Magic vs. Pacers Betting Analysis & Predictions

Orlando Magic (5-11 SU, 7-8-1 ATS) vs. Indiana Pacers (8-6 SU, 10-4-0 ATS)
When: Saturday, November 19th, 7:00 PM (ET)
Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, IN, Indianapolis
TV: BSF

Point Spread: ORL +6.5/ IND -6.5
Total: 229.5
Money Line: Orlando Magic +206/ -248

Notable Injuries

Magic

• Markelle Fultz (Out) Toe
• Jonathan Isaac (Out) Hamstring
• Wendell Carter Jr. (Probable) Foot
• Moritz Wagner (Out) Ankle
• Cole Anthony (Out) Oblique
• Paolo Banchero (Out) Ankle

Pacers

• Daniel Theis (Out) Knee
• Chris Duarte (Out) Ankle

Recent Form

So far, the Magic have put together an overall record of 5-11 while going 7-8-1 vs. the spread. Over the team’s past three games, Orlando has an overall record of 1-2, including going 1-2 against the spread.

Orlando is going for yet another win, as they previously defeated the Bulls. With the 108-107 victory, they also covered the spread as 8-point underdogs. Orlando will look to do a better job putting teams away down the stretch, as they let the Bulls get back into the game after leading by 14 points at halftime. In the win, Wendell Carter Jr. led the team in scoring with 21 points on a field goal percentage of 56.2%.

The Pacers come into today’s matchup with an overall record of 8-6. So far, the team has gone 10-4-0 against the spread. The Pacers entered today’s game having picked up three straight wins. This has come on an average scoring differential of 11.33 points per game.

The Pacers will look to keep things rolling, as they previously beat the Rockets by a score of 99-91. Heading into the game, they were 5-point favorites on the spread, giving them an ATS win. Indiana went on to win the game, despite trailing by five going into halftime. Leading the team in scoring was Tyrese Haliburton, as he contributed 19 points while hitting 43.8% of his shots.

The Historicals

Last season, the Magic did a good job on the road in their meetings vs. the Pacers, going 1-0. This led to an overall series record of 2-1. In last year’s head-to-head meetings, the Magic averaged 117.33 points per game vs. Indiana, which was an increase over their season-long average. While the Magic saw a boost in scoring, the Pacers averaged 114.33 points per contest in head-to-head meetings with Orlando. This figure was similar to the season-long average. Although the Magic have the better ATS mark across the previous five head-head matchups at 3-2, the average scoring margin sits in favor of Indiana, as they averaged 117 points per game while allowing 114. A combined average of 231 points per game was achieved in these matchups, leading to an over-under mark of 3-2.

Analysis

The Magic come into today’s game as the 24th-ranked scoring offense at 109.8 points per game. Coming into today’s game, the Magic will be looking to improve their 3-point shooting numbers, as they are averaging just 10.3 made 3’s per game. One area of the team’s offense that has been effective is their ability to get to the free-throw line. So far, they are ranked 11th, with an average of 19.3 made free throws per game.

Currently, the Magic defense is ranked 20th in points allowed. So far, opposing teams are averaging 112.23 points per game vs. the unit.

A key injury to note in this game is the absence of the Magic 2nd leading scorer, Paolo Banchero. In his 11 games, Banchero is averaging 23.55 points per game while dishing out 3.64 assists and grabbing 8.27 rebounds. In his absence, the team will be looking for even more production out of Franz Wagner, who leads the team and is 57th in the NBA at 18.69 points per contest. For the season, he has connected on 49.0% of his field goal attempts while taking 17.8% of the team’s shots from the floor.

Through 14 games, Indiana is the 5th best scoring team at 116.6 points per game. The Pacers come into the game as one of the league’s better 3-point shooting teams, connecting at a rate of 14.9 made 3’s per game. In addition to their strong outside shooting numbers, the team is playing at one of the fastest paces in the NBA, averaging 101.0 possessions per contest.

On defense, the Pacers will look for some improved play, as they are currently the 26th-ranked unit in points allowed per game.

Point-Guard Tyrese Haliburton currently leads the Pacers at 20.5 points per game. For the season, he is 106th in the NBA in usage rate and has taken 16.9% of the team’s field goal attempts. In addition to his scoring, Haliburton is averaging 4.64 boards and 10.21 assists per contest. In today’s game, he is facing off against the NBA’s 29th-ranked defense at defending point guards. Bennedict Mathurin enters the game, sitting second on the team in scoring. Through 14 games, he is averaging 19.57 and is 87th in the league in player efficiency rating.

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Betting Trends

Magic are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 games following an ATS win.
Magic are 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
The Pacers are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games overall.
The Pacers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Magic are playing much better ball, and the Pacers are starting to play well too. That said, Orlando has been keeping it close, so there’s good betting value with the Magic at +6.5.