Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Prediction: Will Fatigue Hurt Dallas?

Dallas Mavericks (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS)

When: Tuesday, October 29th, 7:30 PM (ET)

Where: Target Center, MN, Minneapolis

TV: TNT

Point Spread: Dal +5/Min -5

Total: 222

Money Line: Dallas Mavericks +156/-186

Notable Injuries

Mavericks

• Dante Exum (Out) Wrist
• Maxi Kleber (Out) Hamstring

Timberwolves

• No Injuries Reported

At 7:30 ET, the Timberwolves (-186) will host the Mavericks (+156) in a Western Conference matchup. The over/under line for the game is 222.

Both teams enter the game with 2-1 records. The Timberwolves are currently favored by 5 points over the Mavericks. The game will be played at the Target Center in Minneapolis and can be seen on TNT.

Recent Form

The Mavericks improved to 2-1 on the season with a 110-102 win over the Jazz on Monday. Playing at home, Dallas was favored by 11.5 points but didn’t cover the spread. The game’s total score of 212 points fell well short of the 231.5-point over/under line.

Dallas jumped out to a 27-19 lead after the 1st quarter, but the Jazz narrowed the gap by winning the 2nd quarter 24-22. The Mavericks responded by outscoring Utah 33-27 in the 3rd, taking an 82-70 lead into the final period. Although the Jazz edged Dallas 32-28 in the 4th, the Mavericks held on for the win.

The Timberwolves improved to 2-1 on the season with a 112-101 win over the Raptors on Saturday. Playing at home, Minnesota entered the game as 15-point favorites but didn’t cover the spread. The combined score of 213 points fell short of the 218.5-point over/under line.

Minnesota set the tone early, going on an 11-0 run to extend their lead from 8-3 to 19-3. They led 32-18 after the 1st quarter. While Toronto edged the Timberwolves 26-24 in the 2nd quarter, Minnesota responded by winning the 3rd quarter 33-28. Heading into the 4th with an 89-72 lead, the Timberwolves allowed the Raptors to outscore them 29-23 in the final period.

The Historicals

Across the previous five meetings between the teams, the Mavericks have an average scoring margin of +6 points per game, leading to an ATS mark of 4-1. In these contests, they averaged a combined 216 points per game, leading to an over-under mark of 4-1.

Analysis

In their win over the Jazz, the Mavericks shot 45.3% from the field, struggling from beyond the arc with just 11 made threes at a 28.2% clip. Kyrie Irving led the way with 23 points and nine assists, hitting three threes at 50% efficiency.

Klay Thompson added 18 points, knocking down four threes, while Luka Dončić contributed 15 points despite shooting just 22.7%. Spencer Dinwiddie scored all 11 of his points in the 3rd quarter.

The Mavericks’ defense shined on Monday, holding the Jazz to 102 points on 37% shooting. They were particularly strong in the 1st quarter, allowing just 19 points, and gave up 24 in the 2nd. The Jazz managed 27 points in the 3rd and 32 in the 4th, but Dallas still secured the win.

From beyond the arc, the Mavericks limited the Jazz to 10 made threes on 28% shooting. Dallas also recorded nine steals and 12 blocks in the game.

In their win over the Jazz, the Mavericks shot 45.3% from the field, with a poor 28.2% from three-point range, making just 11 threes. Kyrie Irving led the way with 23 points and nine assists, hitting 50% of his threes.

Klay Thompson added 18 points, knocking down four threes despite shooting 36.4% from deep. Luka Doncic struggled, shooting 22.7% from the field, finishing with 15 points, nine rebounds, and eight assists.

Defensively, the Timberwolves were strong in their win over the Raptors, holding them to 101 points. They set the tone early, allowing just 18 points in the 1st quarter. The Raptors scored 26 in the 2nd, 28 in the 3rd and 29 in the 4th, but Minnesota’s defense held firm.

The Timberwolves limited Toronto’s three-point shooting, giving up only ten made threes on 34% shooting. They also sent the Raptors to the line just 13 times, where they made nine free throws. Minnesota added nine steals and eight blocks to their defensive effort.

Betting Trends

• Across their five previous road games, Dallas has an ATS mark of 1-3-1. Their record in these matchups was 1-4 while averaging 100 points per game.
• The Timberwolves are 2-1 ATS in their last three home games and 2-1 straight-up.
• Going back to their last ten games as the underdog, the Mavericks have a straight-up record of 6-4. But, their mark vs the spread was just 6-3-1.
• In their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Timberwolves have a straight-up record of 4-6 and an ATS mark of 3-7.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Both the Mavericks and the Timberwolves are at 2-1 heading into Tuesday’s matchup, and the Timberwolves come into this one favored by -5. Minnesota has a big advantage heading into tonight’s game, having been off since their win on Saturday, while the Mavs are not only on the road but playing on back-to-back nights. Look for this to play a role down the stretch, and I see Minnesota not only winning but covering the spread.