LA Lakers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Prediction for Dec 30, 2023

Los Angeles Lakers (17-15 SU, 14-18 ATS) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (23-7 SU, 15-14 ATS)

When: Saturday, December 30th, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: Target Center, MN, Minneapolis

TV: BSN

Point Spread: LAL +3.5/Min -3.5

Total: 226.5

Money Line: Los Angeles Lakers +141/-169

Notable Injuries

Lakers

• Anthony Davis (Questionable) Ankle
• LeBron James (Questionable) Left Knee
• Gabe Vincent (Out) Knee
• Cam Reddish (Probable) Groin

Timberwolves

• Karl-Anthony Towns (Questionable) Knee
• Jaylen Clark (Out) Achilles

Recent Form

In the Western Conference, the Lakers are 8th and sit 3rd in the Pacific Division on a record of 17-15. If they are going to pick up a win today, they’ll need to do so as the 3.5-point underdogs.

When playing on the road, Los Angeles has gone just 6-11 for the season. The Lakers’ games have also been slightly higher scoring on the road, with an average of 229.2 points compared to the over/under lines of 229.3.

Los Angeles has an over/under record of 17-15 for the season, and the over has hit in five straight games for them. Today’s over/under line of 226.5 is slightly below their average over/under line of 229.3. The Lakers have gone 12-7 with lower over/under lines than 226.5.

Through 32 games, the Lakers have gone 14-18 against the spread on the road and have covered the spread in two straight games as the away team. So far, they have been the underdogs in 12 of their 32 games.

As the Timberwolves get ready to host the Lakers, they are the betting favorite at -3.5. Overall, the Timberwolves are 1st in the West on a record of 23-7. Against other teams in the West, Minnesota has gone 16-4 this season.

When playing at home, the Timberwolves have been dominant. Their average scoring margin at home is +11.6 points per game, and they have won six straight games at home. For the season, they are 13-1 at home.

Minnesota’s ATS record of 15-14 includes two straight losses at home. The team’s average over/under record for the season is 17-13, and the over has hit in each of their last two games. Today’s line of 226.5 is just below their average over/under line of 223.3.

The Historicals

The level of competition has been tight in the five most recent games between Lakers and Timberwolves, with just -1 points per game separating the teams. Minnesota has the ATS edge in this span at 3-2. The over-under record in these same games is 2-3, with the teams combining for an average of 219 points per game.

Analysis

In their most recent game vs. the Hornets, the Lakers put up 133 points. Overall, they shot 53.6% from the field and hit 15 threes. When looking at the bigger picture, the Lakers haven’t relied heavily on three-pointers, as they average just 30.6 attempts per game. Their overall field goal percentage is 48% and they average 100.7 possessions per game.

At present, the Lakers’ defense is ranked 15th, allowing 114.5 points per game. When it comes to defending inside the arc, the Lakers squad is permitting opposing teams to shoot at a clip of 52.7% inside the arc, and they’re also giving up 37.5% from downtown.

The Timberwolves are coming off a game where they scored 118 points vs the Mavericks. They shot 51.4% from the field and knocked down 17 threes. In terms of scoring, Anthony Edwards leads the team with 25.9 PPG, while Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 21.6 PPG.

So far, the Timberwolves’ defense is ranked 1st in the league at 107.4 points per contest. The Timberwolves defense is coming off a game in which they held the Mavericks offense to just 51.4% shooting. Overall, they gave up 110 points to Dallas.

Betting Trends

• Through their last ten road games, Los Angeles has an ATS record of just 4-6. However, their overall record was 4-6 while averaging 116 points per game.
• Although Minnesota has a straight-up record of 1-2 in their last three home games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 1-2. The team averaged 109 points per game in these games.
• Looking back on the team’s last three games as the underdog, the Lakers have a straight-up record of 1-2. Their record vs the spread in these games was 2-1.
• Going back to their last ten games as the favorite, the Timberwolves have a straight-up record of 10-0. But their mark vs the spread was just 5-5.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Even without Karl-Anthony Towns, I love the Timberwolves in this spot for LA. Rudy Gobert should be able to make things tough for Anthony Davis, who is also questionable heading into the game. Teams have had a tough time all year taking on the Wolves in Minneapolis. I like Minnesota to cover.