Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Game 5 Pick & Predictions

Dallas Mavericks (50-32 SU, 58-40 ATS) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (56-26 SU, 49-47 ATS)

When: Thursday, May 30th, 8:30 PM (ET)

Where: Target Center, MN, Minneapolis

TV: TNT

Point Spread: Dal +4.5/Min -4.5

Total: 209.5

Money Line: Dallas Mavericks +161/-195

Notable Injuries

Mavericks

• Luka Doncic (Questionable) Knee/Ankle
• Dereck Lively II (Questionable) Neck
• Olivier-Maxence Prosper (Out) Ankle

Timberwolves

• Mike Conley (Questionable) Soleus

On Thursday, May 30th, at 8:30 PM ET, the 5th-seeded Mavericks will face the 3rd-seeded Timberwolves at the Target Center in Minneapolis. The Mavericks lead the Western Conference Finals 3-1 but are +4.5 point underdogs. The over/under is 209.5 points.

Behind a strong 3rd quarter, the Timberwolves were able to pull out a 105-100 win over the Mavericks in the most recent game of this series. Heading into the game, the Mavericks were favored by 1.5 points and didn’t cover the spread. The game also fell 6.5 points short of the over/under line of 211.5 points.

Anthony Edwards had a big game for the Timberwolves, finishing with 29 points, 9 assists, and 10 rebounds. Karl-Anthony Towns also had a big game, scoring 25 points and hitting 80% of his threes. On the other side, Luka Doncic led all scorers with 28 points and also had a triple-double.

Recent Form

The Mavericks have an O/U record of 45-53-0 this season, and their games have averaged 229.8 points per game. Today’s O/U line of 209.5 is lower than the average line of 231.2 in their games.

Dallas has gone 20-17 vs. the spread as the underdog this season, and they have covered the spread in their last four games as the underdog. On the road, their ATS record is 33-16, and they have an overall ATS record of 58-40.

In their last game vs. the Timberwolves, the Mavericks lost 105-100. They were favored by 1.5 points in that game and are 17-20 as the underdog this season. The O/U line for that game was 211.5.

Overall, the Mavericks are 50-32 this season, which is good for 5th place in the Western Conference. Against other Western Conference teams, they are 31-21 and 11-5 in their division.

On the road, the Mavericks have a scoring differential of +1.1 points per game, and they have won four straight games on the road. As the underdog, their scoring differential is -4.7 PPG.

In games where Minnesota has been favored, their ATS record is 32-37 at home and 49-47 overall. Today, they are favored by 4.5 points. The Timberwolves have been favored in 70 of their 82 games this season.

Minnesota’s O/U record for the season is 51-46, and 83 of their games have had higher over/under lines than today’s line of 209.5. On average, their games have seen a combined scoring total of 218 points.

The Timberwolves are 3rd in the Western Conference with a record of 56-26. In the West, they are 37-15 and 12-4 against other teams in the Northwest Division.

Minnesota won their last game against the Mavericks by a score of 105-100. They were 1.5-point underdogs going into the game. The combined scoring total was 205, and the O/U line was 211.5.

In non-conference games, Minnesota has gone 19-11 compared to 37-15 against the West. At home, the Timberwolves are 21-27 ATS this season and 33-15 straight-up.

The Historicals

Although the Mavericks have the better ATS mark across the previous 5 head-head matchups at 3-2, the average scoring margin sits in favor of Minnesota, as they averaged 109 points per game while allowing 104. In these contests, they averaged a combined 213 points per game, leading to an over-under mark of 3-2.

Analysis

Looking at the Mavericks’ team three-point shooting numbers, they are 4th in the league in both three-point attempts and makes this season. Overall, they have hit 36% of their looks from beyond the arc. Dallas is also a good two-point shooting team, as they have hit 56% of their two-point shots, which is the 6th best mark in the league. For the season, the Mavericks are averaging 117.9 points per game.

Luka Doncic is averaging 31 points per game over his last five games on 45.7% shooting. In these games, he also averaged 4.2 made threes per game. Overall, Doncic is averaging 33.9 points and 9.8 assists this season. Kyrie Irving has averaged 24.2 points per game in his last five games while hitting 37.5% of his threes in that stretch.

On the season, the Mavericks are giving up 113.7 points per game, which is 17th in the NBA. In their last five games, they have been even better, ranking 10th in the league at 108.2 points per game allowed.

One area where Dallas has been strong defensively is inside the arc. They are 10th in the NBA in two-point shooting percentage allowed at 53.9%.

On the year, the Mavericks have given up 12.9 made three-pointers per game, which is 16th in the league. Over their last five games, they have been a bit worse in that area, ranking 21st in three-point shooting percentage allowed at 37.6%.

Minnesota is 21st in scoring this season, at 113 points per game. Their home scoring average is just 111.3 points per contest, which is 24th in the league. Looking at their pace, the Timberwolves are 27th in the league, averaging 97 possessions per game.

The Timberwolves are the NBA’s 3rd best three-point shooting team this season, at 38%. Overall, they are 9th in field goal percentage. Over his last five games, Anthony Edwards is averaging 22.2 points, 8 assists, and 8.6 rebounds. Jaden McDaniels’ last five field goal percentage is 57.4%, and he averaged 14.8 points per game in that stretch.

When it comes to defense, the Minnesota Timberwolves have been the top unit in the NBA this season, allowing just 105.8 points per game. That number is even better at home, where they have given up just 103.3 points per contest.

One reason for their success has been their ability to protect the paint, as they are first in the league in two-point shooting percentage allowed at 51.0%. Overall, Minnesota is 7th in the NBA in blocked shots at 6.1 per game.

Over their last five games, the Timberwolves have been even better from beyond the arc, as opponents have shot just 34.4% from three-point range. On the season, Minnesota is 3rd in the NBA in three-point shooting percentage allowed.

Betting Trends

• Dallas has played well in their previous 5 road games, going 4-1 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 107 points per game while allowing 106. The team also performed well vs the spread at 4-1.
• When looking at their past three matchups at home, Minnesota has an ATS record of 2-1 while averaging 103 per game. The team went 2-1 overall in these games.
• Through their last five games as the underdog, the Mavericks have an ATS record of 4-1 and a straight up mark of 4-1.
• The last ten games that Minnesota was favored, they have an ATS mark of 3-7 while going 5-5 straight up.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Minnesota picked up a huge win in game four, keeping their season alive and bringing the series back to Minneapolis. Look for the Timberwolves to ride the momentum of their game-four win and pick up yet another victory tonight. With the point spread sitting at -4.5, I’m going with the Timberwolves to cover.