Lakers vs. Nuggets Game 1 Total Pick

Los Angeles Lakers (43-39 SU, 48-44-3 ATS) vs. Denver Nuggets (53-29 SU, 51-41-1 ATS)
When: Tuesday, May 16th, 8:30 PM (ET)
Where: Ball Arena, CO, Denver
TV: ESPN

Point Spread: LAL +6/Den -6
Total: 222
Money Line: Los Angeles Lakers +194/-236

Notable Injuries

Lakers

• Anthony Davis (Probable) Foot
• LeBron James (Probable) Foot
• Mo Bamba (Out) Ankle

Nuggets

• Jamal Murray (Questionable) Illness

Recent Form

Heading into the game, Los Angeles is 43-39 overall. When taking to the road, Los Angeles has a mark of 20-21 and a win percentage of 49%. Currently, the team is 7th in the Western Conference. So far, they are 48-44-3 vs. the spread. When looking at how the team has performed of late straight and vs. the spread, they are 3-2 in their past 5 games and 3-2 ATS. Over their past 10 games, they are 7-3 SU and 7-3 ATS.

The Lakers came away with a win in their last matchup against the Warriors, achieving a 122-101 victory as 3-point favorites. LeBron James led the Lakers with an impressive performance, scoring 30 points on a shooting percentage of 71.4%. In addition to the win, the Lakers also covered the spread.

Heading into the game, Denver is 53-29 overall. When playing at home, Denver has a mark of 34-7 and a win percentage of 83%. Currently, the team is 1st in the Western Conference. So far, they are 51-41-1 vs. the spread. Denver will look to stay hot in today’s game vs. Los Angeles as they are the winners of 2 straight games.

After their win against the Suns, Denver will be looking to continue their momentum. Nikola Jokic had a big game, scoring 32 points to help lead the team to victory. As 1-point underdogs on the spread, the Nuggets were able to come home with an ATS win

The Historicals

In the most recent game between the two teams, the Nuggets picked up a 122-109 win over the Lakers. When looking at the outcome vs. the spread, Denver entered as the 13.0-point favorite, resulting in an ATS push. So far, the two teams have split their season series, with each team at 2-2. Spanning across the last 5 head-to-head matchups, the Lakers and Nuggets have been competitive, with an average margin of victory sitting at just 2 points per game. This has resulted in a 3-1-1 ATS record for Los Angeles. A combined average of 238 points per game was achieved in these matchups, leading to an over-under mark of 2-3.

Analysis

This season, Los Angeles is among the league leaders in scoring, averaging 117.2 points per game. So far, the Lakers are also one of the more up-tempo teams in the league, sitting at 101.8 possessions per game. Los Angeles has struggled with their 3-point shot this season, as they are currently ranked just 35th in 3-point shooting percentage at 34.6%. In addition, they are near the bottom of the league in attempts, at just 31.2 attempts per contest. Defense has been a struggle for Los Angeles, as they are currently allowing 115.15 points per game. In terms of their 3-point defense, opposing teams have hit 35.38% of their looks from deep, placing the Lakers 18th in the NBA.

LeBron James is the top scorer for Los Angeles, averaging 28.9 points per game. This season, his field goal percentage is 50.0%. The team’s second-leading scorer is Anthony Davis, with an average of 25.9 points per game.

This season, the Nuggets’ offense is averaging 115.8 points per game, which is 15th in the NBA. In terms of pace, Denver has been playing at one of the slower tempo’s in the league, averaging just 97.9 possessions per game. Denver has struggled with their 3-point shot this season, as they are currently ranked just 5th in 3-point shooting percentage at 37.9%. In addition, they are near the bottom of the league in attempts, at just 31.2 attempts per contest. On defense, the Nuggets are allowing an average of 110.41 points per game, placing them 14th in the league. So far, they have done a good job defending the 3-point arc, as teams are hitting just 34.42% of their looks from deep.

Heading into this matchup, Denver is in jeopardy of not having Jamal Murray in the lineup as he is questionable. This season, he is the team’s second-leading scorer at 20.0 points per game. So far, Nikola Jokic leads the team in scoring and is averaging 24.5 points per contest.

Betting Trends

• The Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games, playing on three or more days rest.
• The Lakers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.
• The Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a straight-up win of more than 10 points.
• The Nuggets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The home team has dominated this series. However, keep in mind the Lakers have had major changes in personnel, so we can’t really use that data. I believe we’re going to see more defense in this series than most think. Furthermore, bettors are siding with the over to the tune of 70%, yet the line dropped a half point, so other sharp money likes a lower scoring game as well. I’m betting the UNDER 222.5.