Magic vs. Heat Predictions & Picks: NBA Thursday Night

Miami Heat (14-13 SU, 12-15 ATS) vs. Orlando Magic (19-12 SU, 19-12 ATS)

When: Thursday, December 26th, 7:00 PM (ET)

Where: Kia Center, FL, Orlando

TV: FDSF

Point Spread: Mia +1.5/Orl -1.5

Total: 207.5

Money Line: Miami Heat +101/-120

Notable Injuries

Heat

• Jimmy Butler (Doubtful) Conditioning
• Josh Richardson (Out) Heel
• Terry Rozier (Questionable) Knee
• Dru Smith (Out) Lower Leg

Magic

• Gary Harris (Questionable) Hamstring
• Moritz Wagner (Out) Knee
• Franz Wagner (Out) Oblique
• Paolo Banchero (Out) Oblique

The Orlando Magic (-120) are hosting the Miami Heat (+101) in a Southeast Division matchup. The Magic are favored by 1.5 points, and the over/under line is set at 207.5. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:00 ET at the Kia Center in Orlando.

Orlando enters the game on a two-game winning streak and currently sits in fourth place in the Eastern Conference. Miami is 14-13 on the season and is the sixth seed in the East.

Recent Form

With a 110-95 win over the Nets on Monday, the Heat improved to 14-13 for the season. Playing at home, Miami entered the game as a -9.5-point favorite and covered the spread. The total points for the game came to 205, falling short of the 210.5 O/U line.

Miami jumped out to a 39-28 lead after the 1st quarter, but the Nets responded by taking the 2nd quarter 29-19. The Heat regained control in the 3rd, outscoring Brooklyn 25-21, and then put the game away by holding the Nets to 17 points in the 4th while scoring 27 of their own.

Orlando improved to 19-12 on the season with a 108-104 win over the Celtics on Monday. The Magic were +10 point underdogs but pulled off the upset at home. The total score of 212 points fell just short of the 214.5-point line.

After falling behind 58-43 at halftime, Orlando turned things around in the 3rd quarter, outscoring Boston 36-21. The Magic carried that momentum into the 4th, where they edged the Celtics 29-25 to seal the win.

The Historicals

The ATS record across the previous five head-to-head meetings is 3-2 in favor of the Magic. In these matchups, Orlando has averaged 106 points per game while allowing 103. The over-under record in these same games is 3-2, with the teams combining for an average of 209 points per game.

Analysis

In their win over the Nets, the Heat shot 49.3% from the field and hit 17 threes at a 41.5% clip. Bam Adebayo led the way with 23 points, seven rebounds, and seven assists, shooting 66.7% from the floor.

Nikola Jovic added 18 points, knocking down four threes at 80% efficiency. Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson each contributed 17 points, with Herro also grabbing 12 rebounds and dishing out nine assists.

The Heat clamped down defensively in the 4th quarter, allowing just 17 points to the Nets, as they held Brooklyn to 95 points on 39% shooting from the field. Miami gave up 28 points in the 1st quarter and 29 in the 2nd before tightening up in the 3rd, where they allowed 21 points.

From beyond the arc, the Heat allowed the Nets to hit 13 threes at a 38% clip. Brooklyn also went 16/20 from the free-throw line. Miami finished with 39 defensive rebounds, giving up 11 offensive boards while also recording six steals and three blocks.

Tristan Da Silva led the Magic with 18 points, hitting four threes at 50% in their win over the Celtics. Trevelin Queen added 17 points, making three threes at 75%, and Jalen Suggs contributed 16 points despite shooting just 38.5% from the field.

Orlando connected on 13 threes, shooting 39.4% from beyond the arc, while their overall field goal percentage was 44.6%. Queen scored 10 of his points in the 3rd quarter, and Suggs added 9 points in the same period.

Despite a rough start, giving up 32 points in the 1st quarter, the Magic tightened up defensively to hold the Celtics to 104 points. They allowed just 21 points in the 3rd quarter and 25 in the 4th, helping them secure the win.

Orlando’s defense shined on the perimeter, limiting Boston to 8 made threes on 24% shooting. The Magic also recorded 11 steals and nine blocks in the game.

Betting Trends

• Through their last three road contests, the Heat offense has averaged 109 points per game while allowing an average of 118. Miami posted an overall record of 0-3 while going 0-3 ATS.
• In their last ten games at home, the Magic have a straight-up record of 6-4 while going 6-4 vs. the spread. The team averaged 105 points per game in this stretch.
• Spanning across their last three games as the betting underdog, the Heat have gone 1-2 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 1-2.
• In their last five games as the betting favorite, the Magic have a strong straight-up record of 4-1. In addition, their ATS record was 3-2 in these scenarios.

Joe”s Pick To Cover The Spread

The big storyline heading into this matchup is the outlook for Jimmy Butler, as his desire to be out of Miami is picking up steam, and he is listed as doubtful tonight. This type of distraction is a problem for a team that is facing an Orlando squad that is banged up but plays hard every night and has been able to play well without their top player. I like Orlando to win and cover tonight.