Lakers vs. Timberwolves Game 3 Prediction & Pick (April 25 Playoffs)

Los Angeles Lakers (50-32 SU, 46-37 ATS) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (49-33 SU, 40-43 ATS)

When: Friday, April 25th, 9:30 PM (ET)

Where: Target Center, MN, Minneapolis

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: LAL +3/Min -3

Total: 205.5

Money Line: Los Angeles Lakers +128/-151

Notable Injuries

Lakers

• Maxi Kleber (Out) Foot

Timberwolves

• Rob Dillingham (Out) Ankle

At 9:30 ET, the Minnesota Timberwolves (-151) will host the Los Angeles Lakers (+128) at the Target Center in Minneapolis. ESPN will televise this Western Conference matchup.

Minnesota (-3) is 49-33 overall and 6th in the West. The Lakers are 50-32 and 3rd in the conference. The over/under line for the game is 205.5.

Recent Form

The Lakers improved to 50-32 on the season with a 94-85 win over the Timberwolves on Tuesday. Playing at home, Los Angeles was favored by 5.5 points and covered the spread. The game’s total score of 179 points fell well short of the 211.5-point over/under line.

Los Angeles jumped out to a 34-15 lead after the 1st quarter. Minnesota won the 2nd quarter 28-24, but the Lakers edged them 23-22 in the 3rd. Heading into the 4th quarter with an 81-65 lead, the Lakers held on despite being outscored 20-13 in the final period.

The Timberwolves fell to 49-33 on the season after a 94-85 loss to the Lakers on Tuesday. Minnesota, who entered the game as +5.5 point underdogs, failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game were 179, well below the O/U line of 211.5.

Minnesota struggled early, falling behind 34-15 after the 1st quarter. They outscored the Lakers 28-24 in the 2nd quarter but couldn’t gain much ground in the 3rd, being outscored 23-22. The Timberwolves held the Lakers to just 13 points in the 4th quarter, but their 20 points weren’t enough to complete the comeback.

The Historicals

The ATS record across the previous five head-to-head meetings is 3-2 in favor of the Timberwolves. In these matchups, Minnesota has averaged 102 points per game while allowing 93. Over the course of these games, they averaged 195 points per game, leading a 0-5 over-under record.

Analysis

The Lakers managed just 94 points in their win over the Timberwolves, shooting 45.3% from the field. Their three-point shooting was a struggle, hitting only six threes at a 20.7% clip.

Luka Dončić led the way with 31 points, 16 of which came in the 1st quarter. LeBron James added 21 points, with six coming in the 4th, while Austin Reaves contributed 16, scoring 6 in the 3rd.

The Lakers put on a defensive clinic against the Timberwolves, holding them to just 85 points on Tuesday. They set the tone early, allowing only 15 points in the 1st quarter, and finished strong, giving up 20 points in the 4th. Overall, they limited Minnesota to 38% shooting from the field.

Los Angeles was particularly effective at defending the three-point line, where the Timberwolves made just five threes on 20% shooting. The Lakers controlled the boards with 32 defensive rebounds while allowing nine offensive rebounds. They also added four steals and six blocks.

In their 94-85 loss to the Lakers, the Timberwolves struggled offensively, shooting just 38% from the field and hitting only five threes at a 20% clip. Julius Randle led the way with 27 points, six assists, and four rebounds, shooting 52.9% from the field and 50% from deep.

Anthony Edwards added 25 points and six rebounds, shooting 45.5% overall and making two threes at 25%. Naz Reid was the only other player in double figures, contributing 9 points.

Despite a rough start, the Timberwolves tightened up defensively after the 1st quarter, holding the Lakers to just 60 points over the final three quarters, including a strong 4th where they allowed only 13 points. Minnesota’s defense limited Los Angeles to just 6 made threes on 20% shooting from beyond the arc.

The Timberwolves sent the Lakers to the line 20 times, where they converted all their free throws. On the boards, Minnesota gave up nine offensive rebounds while recording six steals and two blocks.

Betting Trends

• In their last five road games, Los Angeles has averaged 114 points per game while allowing 113. The team’s record in this stretch was 3-2 while going 3-2 vs. the spread.
• In their last five games at home, the Timberwolves have a straight-up record of 3-2 while going 2-3 vs. the spread. The team averaged 112 points per game in this stretch.
• As the betting underdog, the Lakers have an ATS mark of just 1-2 in their last three games. Los Angeles posted a straight-up mark of 1-2 in these matchups.
• As the betting favorite, the Timberwolves have an ATS record of 2-1 in their last three games. In these matchups, their straight-up record was 3-0.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

We hit game two of this series, as the Lakers covered the spread and evened up the series. Now, these teams move to Minneapolis, and the Timberwolves are favored by -3. Yet, I think the Lakers are still the play here, as the combination of Doncic, James, and Austin Reaves is tough for the Wolves to contain. I’m taking the Lakers on the money line at +128.