Mavericks vs. Nuggets NBA Betting Pick and Predictions

Dallas Mavericks (16-9 SU, 14-11 ATS) vs. Denver Nuggets (17-10 SU, 11-15 ATS)

When: Monday, December 18th, 9:00 PM (ET)

Where: Ball Arena, CO, Denver

TV: NBA

Point Spread: Dal +7.5/Den -7.5

Total: 238.5

Money Line: Dallas Mavericks +241/-301

Notable Injuries

Mavericks

• Kyrie Irving (Out) Foot
• Richaun Holmes (Questionable) Illness
• Maxi Kleber (Out) Toe
• Josh Green (Out) Elbow
• Dereck Lively II (Out) Ankle

Nuggets

• Aaron Gordon (Probable) Heel
• Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Questionable) Concussion
• Jamal Murray (Probable) Ankle
• Vlatko Cancar (Out) Knee

Recent Form

The Mavericks come into today’s game with an overall record of 16-9 and have gone 2-1 in their last three games. When facing Western Conference teams, the Mavericks are 11-7 and have gone 5-2 in non-conference games.

Coming into today, the Nuggets are 17-10 overall and have gone 2-1 in their last three games. On the road, the Nuggets are 7-8 this season compared to 10-2 at home.

The Historicals

When looking at how these teams have performed against the spread in recent matchups, the Nuggets hold the edge at 3-2. However, the average scoring margin in these matchups has been tight, sitting at just -1 points per game. In these matchups, the teams have put together an over-under mark of 3-2. Combined, they averaged 223 points in these games.

Analysis

Coming off a good offensive performance, Dallas’ offense scored 131 points against the Trail Blazers. Their field goal percentage for the game was 49.5%, and they went 19/21 from the free-throw line. Currently leading the team in scoring is Luka Doncic who comes into today’s matchup averaging 32.7. Kyrie Irving also heads into the game with a PPG average of 23.

The Mavericks’ defense is presently ranked 22nd in the league, allowing an average of 117.1 points per contest.

Dallas’ defense is currently forcing 11.6 turnovers per game, which is 2nd in the league. Additionally, they enter the game ranked 22nd in blocked shots, with an average of 4.6 rejections per game.

In their latest game, the Nuggets offense put up 117 points against the Thunder. They recorded an overall field goal percentage of 45.2% and made 12 threes. Up to this point, the Nuggets’ offense has been efficient inside the arc, posting a two-point field goal percentage of 55%. In terms of pace, they are 27th in the NBA possessions per game (96.7).

This season, the Nuggets defense has been impressive, holding the 6th position in the league while permitting an average of 110.8 points per contest.

Opponents are hitting 52.2% of their two-point field goal attempts this season, and they’re also connecting on 35.8% of their three-point attempts.

Betting Trends

• Across their last five road contests, Dallas has been good against the spread posting a mark of 4-1. Their overall mark in these games was 4-1, while averaging 113 points per game.
• When looking at their past five home matchups, Denver has an ATS record of 3-2 while averaging 116 per game. The team went 3-2 overall in these games.
• As the betting underdog, the Mavericks have an ATS mark of just 1-4 in their last five games. Dallas posted a straight-up mark of 1-4 in these matchups.
• As the betting favorite, the Nuggets have an ATS record of 3-2 in their last five games. In these matchups, their straight-up record was 3-2.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Even without Kyrie Irving, I see the Mavs being able to hang around in this one as 7.5-point underdogs. Look for Luka Doncic to carry the team and give them a shot to win down the stretch. I like Dallas at +7.5.