Lakers vs. Kings: Betting Analysis for Key Western Clash

Los Angeles Lakers (36-30 SU, 30-36 ATS) vs. Sacramento Kings (37-27 SU, 32-32 ATS)

When: Wednesday, March 13th, 10:00 PM (ET)

Where: Golden 1 Center, CA, Sacramento

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: LAL -1.5/Sac +1.5

Total: 238.5

Money Line: Los Angeles Lakers -120/-101

Notable Injuries

Lakers

• Anthony Davis (Probable) Achilles
• LeBron James (Questionable) Ankle
• Christian Wood (Out) Knee
• Jarred Vanderbilt (Out) Foot
• Gabe Vincent (Out) Knee
• Cam Reddish (Out) Ankle
• Colin Castleton (Out) Wrist

Kings

• Trey Lyles (Questionable) Knee
• Sasha Vezenkov (Out) Ankle
• Keegan Murray (Questionable) Ankle

At 10:00 ET, the 9th place Lakers (-120) will travel to Sacramento to take on the 7th place Kings (-101). ESPN will have the TV coverage for this Western Pacific Division matchup.

The over/under line for this game is currently set at 238.5. The Lakers come into this game on a 2-game win streak, while the Kings are 37-27 and in 3rd place in the Pacific Division.

Recent Form

In their last two games, the Lakers have covered the spread and have an ATS record of 30-36 for the season. Today, they are favored by 1.5 points and have gone 14-20 ATS as the favorite.

The Lakers have a straight-up record of 36-30, which has them in 9th place in the Western Conference. In the Pacific Division, they are 4th. In non-conference games, the Lakers are 12-9 and 24-11 at home compared to 12-19 on the road.

Looking at the Lakers’ O/U record for the season, they are 37-29, and the over has hit in their last three games. This season, their games have averaged 234.9 points per game, and today’s O/U line is set at 238.5.

Los Angeles’ most recent win came against the Timberwolves, with the Lakers winning by a score of 120-109. The O/U line for that game was 224.5. Going into the game, the Lakers were favored by 5 points.

Sacramento has won two straight games as the underdog and is 9-11 as the underdog this season. In Western Conference games, they are 25-17 and 12-10 in non-conference games.

The Kings’ ATS record for the season is 32-32, including going 20-14 on the road and 12-18 at home. They have covered the spread in their last two road games.

This season, the Kings have an O/U record of 33-30-1, and their games have averaged 235.9 points per game. Today’s O/U line of 238.5 is higher than 43 of their games.

In their most recent game, the Kings defeated the Bucks by a score of 129-94. Sacramento was favored by 2 points in that game, and the O/U line was 236.

Sacramento is currently in 7th place in the Western Conference with a record of 37-27. At home, the Kings are 18-12 compared to 19-15 on the road.

The Historicals

Over the last 5 head to head meetings, the Kings have averaged 127 points per game compared to 120 for Los Angeles. This has led to an ATS record of 4-1 for Sacramento. Over the course of these games, they averaged 247 points per game, leading a 3-2 over-under record.

Analysis

Heading into the game, the Lakers are 10th in the league in scoring at 117.3 points per game. However, they have been better at home, averaging 118.2 points compared to 116.2 on the road. Overall, they have outscored the NBA scoring average in 53% of their games.

One reason for the Lakers’ success on offense has been their efficient shooting. They are third in the league in field goal percentage at 49% and have a true shooting percentage of 7th. However, they are last in the league in three-point attempts and are 26th in three-point makes at 11.6 per game.

When it comes to getting to the free-throw line, the Lakers are 6th in attempts at 23.9 per game. In terms of pace, they are 4th in the league at 100.9 possessions per game.

Coming into the game, the Lakers’ defense has finished two straight games with an increased number of points allowed. Overall, they are 22nd in the league at 117.6 points per game allowed. Most recently, the Lakers’ defense put together a solid performance, giving up just 109 points to the Timberwolves.

When playing at home, the Kings are averaging 121.1 points per game, which is 7th in the NBA. Overall, they are 8th in the league, with 118.4 points per game.

In terms of three-point shooting, Sacramento is 4th in both three-point attempts and makes. However, they are just 15th in three-point shooting percentage at 36%.

So far this season, the Kings have outscored the NBA scoring average in 64.1% of their games. When it comes to free throws, Sacramento is 28th in makes and 23rd in attempts.

So far, the Kings’ defense is ranked 21st in the league at 117.5 points per contest. Inside the arc, the Kings defense is giving up a shooting percentage of 54.5% and 39.2% from three-point territory.

Betting Trends

• In their last three games away from home, the Lakers have a straight-up record of 1-2 while going 1-2 vs. the spread. The team averaged 113 points per game in this stretch.
• In their last ten games at home, the Kings have a straight-up record of 6-4 while going 6-4 vs. the spread. The team averaged 117 points per game in this stretch.
• As the betting underdog, the Kings have an ATS mark of just 5-5 in their last ten games. Sacramento posted a straight-up mark of 5-5 in these matchups.
• Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the favorite, the Lakers have a straight-up record of 7-3. Their record vs the spread in these games was 4-6.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

This is a big game in the Western Conference, as the Lakers trail the Kings by two games for the seventh seed. The Lakers have won two straight, while the Kings are coming off a blowout win over the Bucks. I like the Lakers to cover at -1.5 in this one, as they’ve been off since Sunday’s big win over the Wolves, and the Kings are playing on back-to-back nights.