Mavericks vs. Warriors: Expert Picks and Predictions

Dallas Mavericks (5-5 SU, 4-5 ATS) vs. Golden State Warriors (8-2 SU, 8-2 ATS)

When: Tuesday, November 12th, 10:00 PM (ET)

Where: Chase Center, CA, San Francisco

TV: TNT

Point Spread: Dal +2.5/GS -2.5

Total: 232

Money Line: Dallas Mavericks +119/-142

Notable Injuries

Mavericks

• Dante Exum (Out) Wrist
• Luka Doncic (Probable) Groin
• P.J. Washington (Doubtful) Knee
• Dereck Lively II (Questionable) Shoulder

Warriors

• Andrew Wiggins (Questionable) Back

At 10:00 ET, the Golden State Warriors (-142) will host the Dallas Mavericks (+119) in a Western Conference matchup. The Warriors (-2.5) are favored over the Mavericks, and the over/under line is set at 232 points.

This game will be played at the Chase Center in San Francisco, and it can be seen on TNT.

Recent Form

Dallas fell to 5-5 on the season after a 122-120 loss to the Nuggets on Sunday. The Mavericks were +2 point underdogs going into the game, and the final score resulted in a push for bettors. The total points for the game were 242, exceeding the O/U line of 233 by 9 points.

Dallas had a strong 2nd quarter, outscoring Denver 34-25, but the Nuggets responded in the 3rd, taking a 97-94 lead into the 4th. The Mavericks edged Denver 26-25 in the final quarter but couldn’t complete the comeback.

The Warriors improved to 8-2 on the season with a 127-116 win over the Thunder on Sunday. Golden State, who entered the game as +6.5 point underdogs, not only won but covered the spread. The total points for the game hit 243, surpassing the O/U line of 227.5 by 15.5 points.

After trailing 33-26 at the end of the 1st quarter, the Warriors took control with a 10-0 run, turning a 65-58 deficit into a 68-65 lead. They dominated the 2nd and 3rd quarters, outscoring OKC 81-46, including a 42-21 3rd quarter. Golden State eased up in the 4th, allowing the Thunder to win the quarter 37-20.

The Historicals

Over the last five head-to-head meetings, the Mavericks have averaged 114 points per game compared to 111 for Golden State. This has led to an ATS record of 4-1 for Dallas. The over-under record in these same games is 2-3, with the teams combining for an average of 225 points per game.

Analysis

Kyrie Irving’s 43-point performance, including 16 in the 4th quarter, highlighted the Mavericks’ offense in their 122-120 loss to the Nuggets. Irving shot 77.3% from the field, hitting six threes at a 75% rate, while the rest of the team struggled from deep, making just ten threes at 30.3%.

Dallas shot 53.3% overall, with Luka Dončić adding 24 points and nine assists and Daniel Gafford contributing 16 points on 77.8% shooting. Irving’s 11 points in the 3rd quarter and 16 in the 4th were key to the Mavericks’ late push.

Despite a strong defensive effort in the 2nd and 4th quarters, the Mavericks couldn’t contain the Nuggets, allowing 122 points on 50% shooting. Denver had big 1st and 3rd quarters, scoring 35 and 37 points, respectively.

Dallas struggled to defend the three, with the Nuggets hitting 14 threes at a 48% clip. The Mavericks sent Denver to the line 26 times, where they made 18 free throws. Dallas gave up 13 offensive rebounds while recording seven steals and five blocks.

Stephen Curry knocked down seven threes, shooting 53.8% from deep, and finished with 36 points and seven assists in the Warriors’ win over the Thunder. Golden State hit 21 threes as a team, shooting 48.8% from beyond the arc and 50.6% overall from the field.

Jonathan Kuminga added 20 points, with 12 coming in the 2nd quarter, while De’Anthony Melton hit five threes and grabbed ten rebounds. Melton scored 9 of his 19 points in the 2nd quarter, and Curry poured in 17 points in the 3rd.

Despite a rough 4th quarter where they gave up 37 points, the Warriors’ defense held strong in the 2nd and 3rd quarters, allowing just 25 and 21 points, respectively, to help secure the win over the Thunder. Golden State limited Oklahoma City to 44% shooting from the field.

From beyond the arc, the Warriors kept the Thunder in check, allowing just 11 made threes on 33% shooting. Golden State also recorded eight steals and three blocks in the game.

Betting Trends

• Through their last ten road contests, the Mavericks offense has averaged 106 points per game while allowing an average of 107. Dallas posted an overall record of 5-5 while going 5-3-2 ATS.
• Although Golden State has a straight-up record of 8-2 in their last ten home games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 7-3. The team averaged 120 points per game in these games.
• In their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Mavericks have a straight-up record of 6-4 and an ATS mark of 6-2-2.
• As the betting favorite, the Warriors have an ATS record of 4-1 in their last five games. In these matchups, their, straight up record was 4-1.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Warriors are continuing a really tough stretch of their schedule and have held up well, going 2-1 vs the Celtics, Cavaliers, and Thunder, all of which are legitimate contenders this year. Golden State is one of the better surprises of the season, going 8-2 so far this year. As for the Mavs, they have two straight tight losses against the Suns and Nuggets, and tonight’s odds suggest this one could be tight as well. However, I feel good about how Golden State has been playing, and I like them to win and cover at -2.5.