a straight up record of 6-4 while going 7-3 vs. the spread. The team averaged 107 points per game in this stretch.
• Through their last three home games, Boston has an ATS record of just 1-2. However, their overall record was 2-1 while averaging 104 points per game.
• In their last five games as the betting underdog, the Heat have a straight-up record of 0-5 and an ATS mark of 2-3.
• In their last three games as the betting favorite, the Celtics have a strong straight up record of 3-0. In addition, their ATS record was 2-0-1 in these scenarios.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

When it comes to playoff basketball, it’s rare to see a spread sitting at -14.5, but that’s just how dominant the Celtics have been this season, and given that they are facing off against a banged up Heat squad that can go on big offensive droughts, I see Boston covering this one at -14.5. The additions of Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday have been the perfect complement to what the Celtics already had. I’m going with the Celtics ATS for game two.