Mavericks vs. Celtics Game 2 Pick & Analysis

Dallas Mavericks (50-32 SU, 59-41 ATS) vs. Boston Celtics (64-18 SU, 49-44 ATS)

When: Sunday, June 9th, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: TD Garden, MA, Boston

TV: ABC

Point Spread: Dal +7/Bos -7

Total: 214.5

Money Line: Dallas Mavericks +220/-274

Notable Injuries

Mavericks

None

Celtics

None

Heading into game two of the NBA Finals, the 1st-seeded Celtics lead the series 1-0 over the 5th-seeded Mavericks. Tip-off is set for 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, June 9th, at the TD Garden in Boston. The over/under line is currently at 214.5 points, and the Celtics are favored by -7.

The Celtics had a big win over the Mavericks in the most recent game of this series, picking up an 18-point win. Boston got off to a hot start, outscoring the Mavericks 37-20 in the first quarter. The Celtics also covered the spread as 6.5-point favorites, and the game finished 21.5 points below the over/under line of 217.5.

Defensively, the Celtics held the Mavericks to just 41.7% shooting from the field and only seven made threes. Luka Doncic led the Mavericks with 30 points, but the next highest scorer for Dallas was P.J. Washington with 14. Jaylen Brown led the Celtics with 22 points, and Kristaps Porzingis added 20.

Recent Form

In games where the Mavericks have been the underdog this season, the average scoring margin is -4.4 points per game. As the underdog, they have gone 18-21 straight up and 21-18 against the spread on the road.

On average, Dallas’ games have seen a combined scoring total of 229.4 points per game this season. Today’s O/U line is set at 214.5, and 88 of their games have had higher over/under lines than that. The team’s over/under record for the season is 46-54.

In their last game against the Celtics, the Mavericks lost by a score of 107-89. They were 6.5-point underdogs in that game, and the O/U line was 217.5. This marked the 18th time this season that the Mavs have failed to cover the spread on the road (34-17 ATS).

Overall, the Mavericks are 50-32 this season, which is good for 5th place in the Western Conference. Against the West, they have a record of 31-21 and are 19-11 in non-conference games.

In terms of ATS, the Mavericks are 59-41 for the season, including a 38-23 record as the favorite and 21-18 as the underdog. Their average scoring differential on the road is +1.2 PPG.

The Celtics are currently on an eight-game winning streak and have a record of 64-18, which is the best in the Eastern Conference. In their last game against the Mavericks, the Celtics won by a score of 107-89.

This season, the Celtics have been favored in 93 of their 82 games and have a record of 75-18 as the favorite. Today, they are favored by 7 points and have covered the spread in their last two home games.

Boston has an ATS record of 49-44 this season, going 27-21 at home and 22-23 on the road. Currently, their ATS record vs. the Eastern Conference is 41-11 and 22-23 on the road.

The Celtics’ O/U record for the season is 51-45-1, and the team has hit the under in their last two games. On average, their games have finished with 227 points this season.

The Historicals

The Celtics have had the better record vs the spread over the last 5 games, going 5-0. The team’s average scoring margin in these contests sits at 19 points per game. In these contests, they averaged a combined 225 points per game, leading to an over-under mark of 2-3.

Analysis

Looking at Luka Doncic’s last five games, he has averaged 4.8 made threes per game on a shooting percentage of 43.6%. This has led to an average of 31.8 points, 10.4 rebounds, and 6.8 assists in those games. For the season, he is averaging 33.9 points per game. The Mavericks are 4th in three-point attempts this year, averaging 39.5 attempts per game.

Dallas is currently 11th in field goal percentage, at 48%. As a team, they are averaging 117.9 points per game. The Mavericks’ home scoring average is 116.9 points per game, compared to 114.9 on the road. The Hornets have struggled to defend the three-point shot this year, which could be a good matchup for the Mavericks.

So far this season, the Dallas Mavericks have been a middle-of-the-pack defensive team, ranking 16th in points allowed per game at 113.6. On the road, they’ve given up 113.8 points per contest, which is also 15th in the league.

Over their last five games, the Mavericks have been even better on the defensive end, allowing just 106 points per game, which is 6th in the NBA during that stretch. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, they’re 13th in the league at 47%.

One area where Dallas has struggled this season is in terms of steals, as they’re just 25th in the NBA in that category. However, they have been able to protect the rim, coming in 14th in blocked shots per game.

This season, Jaylen Brown is averaging 23.9 points per game, and over his last five games, he has hit 52.5% of his shots from the field and 28.2 points per game. Jayson Tatum is averaging 27.4 points per game in his last five games to go along with 10.4 rebounds and 6 assists. Overall, the Celtics are the league’s top three-point shooting team, both in terms of three-point shooting percentage and three-pointers made per game.

For the season, the Celtics are averaging 120.6 points per game, which is the 2nd best mark in the league. When playing at home, they are at 121.5 points per contest. Boston’s offense is also one of the most efficient units in the league, as they have hit 48% of their shots from the field.

When it comes to defense, the Celtics are one of the best in the league. They are 3rd in points allowed per game at 107.9. In their last five games, they have been even better, ranking 9th in points allowed at 108.

One area where the Celtics have been excellent is at the free-throw line. On the season, they are giving up just 16.6 made free-throws per game, which is tops in the NBA.

Despite their strong defense, opponents have been able to hit 34.6% of their threes vs. the Celtics. However, Boston has done a good job of limiting three-point attempts, ranking 20th in the league in three-point attempts allowed per game.

Betting Trends

• Across their ten previous road games, Dallas has an ATS mark of 7-3. Their straight up record in these matchups was 7-3 while averaging 106 points per game.
• Across their ten previous home games, Boston has an ATS mark of 4-6. Their straight up record in these matchups was 8-2 while averaging 107 points per game.
• Going back to their previous ten games as the underdog, Dallas has an ATS mark of 7-3 while going 7-3 straight up.
• In their last five games as the betting favorite, the Celtics have a straight up record of 5-0, while going 2-3 against the spread.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The ability of the Celtics to have lineups where everyone can step beyond the arc and hit shots is a problem for the Mavericks. Not only that, but the addition of Jrue Holiday proved to be big in game one, as Kyrie Irving was just 6/19 from the field. Look for the Celtics to roll once again. I like Boston to cover at -7 in game two.