Lakers vs. Spurs Betting Analysis & Free Pick 11/26/22

Los Angeles Lakers (6-11 SU, 9-7-1 ATS) vs. San Antonio Spurs (6-14 SU, 9-11-0 ATS)
When: Saturday, November 26th, 8:00 PM (ET)
Where: AT&T Center, TX, San Antonio
TV: KENS

Point Spread: LAL -3.5/ SA +3.5
Total: 231.5
Money Line: Los Angeles Lakers -165/ +138

Notable Injuries

Lakers

• Anthony Davis (Probable) Back
• Patrick Beverley (Out) Suspension
• LeBron James (Probable) Adductor
• Juan Toscano-Anderson (Probable) Back

Spurs

• Doug McDermott (Out) Ankle
• Josh Richardson (Out) Ankle
• Zach Collins (Probable) Heel
• Blake Wesley (Out) Knee
• Jordan Hall (Probable) Finger

Recent Form

Heading into the game, Los Angeles is 6-11 overall. When taking to the road, Los Angeles has a mark of 1-6 and a win percentage of 14%. Currently, the team is 13th in the Western Conference. So far, they are 9-7-1 vs. the spread. When looking at how the team has performed of late straight and vs. the spread, they are 4-1 in their past five games and 4-0-1 ATS. Over their past ten games, they are 4-6 SU and 4-5-1 ATS.

In their last game, Los Angeles defeated Spurs (105-94) as 4-point favorites. Anthony Davis led the team with 25 points on 76.9% shooting. The Lakers also covered the spread with the victory.

Heading into the game, San Antonio is 6-14 overall. When playing at home, San Antonio has a mark of 3-7 and a win percentage of 30%. Currently, the team is 14th in the Western Conference. So far, they are 9-11-0 vs. the spread. The Spurs need a win in today’s matchup vs. Los Angeles to avoid their 8th straight loss.

The Historicals

So far, the Lakers and Spurs have met up twice, with Los Angeles winning both times. Both games have been convincing wins for the Lakers, as they picked up a 123-93 win in the first and pulled off a 105-94 victory in the second. Los Angeles also covered the spread in each matchup. Because of San Antonio’s low-scoring numbers, the under has hit in both games.

Analysis

Los Angeles heads into the game as the 20th-ranked scoring offense in the league. On the defensive end of the floor, they are allowing 113 points per game (15th). Right now, their average scoring margin of -2.7 points per contest is 25th in the NBA. So far, their biggest offensive weakness has been outside shooting. This season, they are just 30th in 3-point shooting percentage. On average, the Lakers are making 9.1 3’s per contest. Anthony Davis is the team’s leading scorer at 26.3 points per game to go along with 12.7 rebounds. Lebron James is 2nd on the team at 24.5 points per contest.

Heading into the game, the San Antonio Spurs are 24th in the NBA in scoring at 109.3 points per game. Currently, they have one of the worst scoring margins in the NBA at -10.7 points per game. A key reason for their struggles is that their defense is giving up 120 points per contest (30th). Even though the Spurs play at a fast pace, they struggle with their overall efficiency. This season, they are 22nd in effective field goal percentage. Heading into today’s action, Keldon Johnson is the team’s primary offensive weapon. So far, he is averaging 20.6 points per game.

Betting Trends

• Lakers are 4-1 ATS in their last five after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Lakers are 17-35 ATS in their last 52 games following an ATS win.
• Spurs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
• Spurs are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

It’s very possible that one or both Lebron James and Anthony Davis sit in the second game of a back-to-back. With that being said, I’m locking in the line value early with the Spurs at +3.5.