Lakers vs. Pacers Betting Prediction: Does Hot Indiana Offer Moneyline Value?

Los Angeles Lakers (43-28 SU, 39-31 ATS) vs. Indiana Pacers (42-29 SU, 32-37 ATS)

When: Wednesday, March 26th, 7:30 PM (ET)

Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, IN, Indianapolis

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: LAL -1.5/Ind +1.5

Total: 235

Money Line: Los Angeles Lakers -122/+103

Notable Injuries

Lakers

• LeBron James (Probable) Groin
• Maxi Kleber (Out) Foot
• Rui Hachimura (Probable) Knee

Pacers

• Isaiah Jackson (Out) Achilles

At 7:30 ET, the Lakers (-122) will travel to Indianapolis to take on the Pacers (+103) in a non-conference matchup. The Lakers are currently favored by 1.5 points and will look to snap a three-game losing streak. The Pacers, on the other hand, have won five straight and are 4th in the Eastern Conference.

This game will be played at Gainbridge Fieldhouse and can be seen on ESPN. The over/under line is currently set at 235 points.

Recent Form

The Lakers fell to 43-28 on the season after a 118-106 road loss to the Magic on Monday. Los Angeles entered the game as 4-point favorites but couldn’t cover the spread, losing by 12. The total score of 224 points exceeded the over/under line of 217.5 by 6.5 points.

Los Angeles went on an 11-0 run to extend their lead from 44-40 to 55-40, but Orlando responded by outscoring the Lakers 34-18 in the 3rd quarter. The Lakers trailed 92-78 going into the 4th and couldn’t mount a comeback despite outscoring the Magic 28-26 in the final period.

The Pacers improved to 42-29 on the season with a 119-103 win over the Timberwolves on Monday. Indiana, who entered the game as +1.5 point underdogs, covered the spread with the win. The game’s total score of 222 points fell short of the 230.5-point O/U line.

Indiana took control in the 3rd quarter, outscoring Minnesota 41-25. A 12-0 run helped extend their lead from 67-57 to 79-57. The Pacers eased up in the 4th, getting outscored 30-24, but their 95-73 lead heading into the final period was more than enough to secure the win.

The Historicals

Through the last five matchups between the teams, Indiana has an ATS mark of 3-2. But, looking at the scoring margin in these games, an average of just 1 point per game separates the teams. Los Angeles and Indiana averaged a combined 237 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 2-3.

Analysis

In the Lakers’ 118-106 loss to the Magic, Luka Dončić led the way with 32 points, seven rebounds, and seven assists, shooting 39.1% from the field and hitting four threes at a 40% rate. LeBron James contributed 24 points, seven assists, and six rebounds, shooting 50%, while Austin Reaves added 18 points and six rebounds, shooting 43.8%.

As a team, the Lakers shot 46.2% from the field and made 10 threes, shooting 31.2% from beyond the arc. Dončić scored 11 points in the 1st quarter and 10 in the 2nd, while Reaves and Dorian Finney-Smith each added 6 points in the 4th quarter.

Defensively, the Lakers gave up 118 points to the Magic, who shot 49% from the field. Los Angeles allowed 26 points in both the 1st and 4th quarters but struggled in the 2nd and 3rd, giving up 32 and 34 points, respectively.

From beyond the arc, the Lakers allowed Orlando to hit 15 threes at a 37% clip. The Magic also went 19/23 from the free-throw line. The Lakers finished with 28 defensive rebounds, gave up 12 offensive boards, and recorded seven steals.

Tyrese Haliburton led the Pacers with 24 points and 11 assists in their 119-103 win over the Timberwolves, shooting 56.2% from the field and hitting three threes at 42.9%. Obi Toppin contributed 20 points, connecting on six threes at 66.7% shooting from deep and 70% overall.

Aaron Nesmith added 17 points, making three threes without a miss and shooting 77.8% from the field. The Pacers shot 48.9% overall, hitting 13 threes at 37.1%, with Haliburton scoring 13 points in the 3rd quarter.

The Pacers’ defense held the Timberwolves to 103 points on Monday, with consistent efforts in the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd quarters, giving up just 23, 25, and 25 points, respectively. Indiana’s defense was particularly effective in limiting Minnesota’s three-point shooting, allowing just nine threes on 25% shooting.

Indiana also sent the Timberwolves to the line only 10 times, where they made six free throws. The Pacers grabbed 37 defensive rebounds, allowing nine offensive boards while also recording nine steals and five blocks.

Betting Trends

• Through their last ten road contests, the Lakers’ offense has averaged 114 points per game while allowing an average of 113. Los Angeles posted an overall record of 4-6 while going 5-5 ATS.
• Across their five previous home games, Indiana has an ATS mark of 1-4. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 2-3 while averaging 116 points per game.
• The last ten games that Indiana was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 5-5 while going 5-5 straight up.
• Going back to their previous three games as the favorite, Los Angeles has an ATS mark of 1-2 while going 1-2 straight up.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Even though these teams have been going in opposite directions of late, the Pacers are still +1.5-point dogs at home. Even with the return of Lebron James, the Lakers have still been struggling. Everyone knows Indiana isn’t interested in playing defense, but I don’t see that being a problem tonight, as they should be able to run and gun their way to a win. I like Indiana on the money line.