Knicks vs. Pacers Game 6 Pick ATS & Analysis

New York Knicks (50-32 SU, 51-41 ATS) vs. Indiana Pacers (47-35 SU, 49-42 ATS)

When: Friday, May 17th, 8:30 PM (ET)

Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, IN, Indianapolis

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: NY +6.5/Ind -6.5

Total: 215.5

Money Line: New York Knicks +203/-250

Notable Injuries

Knicks

• Bojan Bogdanovic (Out) Ankle
• Julius Randle (Out) Shoulder
• OG Anunoby (Out) Hamstring
• Mitchell Robinson (Out) Ankle

Pacers

• Bennedict Mathurin (Out) Shoulder

The Pacers are looking to force a game seven in this Eastern Conference first-round matchup with the Knicks, as they currently trail the series 3-2. Tip-off is at 8:30 PM ET from Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. ESPN is carrying the game on TV, and the over/under line is at 215.5. The Pacers are favored by 6.5 points and are -250 on the money line. A Knicks win would close out the series, and they are at +203 on the money line.

The Knicks picked up a 121-91 win over the Pacers in the most recent game of this series. New York was favored by 1.5 points and easily covered the spread. The Knicks took control of the game in the 2nd quarter, outscoring the Pacers 31-22. Going into the game, the over/under line was at 218 points, and the teams fell 6 points short of that mark.

Jalen Brunson had a big game for the Knicks, scoring 44 points and knocking down 33.3% of his threes. Alec Burks added 18 points and hit five threes. Pascal Siakam led the Pacers with 22 points, and Myles Turner added 16. The Knicks held the Pacers to just 43.1% shooting, which was below their season average.

Recent Form

Today, the Knicks are looking to win their 4th straight game as the favorite. As the underdog, they have lost their last two games. Overall, they are 41-12 as the favorite and 16-24 as the underdog.

This season, the Knicks have an average scoring differential of +3.2 points per game on the road. Their ATS record on the road is 26-19 compared to 25-22 at home.

In the Eastern Conference, the Knicks are in 2nd place with a record of 50-32. Against other Eastern Conference teams, they are 35-17 and 15-15 in non-conference games.

New York’s O/U record for the season is 42-50-1. In their last three games, the under has hit. On average, their games have finished with 221 points.

The Knicks are coming off a 121-91 win over the Pacers. They were favored by 1.5 points in that game, and the O/U line was 218.

Indiana is favored by 6.5 points today against the Knicks. As the favorite, the Pacers have won three straight games and have a record of 31-19 this season. In games they have been favored, Indiana has gone 24-26 against the spread.

In their most recent game against the Knicks, the Pacers lost by a score of 121-91. Indiana was a 1.5-point underdog going into the game. The combined scoring total of 212 was well below the O/U line of 218.

The Pacers’ O/U record for the season is 49-44, and the under has hit in their last three games. This year, their games have averaged 241.3 points per game compared to today’s O/U line of 215.5.

Indiana is currently 6th in the Eastern Conference with a record of 47-35. In the Central Division, they are 3rd. Against the Eastern Conference, the Pacers are 32-20 and 15-15 in non-conference games.

At home, the Pacers have an average scoring margin of +7.7 points per game. Their ATS record at home is 25-20, and they have won 10 straight games straight up at home.

The Historicals

Through the last 5 matchups between the teams, New York has an ATS mark of 3-2. But, looking at the scoring margin in these games, an average of just 1 points per game separates the teams. New York and Indiana averaged a combined 225 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 2-3.

Analysis

This season, the Knicks are the slowest-paced team in the league, averaging just 94.8 possessions per game. Despite their slow pace, they are 19th in scoring at 112.8 points per contest. Jalen Brunson has been playing well of late, averaging 32 points per game in his last five games. This has come on a field goal percentage of 48.4%.

Bojan Bogdanovic and OG Anunoby are both out for the Knicks. Bogdanovic is averaging 15.2 points per game and 39.8% shooting from beyond the arc. Anunoby is averaging 14.7 points and 38.2% shooting from three. Julius Randle is also out, and he is averaging 24 points and 9.2 rebounds.

So far this season, the Knicks have been one of the best defensive teams in the league, ranking 5th in points allowed per game at 108.4. They have been even better at home, giving up just 105.6 points per game, which is 3rd in the NBA.

One of the strengths of the Knicks’ defense has been their ability to limit opposing teams’ three-point shooting. On the season, they are 11th in three-point percentage allowed at 36.6%.

Over their last five games, the Knicks have struggled to keep teams off the scoreboard, giving up 112.2 points per game. During that stretch, opponents have shot 41.9% from three-point range.

Indiana comes into the game as the NBA’s top-scoring offense, at 123.3 points per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 124.9 points per contest. The Pacers are also among the league leaders in pace, averaging 101.2 possessions per game.

Tyrese Haliburton has averaged 21.6 points per game over his last five games while shooting 53.3% from the field. In these games, he hit 4 threes per game. Pascal Siakam has averaged 19 points and 6.8 rebounds in his last five. For the season, Haliburton is averaging 20.1 points and 10.9 assists.

So far this season, the Pacers have been one of the worst defensive teams in the league, ranking 27th in points allowed per game. At home, they have been slightly better, giving up 117.2 points per game, which is 25th in the NBA.

Indiana has been able to limit opponents from beyond the arc, ranking 1st in the NBA in three-point shooting percentage allowed. However, they have struggled to keep opponents off the free-throw line, ranking 30th in made free throws allowed per game.

When looking at their rebounding numbers, the Pacers are 28th in the league in total rebounds per game. They have also struggled to get steals, ranking 16th in the NBA.

Betting Trends

• New York has a 1-2 record in their last three road games. In this stretch, they averaged 104 points per game while allowing 115. The team also performed well vs the spread at 2-1.
• Through their last ten home games, Indiana has an ATS record of just 3-7. However, their overall record was 2-8 while averaging 111 points per game.
• In their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Knicks have a straight up record of 4-6 and an ATS mark of 6-4.
• Through their last three games as the favorite, the Pacers have an ATS record of 2-1 and a straight up mark of 3-0.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Even though the Knicks are dealing with numerous key injuries, they still managed to come out on top and have a chance to close out this series. However, the Pacers are now at home and favored by -6.5 points. Although I see the Pacers winning this one, I don’t see the Pacers running away with it. I like New York at +6.5 points in what will be a tighter game than the odds suggest.