Lakers vs. Timberwolves: Expert NBA Predictions and Best Bets

Los Angeles Lakers (12-8 SU, 8-12 ATS) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (9-10 SU, 6-13 ATS)

When: Monday, December 2nd, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: Target Center, MN, Minneapolis

TV: NBA

Point Spread: LAL +7.5/Min -7.5

Total: 221.5

Money Line: Los Angeles Lakers +233/-285

Notable Injuries

Lakers

• D’Angelo Russell (Questionable) Illness
• Christian Wood (Out) Knee
• Jarred Vanderbilt (Out) Foot
• Jaxson Hayes (Questionable) Ankle
• Cam Reddish (Questionable) Illness
• Austin Reaves (Questionable) Back
• Bronny James Jr. (Out) Heel

Timberwolves

• Joe Ingles (Out) Calf

At 8:00 ET, the Timberwolves (-285) will host the Lakers (+233) in a Western Conference matchup. Minnesota is favored by 7.5 points, and the over/under line is 221.5.

Los Angeles is 12-8 and 6th in the West, while Minnesota is 9-10 and 11th in the conference. The game will be played at the Target Center in Minneapolis and can be seen on NBA TV.

Recent Form

The Lakers improved to 12-8 this season with a 105-104 win over the Jazz on Sunday. L.A. was favored by 5 points but didn’t cover the spread, and the game’s total of 209 points fell short of the 225.5-point O/U line.

After trailing 27-26 in the 1st quarter, the Lakers took control by winning the 2nd and 3rd quarters, leading 86-81 going into the 4th. However, the Jazz outscored them 23-19 in the final period, making it a close finish.

With a 93-92 win over the Clippers on Friday, the Timberwolves improved to 9-10 for the season. Playing at home, Minnesota was favored by 6.5 points but didn’t cover the spread. The game’s total points of 185 fell well short of the 212.5 O/U line.

After leading 72-68 going into the 4th quarter, the Timberwolves allowed a 10-0 run by the Clippers. However, they managed to rally and secure the win.

The Historicals

Through the last five matchups between the teams, Los Angeles has an ATS mark of 4-1. But, looking at the scoring margin in these games, an average of just 1 point per game separates the teams. Los Angeles and Minnesota averaged a combined 225 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 3-2.

Analysis

In their win over the Jazz, the Lakers managed just seven threes, shooting 21.2% from beyond the arc and 44.3% overall. Anthony Davis led the way with 33 points and 11 rebounds, hitting 52% from the field and two threes at 50% efficiency.

LeBron James contributed 27 points and 14 assists, adding 10 points in the 4th quarter. Davis scored 16 points in the 3rd, while Rui Hachimura added 6 of his 13 points in the final period.

Even with the Jazz shooting 50% from the field, the Lakers held them to 104 points, thanks to a strong defensive effort in the 4th quarter, where they allowed just 23 points. Los Angeles also limited Utah’s three-point shooting, giving up 14 threes on 35% shooting.

The Lakers sent the Jazz to the free-throw line 16 times, where they made ten shots. On the boards, Los Angeles grabbed 32 defensive rebounds while allowing eight offensive rebounds. They also contributed seven steals and four blocks in the game.

Anthony Edwards led the Timberwolves with 21 points in their 93-92 win over the Clippers despite shooting just 33.3% from the field. Edwards hit four threes at a 44.4% clip, while Mike Conley added 13 points and 3 made threes, shooting 60% from deep.

As a team, Minnesota made 15 threes, shooting 38.5% from beyond the arc, while their overall field goal percentage was just 41.3%. Nickeil Alexander-Walker contributed 12 points and ten rebounds, and Jaden McDaniels and Julius Randle each added 11 points.

The Timberwolves put on a defensive clinic against the Clippers, holding them to just 92 points in their win on Friday. Minnesota gave up 25 points in the 1st quarter but tightened up after that, allowing just 22 points in the 2nd, 21 in the 3rd, and 24 in the 4th.

Overall, the Timberwolves limited the Clippers to 42% shooting, including just ten made threes on 32% shooting from deep. Minnesota also sent the Clippers to the line only 13 times, where they made ten free throws. The Timberwolves finished with 38 defensive rebounds, gave up eight offensive boards, and added eight steals and five blocks.

Betting Trends

• Across the Lakers’ last ten road games, the team averaged 111 points per game while allowing 116. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 3-7 while going 5-5 straight-up.
• When looking at their past ten home matchups, Minnesota has an ATS record of 5-5 while averaging 110 per game. The team went 4-6 overall in these games.
• In their last three games as the betting underdog, the Lakers have a straight-up record of 0-3 and an ATS mark of 0-3.
• The last three games that Minnesota was favored, they have an ATS mark of 0-3 while going 1-2 straight up.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Timberwolves have been off since Friday, while the Lakers are playing on back-to-back nights after squeaking by Utah last night. Not only do they have a lengthy injury report already, but I expect the Lakers to be mindful of the workload they give James and Davis tonight. Although it seems like a big number, I like Minnesota at -7.5 in this one.