Lakers’ Short-Handed: Bucks Point Spread Prediction & Best Bet Analysis

Los Angeles Lakers (40-23 SU, 35-27 ATS) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (36-28 SU, 29-33 ATS)

When: Thursday, March 13th, 7:30 PM (ET)

Where: Fiserv Forum, WI, Milwaukee

TV: TNT

Point Spread: LAL +6/Mil -6

Total: 225.5

Money Line: Los Angeles Lakers +188/-226

Notable Injuries

Lakers

• LeBron James (Out) Groin
• Maxi Kleber (Out) Foot
• Luka Dončić (Questionable) Ankle
• Jaxson Hayes (Out) Knee
• Rui Hachimura (Out) Knee

Bucks

• Giannis Antetokounmpo (Probable) Calf
• Damian Lillard (Probable) Groin
• Bobby Portis (Out) Suspension
• Chris Livingston (Questionable) Illness
• Tyler Smith (Doubtful) Back

At 7:30 ET, the Milwaukee Bucks (-226) will host the Los Angeles Lakers (+188) in a non-conference matchup. The Bucks are currently favored by 6 points, and the over/under line is set at 225.5.

This game will be played at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee and can be seen on TNT. The Lakers are 40-23 and have lost two straight games, while the Bucks are 36-28 and have lost three in a row. Los Angeles is 4th in the Western Conference, and Milwaukee is 4th in the East.

Recent Form

The Lakers fell to 40-23 on the season after a 111-108 road loss to the Nets on Monday. Los Angeles, who entered the game as 5.5-point favorites, failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game reached 219, just over the 217.5-point line.

After jumping out to a 28-16 lead in the 1st quarter, the Lakers were outscored 32-19 in the 2nd. They trailed 81-79 going into the 4th quarter, where they were edged out 30-29.

Milwaukee’s record dropped to 36-28 after a 115-114 road loss to the Pacers on Tuesday. The Bucks were +1 point underdogs, and the game ended in a push. The total score of 229 points fell short of the 237.5 O/U line.

Milwaukee went on a 12-0 run, extending their lead from 47-37 to 59-37. However, the Pacers fought back, and the game was tied at 88 heading into the 4th quarter. Indiana edged out the Bucks 27-26 in the final period to secure the win.

The Historicals

When looking at how these teams have performed vs the spread in recent matchups, the Lakers have an ATS mark of 3-2. Yet, the Bucks have averaged more points per game in these contests, at 124 compared to Milwaukee at 121. A combined average of 245 points per game was achieved in these matchups, leading to an over-under mark of 4-1.

Analysis

Gabe Vincent led the Lakers with 24 points and six threes, shooting 66.7% from the field in their 111-108 loss to the Nets. Vincent hit 13 points in the 1st quarter and added 6 more in the 3rd. Luka Dončić contributed 22 points, 12 rebounds, and 12 assists despite shooting just 30.8% from the floor.

The Lakers made 19 threes, shooting 47.5% from deep, though their overall field goal percentage was just 43.5%. Austin Reaves and Jordan Goodwin each scored 17 points, with Reaves adding 9 in the 4th quarter and Goodwin scoring 11 in the 2nd.

The Lakers started strong defensively, holding the Nets to just 16 points in the 1st quarter, but they gave up 32 points in the 2nd and 33 in the 3rd, leading to a 111-108 loss. Despite the loss, they held the Nets to 41% shooting overall.

However, the Lakers struggled to defend the three-point line, allowing 18 made threes at a 40% clip. They also sent the Nets to the free-throw line 30 times, where Brooklyn made 19. The Lakers finished with 35 defensive rebounds but gave up 16 offensive boards.

Brook Lopez led the Bucks with 23 points, shooting 81.8% from the field in their 115-114 loss to the Pacers. Giannis Antetokounmpo added 19 points and 17 rebounds, hitting 64.3% of his shots, while Taurean Prince contributed 18 points, knocking down four threes at a 50% clip.

Milwaukee shot 51.2% from the field and 38.9% from beyond the arc, making 14 threes. Lopez scored 11 points in the 4th quarter, while Damian Lillard also added 11 of his 15 points in the 3rd.

Defensively, the Bucks gave up 115 points in their loss to the Pacers, with Indiana shooting 50% from the field. Milwaukee allowed 32 points in the 1st quarter and 31 in the 3rd, but they tightened up in the 2nd and 4th quarters, giving up 25 and 27 points, respectively.

The Bucks did a solid job defending the three, holding the Pacers to 13 made threes on 33% shooting. They sent Indiana to the line 18 times, where they hit 14 free throws. Milwaukee finished with 38 defensive rebounds, allowing five offensive boards, and recorded four steals and two blocks.

Betting Trends

• Through their last five road games, Los Angeles has an ATS record of just 2-3. However, their overall record was 2-3 while averaging 112 points per game.
• When looking at their past ten home matchups, Milwaukee has an ATS record of 3-6-1 while averaging 111 per game. The team went 5-5 overall in these games.
• In their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Lakers have a straight-up record of 6-4 and an ATS mark of 7-3.
• As the betting favorite, the Bucks have an ATS record of 4-1 in their last five games. In these matchups, their straight-up record was 4-1.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

The Bucks have dropped 3 in a row after looking like they were starting to put everything together. Milwaukee’s additions at the trade deadline looked like they were going to help Milwaukee take the next step and get back to being the team many thought they would be to start the season. But they are still as inconsistent as ever. Luckily, tonight, they are facing a really banged-up Lakers unit, and I see them getting back on track. I like the Bucks to win and cover.