Mavericks vs. Suns Predictions: Can Dallas Stay Hot in the Desert?

Dallas Mavericks (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) vs. Phoenix Suns (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS)

When: Saturday, October 26th, 10:00 PM (ET)

Where: Footprint Center, AZ, Phoenix

TV: AZFa

Point Spread: Dal -2.5/Pho +2.5

Total: 232.5

Money Line: Dallas Mavericks -141/+120

Notable Injuries

Mavericks

• Dante Exum (Out) Wrist

Suns

• Grayson Allen (Questionable) Personal
• Josh Okogie (Questionable) Hamstring

At 10:00 ET, the Dallas Mavericks (-141) will travel to Phoenix to take on the Suns (+120). The over/under line for this Western Conference matchup is currently sitting at 232.5 points.

Phoenix (1-1) is a 2.5-point underdog at home against the favored Mavericks (1-0). The game will be played at Footprint Center and can be seen on AZFa.

Recent Form

The Mavericks opened their season with a 120-109 win over the Spurs on Thursday, moving to 1-0. Dallas, playing at home, covered the -8.5 spread, winning by 11 points. The total score of 229 points narrowly exceeded the O/U line of 226.5.

After a tight first half, Dallas took control in the 3rd quarter, outscoring San Antonio 40-31. A key 12-0 run in the 4th quarter extended their lead from 94-83 to 106-83, helping them seal the win.

The Suns dropped to 1-1 on the season after a 123-116 road loss to the Lakers on Friday. Phoenix, who entered the game as +1.5 point underdogs, failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game were 239, surpassing the pre-game O/U line of 227.5 by 11.5 points.

Phoenix got off to a strong start, leading 38-23 after the 1st quarter, but the Lakers responded with a 10-0 run. The Suns were down 87-85 heading into the 4th quarter but couldn’t close the gap, as they were outscored 36-31 in the final period.

The Historicals

Through the last five matchups between the teams, Dallas has an ATS mark of 3-2. But, looking at the scoring margin in these games, an average of just 1 point per game separates the teams. Dallas and Phoenix averaged a combined 233 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 1-4.

Analysis

The Mavericks connected on 19 threes at a 43.2% clip in their win over the Spurs despite shooting just 41.2% overall from the field. Klay Thompson hit six threes, shooting 60% from deep, while Luka Doncic added four threes, though he shot just 36.4% from beyond the arc.

Doncic led the way with 28 points, ten rebounds, and eight assists, scoring 11 points in the 4th quarter. Thompson added 22 points, with eight coming in the 3rd, and Kyrie Irving also scored 8 in the 3rd, finishing with 15 points overall.

Defensively, the Mavericks were solid in the 1st quarter, allowing just 22 points, but they gave up 31 points in the 3rd. Overall, they held the Spurs to 109 points on 45% shooting.

Dallas did well defending the three, with San Antonio hitting 12 threes at a 33% rate. The Mavericks also recorded nine steals and five blocks in the game.

In their win over the Spurs, the Mavericks connected on 19 threes, shooting 43.2% from deep despite an overall field goal percentage of just 41.2%. Klay Thompson was key from beyond the arc, hitting six threes at a 60% clip.

Luka Doncic led Dallas with 28 points, adding 11 in the 4th quarter, while Thompson contributed 22, with six coming in the final period. Kyrie Irving and Dereck Lively each added 8 points in the 3rd quarter, with Lively finishing with 15 points overall.

The Suns started strong defensively, giving up just 23 points in the 1st quarter, but they struggled in the 2nd half, allowing 35 points in the 3rd and 36 in the 4th, leading to a 123-116 loss to the Lakers. Phoenix couldn’t slow down Los Angeles, who shot 53% from the field.

From beyond the arc, the Lakers hit 14 threes at a 51% clip. The Suns also sent the Lakers to the line 39 times, where they made 29 free throws. Phoenix gave up six offensive rebounds while recording eight steals and four blocks.

Betting Trends

• Although Dallas has a straight-up record of 6-4 in their last ten road games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 6-3-1. The team averaged 105 points per game in these games.
• In their last three games at home, the Suns have a straight-up record of 1-2 while going 0-3 vs. the spread. The team averaged 108 points per game in this stretch.
• Going back to their last five games as the underdog, the Suns have a straight-up record of 2-3. But, their mark vs the spread was just 2-3.
• Going back to their last three games as the favorite, the Mavericks have a straight up record of 1-2. But their mark vs the spread was just 1-2.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Suns are coming off a game where they really struggled defensively vs the Lakers, and they have scored 116 points in each of their first two games. Dallas should be able to get what they want on offense and should have a big scoring game as well. I really like the Over heading into this game, with the line sitting at 232.5. For tonight’s Dallas vs Phoenix game, go with the over.