Mavericks vs. Heat Odds, Analysis, Free Pick

Dallas Mavericks (37-40 SU, 30-45-2 ATS) vs. Miami Heat (40-37 SU, 28-47-2 ATS)

When: Saturday, April 1st, 7:30 PM (ET)

Where: Miami-Dade Arena, FL, Miami

TV: NBA

Point Spread: Dal -1/Mia -1 (Today is a GREAT day to learn about the benefits of reduced juice!)

Total: 224.5

Money Line: Dallas Mavericks -106/-114

Notable Injuries

Mavericks

• Frank Ntilikina (Questionable) Knee

Heat

• Kyle Lowry (Questionable) Knee
• Bam Adebayo (Questionable) Hip
• Nikola Jovic (Out) Back

Recent Form

Heading into the game, Dallas is 37-40 overall. When taking to the road, Dallas has a mark of 15-24 and a win percentage of 38%. Currently, the team is 11th in the Western Conference. So far, they are 30-45-2 vs. the spread. When looking at how the team has performed of late straight and vs. the spread, they are 1-4 in their past five games and 2-3 ATS. Over their past ten games, they are 3-7 SU and 6-4 ATS.

In their last outing, Dallas was unable to come away with a win against the 76ers, losing by a score of 116-108. Luka Doncic led the team with 24 points, but it was not enough to overcome their status as 6-point underdogs. The Mavericks also ended up with an ATS loss in the game.

Heading into the game, Miami is 40-37 overall. When playing at home, Miami has a mark of 25-14 and a win percentage of 64%. Currently, the team is 7th in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 28-47-2 vs. the spread. The Heat need a win in today’s matchup vs. Dallas to avoid their 4th straight loss.

Miami most recently lost to the Knicks by a score of 101-92. The team high 21 points from Gabe Vincent were not enough to come home with the win. The Heat were 6-point favorites going into the game.

The Historicals

In the most recent matchup between the two teams, the Mavericks picked up the win 115-90 win over the Heat. Heading into the game, Dallas was the 2.0-point underdogs, giving them an ATS win. This has been the only matchup between the two teams this season. The Mavericks have had the better record vs. the spread over the last five games, going 4-1. The team’s average scoring margin in these contests sits at 8 points per game. The over-under record in these same games is 2-3, with the teams combining for an average of 212 points per game.

Analysis

This season, the Mavericks’ offense is averaging 113.8 points per game, which is 16th in the NBA. In terms of pace, Dallas has been playing at one of the slower tempo’s in the league, averaging just 96.8 possessions per game. Dallas’ offensive attack has benefited from some hot shooting from outside. Not only are they among the league leaders in 3-pointers attempted per game, but they are 9th in 3-point shooting percentage at 37.2%. Defensively, the Mavericks have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 104.72 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 33.98%.

As the Mavericks prepare for today’s game, Luka Doncic is their leading scorer with an average of 32.8 points per game. This season, Doncic has a field goal percentage of 49.6%. The team’s second-leading scorer is Kyrie Irving, who is averaging 26.8 points per game.

This season, Miami is averaging just 108.7 points per game, which places them 30th in the league. A major reason for these low numbers is the fact that they play at one of the slower paces in the NBA at just 96.2 possessions per game. The Heat have been able to put together a strong offensive attack despite sitting just 27th in 3-point shooting percentage. Overall, they are among the league leaders in attempts at 34.4 attempts per game. Defensively, the Heat have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 105.57 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 34.0%.

Heading into the game, Bam Adebayo is listed as questionable on the injury report. This season, he leads the team with a per-game scoring average of 20.7. Currently, Jimmy Butler is 2nd on the team in scoring at 22.6 points per game.

Betting Trends

• Mavericks are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Mavericks are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
• Heat are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight-up loss.
• Heat are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games overall.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Miami Heat return home to the friendly confines of their own beds and home court, where they’ve gone 4-1 SU over their last five home games. Meanwhile, Dallas has absolutely stunk as of late. I’m stoked to only have to lay -1 with Miami! Bankroll hurting? Fix that problem with a fat 100% real cash bonus on your first deposit of $50 to $300 by using bonus promo code PREDICT100 when you make your first deposit at MyBookie Sportsbook!