Los Angeles Clippers at Dallas Mavericks Game 3 Pick

Los Angeles Clippers (47-25, 39-32) at Dallas Mavericks (42-30 SU, 35-37 ATS), 5/28/21
When: 9:30 pm ET Friday, May 28
Where: American Airlines Center
TV: ESPN
Point spread: LAC -2/Dall +2
Total: 220

After sweeping the first two games of the best-of-seven Western Conference affair, the Mavericks get the next two in Big D, beginning with Game 3 Friday night. The Mavericks opened this series as +300 underdogs to win it; now they’re lined at -290. Can Dallas put LA away? Are the Clippers worth a wager? And how are we playing Game 3 with our free NBA playoffs pick?

NBA Playoffs Betting Odds

The NBA playoffs betting market opened the Clippers as 1.5-point favorites for Friday night, with an over/under of 220. Early betting action then tipped LA to -2.

For those out there thinking Dallas might win this game outright, BetOnline was offering the Mavs at +125 on its NBA money line.

Clippers-Mavericks NBA Betting Preview

Dallas took the opener of this series last Saturday in Los Angeles 113-103, then won Game 2 Tuesday 127-121. The Mavs won Game 1 outright as six-point dogs on the spread and +205 dogs on the money line, then cashed in at +7 and +245 Tuesday night.

Dallas trailed Los Angeles at the half Wednesday 73-71, then used a 35-19 run out of the locker room to go up.106-94 early in the fourth quarter. The Mavs never let the Clippers get closer than four points after that, hanging on for the impressive victory.

The Mavericks shot 59 percent from the floor Tuesday and hit 18/34 from 3-point land. LA shot 54 percent from the floor but only hit 13/33 from beyond the arc.

Also, Game 2 breezed over a total of 216, but that’s an outlier. The previous four Dallas-Clippers games this season all played under their totals, averaging 204 total points.

In Game 1, the Mavs shot 50 percent from the floor and hit 17-36 from 3-point range, while the Clippers shot 44 percent and only made 11/40 from long range.

So Dallas is shooting the hell out of the ball, Los Angeles, not so much.

Going back about five weeks, the Mavericks are 15-4 SU, 12-7 ATS over their last 19 games.

The Clippers, on the other hand, have lost four games in a row and eight of their last 12.

LA played five games better than Dallas during the regular season, 47-25 to 42-30, but the Mavs took the season series from LA two games to one.

Last year the Clippers beat Dallas in six games in a Western Conference playoff bubble series.

NBA Betting Trends

• Los Angeles played 19-18 SU, 20-17 ATS against teams that made the playoffs this season.
• Los Angeles played 21-15 SU, 18-17 ATS on the road this season.
• Dallas played 22-15 SU, 20-17 ATS against teams that made the playoffs this season.
• Dallas played 21-15 SU, 15-21 ATS at home this season.

Totals Report

Unders played 38-34 in Mavericks games this season, which averaged 223 total points.

Totals split 35-35 in Clippers games this season, which averaged 222 points.

Unders are 4-1 in Mavs-Clippers games this season, which are averaging 213 total points against an average over/under of 223.

Free NBA Pick

Dallas is shooting the ball like crazy in this series so far – 35/70 from 3-point range – but we can’t help believe that trend will lean back towards normal sooner or later. Perhaps as soon as Friday night. Meanwhile, Los Angeles led the league in 3-point shooting during the regular season but is just 24/77 in this series. And you know our line of thinking on that. In the beginning, we figured this series for seven games, and it won’t go seven if LA loses this one. We’re taking the Clippers here. Bet your weekend NBA picks FREE by scoring a huge 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 at MyBookie Sportsbook! (Must use bonus code PREDICT100).