Mavericks vs. Warriors Prediction ATS for Dec 30, 2023

Dallas Mavericks (18-14 SU, 17-15 ATS) vs. Golden State Warriors (15-16 SU, 14-16 ATS)

When: Saturday, December 30th, 8:30 PM (ET)

Where: Chase Center, CA, San Francisco

TV: NBCS

Point Spread: Dal +5/GS -5

Total: 240.5

Money Line: Dallas Mavericks +154/-185

Notable Injuries

Mavericks

• Kyrie Irving (Doubtful) Foot
• Maxi Kleber (Out) Toe
• Luka Doncic (Questionable) Quad

Warriors

• Draymond Green (Out) Suspension
• Kevon Looney (Questionable) Illness

Recent Form

Through 32 games, the Mavericks are 18-14 and have dropped two straight games. As they head to take on the Warriors, they are 5-point underdogs.

In the Western Conference, the Mavericks are in 6th place and sit 1st in the Southwest Division. Against other teams in the West, Dallas has gone 13-11 compared to 5-3 in non-conference games.

So far this season, the Mavericks have been the favorite in 20 games and have a scoring margin of +6.8 points per game in those games. Dallas has gone 15-5 straight up as the favorite and 13-7 against the spread.

On the road, Dallas is just 14th in both wins (10-7) and average scoring differential (-0.5 PPG). The Mavs’ ATS record on the road this season is 11-6, and they have each of their last two games vs. the spread as the road underdog.

This season, the over/under record in Dallas’ games has been 20-12, and 26 of their games have had lower over/under lines than today’s line of 240.5. The Mavericks have an over/under record of 17-9 when playing games with lower OU lines than today’s line. In their last game, they lost to the Timberwolves by a score of 118-110 (OU 227.5).

Heading into today’s matchup vs. the Mavericks, the Warriors are the slight 5-point favorites at home. Overall, Golden State is 11th in the West with a record of 15-16 this season.

Against the spread, the Warriors are 14-16 and have gone just 5-10 at home vs. the spread. When playing at home, Golden State has an average scoring margin of +.2 points per game.

When favored, the Warriors have a record of 12-6 but have failed to cover the spread in each of their last two games as the favorite. This season, they have been favored in 18 of their 31 games.

The over/under record in Golden State’s games is currently sitting just above .500 at 16-14-1. They have two straight games finish below the OU lines for each of those games. Today’s line of 240.5 is slightly higher than their average OU line of 229.7.

The Historicals

When looking at how these teams have performed against the spread in recent matchups, the Mavericks hold the edge at 4-1. However, the average scoring margin in these matchups has been tight, sitting at just -1 points per game. In these matchups, the teams have put together an over-under mark of 5-0. Combined, they averaged 233 points in these games.

Analysis

When looking at their most recent game, the Mavericks put up 110 points against the Timberwolves. Overall, they shot 44.4% from the field and connected on 14 three-pointers. For the season, the Mavericks are shooting 46% from the field, which puts them 19th in the NBA. In terms of three-point shooting, they are 16th in percentage and are 2nd in three-pointers made.

Looking at the Mavericks’ defense, they will be looking for a better performance, considering they are currently conceding 117.6 points per game (22nd). Dallas struggled on the boards in their last game vs. the Timberwolves, giving up 13. For the game, Minnesota scored 118 points in the game.

In their most recent game, the Warriors put up 102 points against the Heat. They shot 42% from the field and hit 8 three-pointers. Overall, the Warriors are 25th in the NBA with a 45% field goal percentage. In terms of three-point shooting, they are 14th in percentage and 5th in three-pointers made.

At present, the Warriors’ defense is ranked 19th, allowing 115.8 points per game. On two-point field goal attempts, the Warriors’ defensive unit is allowing a field goal percentage of 53.9% and allowing 35.1% from beyond the arc.

Betting Trends

• In their last five road games, Dallas has averaged 113 points per game while allowing 120. The team’s record in this stretch was 2-3 while going 3-2.
• Across their three previous home games, Golden State has an ATS mark of 1-2. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 1-2 while averaging 115 points per game.
• Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the underdog, the Mavericks have a straight-up record of 2-8. Their record vs the spread in these games was 3-7.
• Through their last five games as the favorite, the Warriors have an ATS record of 3-2 and a straight-up mark of 4-1.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Although the Mavericks are coming off a couple of tough losses, I see them being able to hang around against an even more inconsistent Warriors unit. My pick for this matchup is Dallas at +5.