Memphis at Phoenix: Expert NBA Prediction and ATS Pick

Memphis Grizzlies (35-17 SU, 33-18 ATS) vs. Phoenix Suns (26-26 SU, 18-33 ATS)

When: Tuesday, February 11th, 10:00 PM (ET)

Where: Footprint Center, AZ, Phoenix

TV: TNT

Point Spread: Mem -4.5/Pho +4.5

Total: 243.5

Money Line: Memphis Grizzlies -183/+154

Notable Injuries

Grizzlies

• Marvin Bagley III (Out) Knee
• Johnny Davis (Out) Trade Pending
• Cam Spencer (Out) Thumb

Suns

• Bradley Beal (Out) Toe
• Grayson Allen (Probable) Knee
• Cody Martin (Out) Hernia
• Vasilije Micić (Questionable) Trade Pending

At 10:00 ET, the Memphis Grizzlies (-183) will take on the Phoenix Suns (+154) in a Western Conference matchup. Memphis is favored by 4.5 points, and the over/under line is set at 243.5.

This game will be played at Footprint Center in Phoenix and can be seen on TNT. The Grizzlies are currently 35-17 and sit in 2nd place in the West, while the Suns are 26-26 and 11th in the conference.

Recent Form

The Grizzlies fell to 35-17 on the season after a 125-112 loss to the Thunder on Saturday. Memphis, who were +1.5 point underdogs at home, failed to cover the spread. The game’s total of 237 points came in under the O/U line of 245.

Memphis struggled early, falling behind 69-52 by halftime. They went on an 11-0 run in the 4th quarter, narrowing the gap from 104-82 to 104-93, but couldn’t complete the comeback.

The Suns dropped to 26-26 on the season after a 122-105 home loss to the Nuggets on Saturday. Phoenix entered the game as +6.5 point underdogs and failed to cover the spread. The total score of 227 points fell short of the 234-point over/under line.

Denver took control early, leading 37-32 after the 1st quarter and 63-55 at halftime. A 35-26 3rd quarter put the Suns in a 98-81 hole heading into the 4th, where both teams scored 24 points.

The Historicals

Although the Grizzlies have the better ATS mark across the previous five head-head matchups at 3-2, the average scoring margin sits in favor of Phoenix, as they averaged 113 points per game while allowing 109. A combined average of 222 points per game was achieved in these matchups, leading to an over-under mark of 2-3.

Analysis

Desmond Bane led the Grizzlies with 20 points and nine rebounds in their 125-112 loss to the Thunder, shooting 46.7% from the field and hitting three threes at 42.9%. Jaren Jackson Jr. added 19 points, with nine coming in the 2nd quarter, and Santi Aldama contributed 18 points on 75% shooting, scoring 6 points in both the 1st and 3rd quarters.

The Grizzlies made 12 threes, shooting 42.9% from beyond the arc while finishing with an overall field goal percentage of 44.4%. Ja Morant scored 9 of his 16 points in the 4th quarter, and GG Jackson added 8 of his 11 points in the opening period.

Defensively, the Grizzlies struggled in the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd quarters, giving up 34, 35, and 35 points, respectively, in their 125-112 loss to the Thunder. They tightened up in the 4th, allowing just 21 points. Overall, Memphis allowed Oklahoma City to shoot 42% from the field.

The Grizzlies had trouble defending the three, as the Thunder hit 18 threes at a 42% clip. Memphis sent Oklahoma City to the line 21 times, where they made 17 free throws. The Grizzlies gave up 21 offensive rebounds but recorded seven steals and nine blocks.

In their 122-105 loss to the Nuggets, the Suns shot just 38.8% from the field, though they connected on 17 threes, despite hitting only 34% from deep. Devin Booker led the way with 24 points, adding seven rebounds and three assists while making three threes at 37.5%.

Bol Bol contributed 19 points and seven rebounds, scoring 8 points in the 4th quarter. Tyus Jones added 15 points and 10 assists, hitting three threes at 37.5%.

The Suns struggled defensively in the 1st and 3rd quarters, giving up 37 and 35 points, respectively, in their 122-105 loss to the Nuggets. They allowed Denver to shoot 48% from the field overall.

Phoenix gave up 16 three-pointers on 45% shooting from deep. The Nuggets also went 16/17 from the free-throw line. Defensively, the Suns recorded five steals and six blocks.

Betting Trends

• Although Memphis has a straight-up record of 6-4 in their last ten road games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 7-3. The team averaged 125 points per game in these games.
• In their last five games at home, the Suns have a straight-up record of 2-3 while going 2-3 vs. the spread. The team averaged 114 points per game in this stretch.
• As the betting underdog, the Suns have an ATS mark of just 1-2 in their last three games. Phoenix posted a straight-up mark of 1-2 in these matchups.
• In their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Grizzlies have a straight-up record of 9-1 and an ATS mark of 6-3-1.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

The Suns are in a tough stretch right now; they are just 1-4 in their last five games, including two losses to the Trail Blazers. Now, they are +4.5 point dogs at home vs the Grizzlies tonight. At this point, there is little reason to think that the Suns can beat a good team, and they are also just 18-33 vs the spread this season. Even if Phoenix keeps it close early, I think Memphis covers this number, and I’m taking them at -4.5.