Mavs vs. Wolves: Key NBA Trends and ATS Picks

Minnesota Timberwolves (22-21 SU, 17-25 ATS) vs. Dallas Mavericks (23-20 SU, 20-22 ATS)

When: Wednesday, January 22nd, 7:30 PM (ET)

Where: American Airlines Center, TX, Dallas

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: Min -2/Dal +2

Total: 217

Money Line: Minnesota Timberwolves -137/+115

Notable Injuries

Timberwolves

• Donte DiVincenzo (Out) Toe
• Terrence Shannon Jr. (Out) Foot

Mavericks

• Klay Thompson (Questionable) Ankle
• Dwight Powell (Out) Hip
• Dante Exum (Out) Wrist
• Luka Doncic (Out) Calf
• Naji Marshall (Questionable) Illness
• Quentin Grimes (Questionable) Back
• Jaden Hardy (Out) Ankle
• Dereck Lively II (Questionable) Ankle

At 7:30 ET, the Minnesota Timberwolves (-137) will travel to take on the Dallas Mavericks (+115) in a Western Conference matchup. The Timberwolves are currently favored by 2 points and have lost their last two games. The over/under line for this game is 217 points.

This game will be played at the American Airlines Center in Dallas and can be seen on ESPN. Minnesota is currently 9th in the Western Conference with a record of 22-21, while Dallas is 7th in the West with a record of 23-20.

Recent Form

The Timberwolves dropped to 22-21 on the season after a 108-106 road loss to the Grizzlies on Monday. Minnesota entered the game as +5 point underdogs and covered the spread with the narrow loss. The total score of 214 points fell well below the O/U line of 235.

Minnesota went on a 15-0 run early, stretching the score from 21-17 to 36-17. They led 76-71 going into the 4th quarter, but Memphis outscored them 37-30 in the final period to complete the comeback.

The Mavericks fell to 23-20 on the season after a 110-105 loss to the Hornets on Monday. Dallas, who were -4 point favorites, not only lost the game but also failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game were 215, falling short of the 224-point over/under line.

A 14-0 run by the Hornets, which took the score from 55-49 to 63-55, was a key moment in the game. Dallas led 83-82 going into the 4th quarter, but Charlotte outscored them 28-22 in the final period to secure the win.

The Historicals

Over the last five head-to-head meetings, the Mavericks have averaged 111 points per game compared to 106 for Minnesota. This has led to an ATS record of 3-2 for Dallas. In these matchups, the teams have put together an over-under mark of 3-2. Combined, they averaged 217 points in these games.

Analysis

In their 108-106 loss to the Grizzlies, the Timberwolves shot just 38.7% from the field, with a three-point percentage of 32.6%. They did connect on 14 threes, though, with Naz Reid hitting 5 of them at a 50% rate.

Anthony Edwards led the way with 32 points, including 12 in the 1st quarter, while Reid added 29 points, 15 of which came in the 4th. Rob Dillingham chipped in 15 points, 7 of which came in the final period.

Despite a strong defensive start, the Timberwolves couldn’t hold off the Grizzlies in the 4th quarter, allowing 37 points in a 108-106 loss. Minnesota did well in limiting Memphis’ three-point shooting, holding them to just 7 made threes on 21% shooting.

The Timberwolves sent the Grizzlies to the line 34 times, where they converted 27 free throws. Minnesota grabbed 35 defensive rebounds but gave up 13 offensive boards. They also recorded five steals and six blocks in the game.

In their 110-105 loss to the Hornets, the Mavericks struggled offensively, shooting just 43.2% from the field and hitting only six threes at an 18.8% clip. Kyrie Irving led the way with 33 points, including 14 in the 4th quarter, while Daniel Gafford added 31 points and 15 rebounds, shooting 80% from the floor.

P.J. Washington contributed 13 points, with four coming in the final period. Irving connected on three threes, shooting 37.5% from deep, while the rest of the team combined for just three made threes.

Defensively, the Mavericks gave up 110 points to the Hornets, allowing 31 in the 2nd quarter. Despite the loss, they held Charlotte to 40% shooting overall.

Dallas struggled to defend the three, with the Hornets hitting 17 threes at a 43% clip. The Mavericks sent Charlotte to the line 18 times, where they made 13 free throws.

Betting Trends

• The Timberwolves are 4-1 ATS in their last road games and 4-1 straight-up.
• When looking at their past five home matchups, Dallas has an ATS record of 0-5 while averaging 104 per game. The team went 0-5 overall in these games.
• Going back to their previous ten games as the underdog, Dallas has an ATS mark of 3-7 while going 3-7 straight up.
• In their last five games as the betting favorite, the Timberwolves have a straight up record of 3-2, while going 2-3 against the spread.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

The Timberwolves had an impressive win over the Thunder on Friday but went on the road and lost to the Hornets on Monday. Now, they are +2 point underdogs at home vs the Timberwolves, who have had a heavy schedule of late, as this is their 4th game since last Friday. I’m riding the Mavs at home in this one, and I like them at +2.