Mavs vs. T-Wolves Game 2 Point Spread Pick | Western Conference Finals

Dallas Mavericks (50-32 SU, 56-39 ATS) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (56-26 SU, 48-45 ATS)

When: Friday, May 24th, 8:30 PM (ET)

Where: Target Center, MN, Minneapolis

TV: TNT

Point Spread: Dal +5.5/Min -5.5

Total: 207

Money Line: Dallas Mavericks +176/-214

Notable Injuries

Mavericks

• Maxi Kleber (Out) Shoulder
• Luka Doncic (Probable) Knee/Ankle
• Olivier-Maxence Prosper (Out) Ankle

Timberwolves

• Mike Conley (Questionable) Soleus

With a 1-0 lead in the Western Conference Finals, the 5th-seeded Mavericks will face the 3rd-seeded Timberwolves at the Target Center in Minneapolis on Friday, May 24th, at 8:30 PM ET. The Timberwolves are favored by -5.5 points, and the over/under is 207 points.

The Mavericks picked up a 108-105 road win over the Timberwolves in the most recent game of this series. Heading into the game, the Timberwolves were favored by 4.5 points, but the Mavericks covered the spread. The over/under line was 206.5 points, and the teams combined for 213 points, 6.5 points above the line.

Offensively, the Mavericks shot 49.4% from the field, which was above their season average. However, they hit just six threes on 24% shooting. Luka Doncic led all scorers with 33 points, and Kyrie Irving added 30. Jaden McDaniels knocked down six threes for the Timberwolves and finished with 24 points.

Recent Form

The Mavericks are 16-20 as underdogs this season and have covered the spread in their last three games as the underdog. On average, they have been outscored by 4.8 points per game when going into the game as the underdog.

On the road, the Mavericks have an ATS record of 32-16 and have covered the spread in their last three road games. Currently, they are 14th in the Western Conference with a record of 50-32.

In their last game against the Timberwolves, the Mavericks won 108-105 as 4.5-point underdogs. The O/U line for that game was 206.5, and the teams combined for 213 points.

This season, the Mavericks have an O/U record of 43-52, and the over has hit in their last two games. On average, their games have finished with 230.3 points.

In the Western Conference, the Mavericks are currently in 5th place and have a record of 31-21 against other teams in the West. Against the spread, they are 56-39 overall and have covered the spread in three straight games on the road.

Minnesota’s record as the favorite this season is 50-19, and they have been favored in 69 of their 82 games. As the favorite, they have gone 32-36 against the spread with an average scoring margin of +8.5 points per game.

On average, Minnesota’s games have finished with 218.1 points per game, which is higher than today’s O/U line of 207. This season, their games have had an average O/U line of 219.4 points.

In their last game against the Mavericks, the Timberwolves lost 108-105. They were favored by 4.5 points in that game, and the O/U line was 206.5. This means that the teams combined to score 213 points, which was higher than the O/U line.

Minnesota is currently 3rd in the Western Conference with a record of 56-26. In games against other Western Conference teams, they are 37-15 and 12-4 against teams in their division. On the road, they are 31-16 compared to 33-14 at home.

This season, the Timberwolves are 48-45 against the spread and 21-26 ATS at home. Today, they are favored by 5.5 points, and their ATS record as the favorite is 16-9 at home and 32-36 overall.

The Historicals

When looking at how these teams have performed vs the spread in recent matchups, the Mavericks have an ATS mark of 3-2. Yet, the Timberwolves have averaged more points per game in these contests, at 114 compared to Minnesota at 104. The over-under record in these same games is 2-3, with the teams combining for an average of 218 points per game.

Analysis

Dallas heads into the game as the 4th ranked team in three-point attempts, at 39.5 attempts per game. They have hit 14.6 threes per contest, which is also 4th in the league. Overall, the Mavericks are 11th in field goal percentage, at 48%. For the season, the Mavericks are 9th in scoring, at 117.9 points per game.

Luka Doncic is averaging 26.6 points per game over his last five games, to go along with 8.8 assists and 10.6 rebounds. This is compared to his season average of 33.9 points per game. Over his last five games, P.J. Washington is averaging 16 points and 8 rebounds, while hitting 3.2 threes per game.

On the season, the Mavericks are giving up 114.0 points per game, which is 17th in the NBA. In their last five games, they have been even better, allowing just 102.8 points per contest, which is 4th in the league over that span.

For the year, opponents have made 36.5% of their three-point attempts against Dallas, which is 16th in the NBA.

So far this season, opposing teams have scored more than their season average in 61.0% of their games vs. the Mavericks. However, opponents have made fewer threes than their season average in 51.2% of their matchups with Dallas.

Minnesota comes into the game as the NBA’s 20th-ranked scoring offense, averaging 113 points per game. This figure is just below their home scoring average of 111.3 points per contest. The Timberwolves are also among the league leaders in three-point shooting, connecting on 38% of their looks from beyond the arc. Overall, they are 9th in field goal percentage, at 48%.

Anthony Edwards has been carrying the Timberwolves offense of late, averaging 24.8 points per game over his last five games. In these games, he also averaged 6.6 assists and 6.4 rebounds. Jaden McDaniels has hit 61.5% of his shots in his last five games and 17.6 points per game in this stretch. Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 21.8 points and 8.3 rebounds for the season, while Naz Reid is at 13.5 points and 5.2 rebounds.

When it comes to defense, the Minnesota Timberwolves have been the best in the league, allowing just 105.7 points per game. They have been especially tough at home, giving up just 103.2 points per game. Over their last five games, they have been even better, allowing just 99 points per game.

One area where the Timberwolves have been particularly effective is defending the three-point line. On the season, they are third in three-point shooting percentage allowed at 35.6%. Over their last five games, they have been even better, holding opponents to just 32% from beyond the arc.

Overall, opponents have scored less than their season average in 84.1% of games against the Timberwolves this season. In terms of rebounds, Minnesota is 14th in the league at 43.6 rebounds per game and 5th in defensive rebounds.

Betting Trends

• Across their last five road contests, Dallas has been good against the spread posting a mark of 4-1. Their overall mark in these games was 4-1, while averaging 109 points per game.
• Through their last ten home contests, the Timberwolves offense has averaged 108 points per game while allowing an average of 103. Minnesota posted an overall record of 7-3 while going 7-3 ATS.
• As the betting underdog, the Mavericks have an ATS mark of just 8-2 in their last ten games. Dallas posted a straight up mark of 7-3 in these matchups.
• Going back to their last five games as the favorite, the Timberwolves have a straight up record of 2-3. But, their mark vs the spread was just 2-3.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Heading into game two, the Timberwolves are still favored by -5.5 even after dropping game one. Minnesota did a good job of responding to adversity in their previous series vs. the Nuggets, but they are going to need a better game plan for Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, as both surpassed 30 points on Wednesday. Look for Minnesota to do everything they can to key in on the Mavericks’ big two and force their supporting cast to take on a bigger role. However, I still like Dallas to cover at +5.5 in this one.