Lakers vs Nuggets Betting Preview: Red-Hot LA Getting Too Many Points at Ball Arena”

Los Angeles Lakers (33-21 SU, 29-24 ATS) vs. Denver Nuggets (37-19 SU, 29-26 ATS)

When: Saturday, February 22nd, 8:30 PM (ET)

Where: Ball Arena, CO, Denver

TV: ABC

Point Spread: LAL +7/Den -7

Total: 240.5

Money Line: Los Angeles Lakers +222/-271

Notable Injuries

Lakers

• LeBron James (Probable) Foot
• Maxi Kleber (Out) Foot
• Luka Dončić (Probable) Calf

Nuggets

• Aaron Gordon (Probable) Calf
• Jamal Murray (Probable) Knee
• Vlatko Čančar (Out) Knee
• Peyton Watson (Out) Knee
• DaRon Holmes II (Out) Achilles

At 8:30 ET, the Denver Nuggets will host the Los Angeles Lakers at Ball Arena. The Nuggets are currently favored by 7 points and have won 9 straight games. The over/under line is set at 240.5.

This Western Conference matchup can be seen on ABC. The Lakers are 5th in the West with a 33-21 record, while the Nuggets are 3rd in the conference with a record of 37-19.

Recent Form

The Lakers improved to 33-21 on the season with a 110-102 road win over the Trail Blazers on Thursday. Los Angeles, favored by 2.5 points, covered the spread, while the game’s total of 212 points fell short of the 225-point O/U line.

Los Angeles went on a 10-0 run early, stretching the score from 9-8 to 18-9. After a strong 1st quarter, the Lakers allowed Portland to close the gap in the 2nd and 3rd quarters. Leading 78-77 going into the 4th, the Lakers outscored the Blazers 32-25 in the final period to secure the win.

The Nuggets improved to 37-19 after a 129-115 win over the Hornets on Thursday. Denver was favored by 18 points at home but didn’t cover the spread. The total score of 244 points exceeded the O/U line of 227.5 by 16.5 points.

Denver went on a key 10-0 run, stretching the score from 44-42 to 54-42. After a 38-33 3rd quarter in favor of Charlotte, the Nuggets clamped down in the 4th, holding the Hornets to 19 points while scoring 30 to seal the win.

The Historicals

In terms of betting vs the spread, the Lakers have gone 3-2, but the Nuggets actually have a positive scoring differential. In these meetings, Denver has averaged 111 points per contest while allowing 106. In these contests, they averaged a combined 217 points per game, leading to an over-under mark of 1-4.

Analysis

LeBron James led the Lakers to a win over the Trail Blazers, scoring 40 points and hitting four threes at a 50% rate. He also added eight rebounds and four assists, shooting 58.3% from the field. Austin Reaves contributed 32 points and seven assists despite shooting 42.9% from the floor and 25% from three.

The Lakers hit just nine threes as a team, shooting 28.1% from beyond the arc. Overall, they shot 47.6% from the field. LeBron scored 12 points in each of the final three quarters, while Reaves added 11 points in the 4th.

The Lakers’ defense set the tone early, holding the Trail Blazers to just 15 points in the 1st quarter. Despite giving up 32 points in the 2nd and 30 in the 3rd, they tightened up in the 4th, allowing only 25 points to secure the win. Overall, they held Portland to 102 points on 44% shooting.

From beyond the arc, the Lakers limited the Blazers to 12 threes on 32% shooting. They also sent Portland to the line 21 times, where they hit 14 free throws. The Lakers controlled the boards with 37 defensive rebounds, giving up just six offensive boards while adding seven steals and six blocks.

Jamal Murray’s 34 points and seven threes on 70% shooting from deep helped the Nuggets to a win over the Hornets, with Denver hitting 19 threes at a 44.2% rate. Murray added 13 points in the 1st quarter, while Nikola Jokić contributed 14 of his 29 points in the opening period.

Jokić also added 17 rebounds and nine assists, making six threes in the game. Aaron Gordon chipped in 18 points, and Julian Strawther scored 16, with 8 of those coming in the 2nd quarter.

Defensively, the Nuggets gave up 115 points to the Hornets but managed to hold them to 19 points in the 4th quarter, securing the win. Overall, Denver allowed Charlotte to shoot 43% from the field.

From beyond the arc, the Hornets hit 15 threes at a 40% clip. Denver sent Charlotte to the line 17 times, where they made 14 free throws. The Nuggets finished with 39 defensive rebounds while allowing 14 offensive boards.

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past three road matchups, Los Angeles has an ATS record of 2-1 while averaging 117 per game. The team went 2-1 overall in these games.
• In their last three home games, the Nuggets have a straight-up record of 3-0 while going 1-2 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 122 points per game in these contests.
• The Lakers have played well in their last three games as the betting underdog, going 3-0 straight up and 3-0 against the spread.
• In their last five games as the betting favorite, the Nuggets have a strong straight up record of 5-0. In addition, their ATS record was 4-1 in these scenarios.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

After a disappointing loss to the Hornets on Wednesday, the Lakers bounced back with a win over the Trail Blazers on Thursday. The Nuggets played both the Blazers and Hornets on opposite days of the Lakers and cruised to easy wins in both matchups. Now, they are favored by -7, as they host LA tonight. Even though I see Denver winning this one, I expect James and Doncic to have big games, and keep the Lakers within this number, I’m taking LA +7.