Mavericks vs. Clippers Game 2 Odds, Analysis, Pick | 4/23/24

Dallas Mavericks (50-32 SU, 48-35 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (51-31 SU, 39-44 ATS)

When: Tuesday, April 23rd, 10:00 PM (ET)

Where: Crypto.com Arena, CA, Los Angeles

TV: TNT

Point Spread: Dal -2/LAC +2

Total: 216.5

Money Line: Dallas Mavericks -137/+115

Notable Injuries

Mavericks

None

Clippers

• Kawhi Leonard (Questionable) Knee

Game two of this Western Conference first-round series between the Mavericks and Clippers is set for 10:00 PM ET at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. The Clippers currently lead the series 1-0 and are the underdog in this one, with the Mavericks favored by two. The over/under line is at 216.5 points, and the money line odds are -137 for the Mavericks and +115 for the Clippers. TNT is the TV network carrying this game.

James Harden and the Clippers took down the Mavericks in the most recent game of this series, winning by a score of 109-97. The Clippers got off to a great start in this one, outscoring the Mavericks 34-22 in the first quarter and 22-8 in the second. Going into the game, the Mavericks were favored by 3.5 points, and the Clippers covered the spread.

Los Angeles held the Mavericks to just 38.8% shooting from the field, and they also hit 18 threes. The Clippers finished the game shooting 46% overall and 50% from three. On the other side, Luka Doncic led all scorers with 33 points, while James Harden had 28 for the Clippers.

Recent Form

The Mavericks are favored by 2 points in today’s game vs. the Clippers. This season, they have been favored in 52 of their 82 games, going 38-14 in those games. As the favorite, Dallas has an average scoring margin of +6.7 points per game.

Dallas has an average over/under line of 234.6 points in their games this season, and their games have averaged a combined 233.2 points. Today’s O/U line is set at 216.5, and the Mavericks have gone under the total in their last four games.

In their most recent game against the Clippers, the Mavericks lost by a score of 109-97. The O/U line for that game was 221.5, and Dallas was favored by 3.5 points. The Mavericks are 48-35 ATS this season and have failed to cover the spread in their last three games.

Currently, the Mavericks are 5th in the Western Conference with a record of 50-32. In non-conference games, they are 19-11 compared to 31-21 against the West. On the road, the Mavericks are 27-15 and have an ATS record of 27-15 on the road.

In Clippers’ games this season, the average over/under line is 227.6, which is higher than today’s line of 216.5. Their games have averaged 227.7 points per game.

LA has hit the under in three straight games and has an O/U record of 38-44-1 for the season. In non-conference games, the under is 21-9 compared to 6-14 as the underdog.

The Clippers’ ATS record for the season is 39-44, with a home ATS record of 19-23 and a road ATS record of 20-21. They have lost two straight games vs. the spread as the favorite.

Going into today’s game, the Clippers are 6th in the Western Conference with a record of 51-31. In the West, they are 30-22 against other conference opponents.

The Clippers are coming off a 109-97 win over the Mavericks, where they were 3.5-point underdogs. The O/U line for that game was 221.5, and the Clippers covered the spread.

The Historicals

The Clippers have had the better record vs the spread over the last 5 games, going 3-2. The team’s average scoring margin in these contests sits at 3 points per game. Dallas and Los Angeles averaged a combined 223 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 1-4.

Analysis

Dallas comes into the game as the NBA’s 3rd ranked three-point shooting team, at 14.6 made threes per game. However, they are just 14th in three-point shooting percentage, at 36%. Overall, the Mavericks are the 6th best scoring team, at 117.9 points per contest. For the season, Luka Doncic is averaging 33.9 points and 9.8 assists. In his last three games, he is averaging 33.7 points, 8.3 assists, and 11.3 rebounds.

Looking at Kyrie Irving’s last three games, he has hit 54.2% of his shots from the field and 45.5% of his threes. This has led to an average of 24.7 points per game in that stretch. For the season, he is averaging 25.6 points and 5.2 assists. Daniel Gafford has hit 84.6% of his shots from the field in his last four games.

On the season, the Mavericks are giving up 115.6 points per game, which is 20th in the NBA. When playing on the road, they are allowing 116.1 points per contest (19th).

Over their last five games, opposing offenses have scored 109.4 points per game vs. Dallas (15th). During this stretch, the Mavericks have done a good job of keeping opponents off the free-throw line, as they are giving up just 12 made free-throws per game (4th).

So far this season, opposing offenses have made 13.2 three-pointers per game vs. Dallas (20th). In terms of shooting percentage, the Mavericks are 20th in the NBA, allowing opponents to shoot 47.6% from the field and 36.9% from three.

Los Angeles is averaging 115.6 points per game this season, which is 12th in the league. Their home scoring average of 115.2 points per contest is 15th in the NBA. Despite being in the bottom half of the league in pace, the Clippers have been an efficient team, as they are 6th in field goal percentage and 4th in three-point shooting percentage.

Bones Hyland has averaged 21.3 points per game over his last five games, hitting 45.5% of his shots from the field in that stretch. He also averaged 5.7 assists and 6 rebounds in those games. The Clippers could be without Kawhi Leonard, who is questionable with a knee injury. Leonard is averaging 23.7 points per game this season.

At home, the Clippers’ defense is giving up 112.0 points per game, which is 15th in the NBA. Overall, they are 10th in the league in points allowed per contest at 112.2.

Over their last five games, Los Angeles has been even stingier, allowing just 107.8 points per game, which is 11th in the NBA over that span. During that stretch, they have been especially tough against the three-point shot, allowing opponents to shoot just 27% from beyond the arc.

On the season, opposing teams have made 12.8 threes per game against the Clippers, which is 14th in the league. Overall, teams have shot 46.8% from the field against Los Angeles, which is 12th in the NBA.

Betting Trends

• Although Dallas has a straight up record of 2-3 in their last five road games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 2-3. The team averaged 104 points per game in these games.
• Through their last three home games, Los Angeles has an ATS record of just 1-2. However, their overall record was 2-1 while averaging 110 points per game.
• Going back to their previous three games as the underdog, Los Angeles has an ATS mark of 1-2 while going 1-2 straight up.
• As the betting favorite, the Mavericks have an ATS mark of just 7-3 in their last ten games. Dallas posted a straight up mark of 7-3 in these matchups.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Thanks to a 2nd quarter where the Clippers held Dallas to just eight points, they cruised to a win in game one of this series. Now, heading into game two, the Mavs are the slight two-point favorite. I’m expecting a huge game out of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving in this one, and I like Dallas to take game two and cover the spread as -2 point favorites.