Lakers vs. Mavericks Prediction: Will LA Cover on the Road? 4/9/25

Los Angeles Lakers (48-31 SU, 43-35 ATS) vs. Dallas Mavericks (38-41 SU, 37-40 ATS)

When: Wednesday, April 9th, 7:30 PM (ET)

Where: American Airlines Center, TX, Dallas

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: LAL -4/Dal +4

Total: 227

Money Line: Los Angeles Lakers -176/+147

Notable Injuries

Lakers

• Maxi Kleber (Out) Foot
• Rui Hachimura (Questionable) Knee
• Bronny James Jr. (Questionable) Illness

Mavericks

• Anthony Davis (Probable) Adductor
• Kyrie Irving (Out) Knee
• Dante Exum (Questionable) Hand
• Jaden Hardy (Out) Leg
• Olivier-Maxence Prosper (Out) Wrist

The Los Angeles Lakers (-176) are favored by 4 points (-4) as they travel to Dallas to take on the Mavericks (+147). The over/under line for the game is 227.

Los Angeles comes into the game with a record of 48-31 and is currently 3rd in the Western Conference. The Mavericks are 10th in the West and have lost two straight games.

Recent Form

The Lakers fell to 48-31 on the season after a 136-120 road loss to the Thunder on Tuesday. LA entered the game as +9.5 point underdogs but couldn’t cover the spread, losing by 16. The total points for the game hit 256, well over the pre-game line of 230.

After a 43-43 first quarter, the Thunder went on a 10-0 run, pushing the score from 54-52 to 64-52. The Lakers battled back in the 3rd, outscoring OKC 26-17, but the Thunder dominated the 4th quarter, outscoring LA 39-22 to close out the game.

The Mavericks fell to 38-41 on the season after a 135-104 road loss to the Clippers on Saturday. Dallas, who entered the game as +9.5 point underdogs, failed to cover the spread, losing by 31 points. The total score of 239 points exceeded the over/under line of 221.5 by 17.5 points.

The Clippers jumped out to a 25-9 lead with a 12-0 run early in the game. Dallas narrowed the gap in the 2nd quarter, outscoring the Clippers 31-28, but LA pulled away in the 3rd, outscoring the Mavericks 44-30. Dallas went into the 4th quarter down 105-82 and was outscored 30-22 in the final period.

The Historicals

The level of competition has been tight in the five most recent games between the Lakers and Mavericks, with just 0 points per game separating the teams. Dallas has the ATS edge in this span at 4-1. The over-under record in these same games is 1-4, with the teams combining for an average of 222 points per game.

Analysis

In their 136-120 loss to the Thunder, the Lakers hit 18 threes at a 45% clip, though their overall shooting was just 46.2%. LeBron James led the way with 28 points, while Austin Reaves added 24, knocking down four threes at 57.1% efficiency.

Reaves was a standout in the 1st quarter, scoring 15 points. Luka Dončić contributed 23 points, with 11 coming in the opening period, and Dorian Finney-Smith added 9 of his 12 points in the 1st quarter.

The Lakers struggled defensively against the Thunder on Tuesday, giving up 136 points in the loss. They allowed 43 points in the 1st quarter and 37 in the 2nd but tightened up in the 3rd, holding Oklahoma City to 17 points. However, the Thunder bounced back with 39 points in the 4th.

Oklahoma City shot 50% from the field, including 48% from three-point range, where they made 18 threes. The Lakers sent the Thunder to the line 20 times, with Oklahoma City making 14 free throws. Los Angeles recorded 33 defensive rebounds but gave up 15 offensive boards while also tallying two steals and six blocks.

In their 135-104 loss to the Clippers, the Mavericks struggled offensively, shooting just 43.6% from the field and hitting only seven threes at a 25.9% rate. Anthony Davis led the way with 27 points and nine rebounds, though he shot 42.1% from the floor.

Kai Jones was perfect from the field, finishing with 18 points, while Klay Thompson added 14, making four threes at a 50% clip. Davis scored 11 points in the 1st quarter, while Jones contributed 6 in the 4th.

The Mavericks struggled defensively against the Clippers, giving up 135 points on Saturday. Their toughest stretch came in the 3rd quarter, where they allowed 44 points. Overall, the Clippers shot 56% from the field.

Dallas did manage to limit the Clippers’ three-point shooting, allowing 11 made threes on 39% shooting. The Mavericks sent the Clippers to the line 20 times, where they hit 16 free throws.

Betting Trends

• Through their last five road games, Los Angeles has an ATS record of just 2-3. However, their overall record was 3-2 while averaging 123 points per game.
• Across the Mavericks’ last five home games, the team averaged 105 points per game while allowing 117. Their record vs. the spread in these contests was 2-3 while going 2-3 straight-up.
• In their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Mavericks have a straight-up record of 4-6 and an ATS mark of 5-5.
• In their last three games as the betting favorite, the Lakers have a strong straight up record of 2-1. In addition, their ATS record was 2-1 in these scenarios.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

At first glance, this line sitting at just -4 in favor of the Lakers is surprising. However, the Lakers are playing on back-to-back nights, and the Mavericks have Anthony Davis back in the fold, and he is coming off a 27-point, 9-rebound night in just 27 minutes of action. But even with LA playing on short rest, I don’t think the Mavs have enough to cover this line. I like the Lakers -4.