Lakers vs. Nuggets: Joe’s Pick and Betting Prediction

Los Angeles Lakers (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Denver Nuggets (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)

When: Tuesday, October 24th, 7:30 PM (ET)

Where: Ball Arena, CO, Denver

TV: TNT

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: LAL +5 / Den -5

Total: 228

Money Line: Los Angeles Lakers +177 / -215

Notable Injuries

Lakers

• Jarred Vanderbilt (Out) Heel
• Jalen Hood-Schifino (Out) Patella

Nuggets

• Vlatko Cancar (Out) Knee
• Jay Huff (Questionable) Ribs
• Julian Strawther (Questionable) Ankle

Recent Form

Los Angeles finished last season with a division record of 6-10, an overall record of 43-39, and a win percentage of 52.4%. They secured a conference rank of 7th during the 2022-2023 season.

The Lakers, during the 2022-2023 season, had a record of 43-38-1 in terms of the over/under. Their games witnessed an average combined scoring of 233.8 with an average over/under line of 232.2.

Heading into this season, the Lakers were favored in 31 games during the 2022-2023 season, maintaining an average scoring margin of 5.4 in those instances. They achieved a 19-12 record against the spread when favored, while their record against the spread as underdogs stood at 22-29.

The Nuggets are coming off a season where they achieved a win percentage of 64.6% during the 2022-2023 season. Their overall record stood at 53-29, with a home record of 34-7 and a record of 44-18 when favored.

Heading into this season, the Nuggets had a record of 37-44-1 against the over/under during the 2022-2023 season. The average combined scoring in their games stood at 228.3. In 54 games, the over/under line exceeded 228.

The Nuggets are coming off a season where they had a road record against the spread of 16-25. Their overall record against the spread was 50-32, and their home record against the spread was 34-7.

The Historicals

Across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings between the teams, both Los Angeles and Denver have an ATS record of 2-2-1. The Nuggets hold the edge in average point differential at +7 points per game. Los Angeles and Denver averaged a combined 229 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 2-3.

Analysis

On offense, Los Angeles finished the season leading the NBA with an average of 26.6 free throw attempts per game. They also ranked second in the league with an average of 101.8 possessions per game. In terms of scoring, the Lakers ranked sixth in the NBA with an average of 117.2 points per game.

Los Angeles’ defense is coming off a season where they ranked 20th in points allowed per game, 26th in steals per game, 2nd in three-point percentage allowed, and 9th in field goal percentage allowed.

Last year’s offense ended with the Denver Nuggets scoring an average of 115.8 points per game in the 2022-2023 NBA season, placing them 12th in the league. They had an average of 97.9 possessions per game, ranking 23rd in the NBA. Additionally, the Nuggets attempted an average of 22.4 free throws per game, placing them 24th in the league.

Denver’s defense is coming off a season where they had a steals per game average of 7.5, ranking them 11th in the NBA. They also allowed an average of 112.5 points per game, placing them 8th in the league. Furthermore, Denver allowed an average of 22.7 free throw attempts per game, ranking them 9th in the NBA.

Betting Trends

• Across their last five road contests, Los Angeles has a 3-2 record vs the spread. Their overall mark in these games was 1-4, while averaging 110 points per game.
• Through their last ten home games, Denver has an ATS record of just 6-4. However, their overall record was 6-4 while averaging 115 points per game.
• Going back to their previous five games as the underdog, Los Angeles has an ATS mark of 3-2 while going 1-4 straight up.
• Denver has done well both straight up and vs the spread when favored to win the game, going 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in their last three games.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

My projections have the Nuggets pulling out a 113-106 win over the Lakers. My pick for the spread is Denver at -5, and if you’re looking for an over/under pick, I’d recommend taking the under.