Los Angeles Clippers at Los Angeles Lakers Pick 12/3/21

Los Angeles Clippers (11-11 SU, 9-13-0 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (12-11 SU, 8-15-0 ATS)
When: Friday, Dec. 3rd, 2021, 10:00 pm (ET)
Where: Staples Center, Los Angeles, CA
TV: Bally Sports/NBA TV

Point Spread: LAC +1.5/LAL -1.5 (Opened at +2 LAL at Intertops)
Total: 216 (Opened at 215.5)
Money Line: LAC -105/LAL -120
Power Rating: PK

Probable Starting Lineups

Los Angeles Clippers: PG Reggie Jackson, SG Eric Bledsoe, SG Paul George, C Serge Ibaka, C Ivica Zubac
Los Angeles Lakers: PG Russell Westbrook, SG Avery Bradley, SF Lebron James, PF Anthony Davis, C Dwight Howard

Key Injuries

Los Angeles Clippers: F Nicolas Batum *Out* (Covid), G Jason Preston *Out* (Foot), F Kawhi Leonard *Out* (Knee)

Los Angeles Lakers: G Avery Bradley *Probable* (Thumb), F Anthony David *Questionable* (Thumb), Lebron James *GTD* (Covid), F Trevor Ariza *Out* (Ankle), G Kendrick Nunn *Out* (Knee)

Recent Form

The Clippers started the month of December with a loss at home to the Kings. The team played without Paul George and struggled to step up offensively, as all five starters combined for just 44 points. In that game, the Clippers were 6-point favorites but ended up losing by nine. Paul George leads the team with 25.9 PPG and leads the team in assists and steals per game as well. After their last game, the team now has six players averaging double-digit points. Los Angeles averages 105.6 PPG offensively and gives up 104.5 PPG defensively, giving the team a 1.1-point differential.

After a 5-5 start through 10 games, the Lakers got back above .500 by winning three of their last four games to end the month of November. The team has had to play 12 games without Lebron, and the lack of leadership on the floor is beginning to show. The Lakers have been notoriously known as the team this season to blow leads, including a few 20+ points leads to the Thunder. A direct result of their inability to close out games is the team’s turnover troubles, averaging over 16 per game. Anthony Davis leads the team in scoring with 24.3 PPG and leads the Lakers also in rebounds, steals, and blocks. The Lakers score 111.6 PPG offensively and allow 113.2 PPG, giving them a -1.6-point differential.

Taking Care of the Ball

A large factor that has led to the disappointing start to both teams’ seasons has been their lack of ball control. Miscues offensively can quickly diminish a lead, or if behind, make the deficit too much to come back from. Looking first at the Clippers, they are 8th worst in the league with 15.1 turnovers per game. Paul George leads the team with 4.3 turnovers a game, which is to be expected when he leads the team in scoring every game and often facilitates the offense. Not too far behind the Clippers are the Lakers at 16.1 turnovers a game, which is 5th worst in the NBA. Russell Westbrook leads the team and NBA point guards in turnovers, averaging 4.7 per game. Lebron James also tends to be messy with the ball when he plays, with 3.7 turnovers a game as well. A benchmark for these teams to hit to give their team the best chance to win is by having less than ten turnovers. Given the Lakers run the offense through Westbrook, I see the Lakers having a hard time keeping the ball. Advantage Clippers in this department, again, so long as they keep it under ten turnovers.

Pace of Play

Pace of play in this one is going to be a lot of quick possessions up and down the court. The Lakers are 1st in the league for pace with 107.7 possessions a game, though thinking about what was mentioned above may be due to their high turnover rate. The Clippers are 11th in the league for pace at 102.5 possessions per game. With the sloppiness of the Lakers and speed up and down the court, this is going to create extra scoring opportunities for Paul George and the Clippers. Advantage Clippers.

Clippers Own Staples Center…as of Late

As the Clippers await their new stadium in Inglewood, they have a chance to close out their long Los Angeles rivalry with the Lakers on a high note. Last season the Clippers swept the Lakers at Staples 3-0 and outscored them by an average of 16.3 points. This game opened in favor of the Clippers but has since moved in favor of the Lakers, with James’ and Davis’ status looking more and more likely to be active. With Lebron and Davis not playing at 100%, though, putting the team in Westbrook’s hands will once again mean Carmelo off the bench is going to have to deliver, opening the door for a Clippers upset. In a small spread of 1.5 points, this game very well could come down to who has the ball in crunch time. Paul George, coming off a game of rest, will come into Staples and have himself a night at the expense of a discombobulated Lakers offense.

The Historicals

Friday night’s game will mark the first time we witness the battle of Los Angeles teams. As mentioned above, the Clippers have won the last three matchups, and going back farther, five of the last seven.

How the Public is Betting the Clippers vs. Lakers

57% are betting the Lakers to cover the spread.
54% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 215.5.

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Betting Trends Worth Noting

• The Los Angeles Clippers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games.
• The Los Angeles Lakers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games.
• The Los Angeles Lakers are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games as a home favorite.
• Under is 7-2 in the Clippers’ last 9 games following a loss.
• Under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings.
• Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
• The Los Angeles Clippers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against the Lakers.

Collin’s Pick for Clippers/Lakers

Friday night features the always sought-after battle of Los Angeles teams. Both teams are having a slower start to the year than they’d like but have an opportunity to climb back to the top of the west with a win. While I believe the Clippers have the slight edge in this one, I see more value in the total. With Paul George and Reggie Jackson being the focal point of the Clippers’ offense, should they be shut down by the Lakers defense, we may see a low-scoring effort from the Clippers. As for the Lakers, with Davis and James not being 100% and the team struggling with turnovers, I think we have the makings of a low-scoring affair with back-and-forth empty possessions. Take the under on the 216 total.