LA Clippers vs. Miami Heat Pick & Prediction ATS | Jan 4, 2024

Los Angeles Clippers (32-15 SU, 26-21 ATS) vs. Miami Heat (26-23 SU, 20-26 ATS)

When: Sunday, February 4th, 6:00 PM (ET)

Where: Kaseya Center, FL, Miami

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: LAC -4/Mia +4

Total: 226

Money Line: Los Angeles Clippers -177/+146

Notable Injuries

Clippers

• Ivica Zubac (Questionable) Calf
• Moussa Diabate (Out) Hand

Heat

• Duncan Robinson (Out) Concussion
• Dru Smith (Out) Knee
• Jamal Cain (Questionable) Illness

At 6:00 ET on ESPN, the Clippers (-177) will visit the Heat (+146) in a non-conference matchup. The Clippers are favored by 4 points and the over/under line for the game is 226.

Los Angeles is 32-15 and 3rd in the Western Conference. They have won 2 in a row. Miami is 26-23 and 7th in the East. They have also won 2 straight.

Recent Form

The Clippers are currently favored by 4 points against the Heat and have a record of 31-7 as the favorite this season. In their last two games, they have covered the spread and have an ATS record of 24-14 as the favorite.

This season, the Clippers have an average scoring differential of +10.3 points per game as the favorite. Today’s O/U line of 226 is lower than the team’s season average of 230.2.

In their most recent game against the Pistons, the Clippers won by a score of 136-125. The O/U line for that game was 239 points. LA was favored by 12 points in that game, but they did not cover the spread.

The Clippers are currently 32-15 overall, which is good for 3rd place in the Western Conference. Against the West, they are 21-11 compared to 11-4 against the East. On the road, the Clippers are 13-11.

On average, the Clippers’ games have finished with a combined scoring total of 230.5 points per game. This season, their games have averaged an O/U line of 230.2 points.

Miami is currently 26-23 overall and has won two straight games. In the Eastern Conference, they are in 7th place and are 1st in the Southeast Division.

As the underdog, Miami has lost four straight games against the spread. Today, they are getting 4 points at home. Overall, they are 6-13 as the underdog this season.

In their last game, the Heat beat the Wizards by a score of 110-102. They were favored by 8 points in that game, resulting in a push against the spread.

In Miami’s games this season, the average over/under line is 222.7, which is lower than today’s line of 226. The under has also hit in three straight games for the Heat.

In non-conference games, Miami has gone 7-8 compared to 19-15 against the Eastern Conference. Their ATS record at home is 9-15, and their straight-up home record is 13-11.

The Historicals

Spanning across the last 5 head-to-head matchups, the Clippers and Heat have been competitive, with an average margin of victory sitting at just 0 points per game. This has resulted in a 3-2 ATS record for Los Angeles. In these matchups, the teams have put together an over-under mark of 3-2. Combined, they averaged 222 points in these games.

Analysis

The Clippers’ offense is currently 9th in the NBA, averaging 118.5 points per game. They have scored 118.2 points per game on the road this season.

Los Angeles is 5th in the league in field goal percentage at 49%. They are also 5th in true shooting percentage.

When it comes to three-point shooting, the Clippers are 1st in three-point percentage at 39%. However, they are just 20th in three-point attempts per game.

Currently, the Clippers’ defense holds the 8th rank in the NBA, allowing 112.0 points per game. When it comes to forced turnovers, the Clippers are forcing 12 per game, which is 7th in the league. They also come into the game sitting 14th in blocked shots at 5.4 per game.

In terms of scoring, the Heat are currently 27th in the NBA with 110.4 points per game. At home, they are averaging 113.7 points per game, which is 23rd in the league.

When it comes to pace, Miami is 28th in the NBA at 96.3 possessions per game. In terms of field goal percentage, they are 26th in the league at 46%.

So far this season, the Heat have made an average of 12.4 three-pointers per game, which is 16th in the NBA. They are also 6th in the league in free throw attempts, averaging 23.5 per game.

This season, the Heat’s defense is the 7th ranked defense in the NBA at 7th PPG. So far, they have held opposing offenses below the NBA scoring average in 71.4% of their games. When it comes to forced turnovers, the Heat are forcing 12.3 per game, which is 10th in the league. They also come into the game sitting 30th in blocked shots at 3.3 per game.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles has played well in their previous 5 road games, going 4-1 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 122 points per game while allowing 111. The team also performed well vs the spread at 3-2.
• Across their three previous home games, Miami has an ATS mark of 0-2-1. Their straight up record in these matchups was 1-2 while averaging 102 points per game.
• Spanning across their last five games as the betting underdog, the Heat have gone 1-4 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 1-4.
• Through their previous three contests as the betting favorite, the Clippers have a strong record of 2-1. Their record vs the spread in these matchups is 1-2.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

After a tough stretch, the Heat have gotten back on track with two straight wins. However, they are taking on a Clippers team that is playing as well as anyone. Los Angeles is currently just 1 game out for the top spot in the Western Conference. I’m taking the Clippers to win and cover at -4.