Knicks vs. Pacers Game 3 Pick | Lay the Points

New York Knicks (50-32 SU, 49-40 ATS) vs. Indiana Pacers (47-35 SU, 48-40 ATS)

When: Friday, May 10th, 7:00 PM (ET)

Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, IN, Indianapolis

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: NY +7/Ind -7

Total: 222.5

Money Line: New York Knicks +229/-284

Notable Injuries

Knicks

• Bojan Bogdanovic (Out) Ankle
• Julius Randle (Out) Shoulder
• OG Anunoby (Out) Hamstring
• Mitchell Robinson (Out) Ankle
• Jalen Brunson (Questionable) Foot

Pacers

• Tyrese Haliburton (Questionable) Back
• Bennedict Mathurin (Out) Shoulder

The Knicks and Pacers will face off at 7:00 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. New York leads the series 2-0 and are the 2 seed in the Eastern Conference, while the Pacers are the 6 seed. ESPN is carrying this game on TV, and the over/under line is 222.5 points. Indiana is favored by 7 points and are -284 on the money line. The Knicks are +229 on the money line.

The Knicks picked up a 130-121 win over the Pacers in the most recent game of this series. New York was favored by 4.5 points at home and was able to cover the spread. The over/under line for the game was 218.5 points, and the teams easily surpassed that with a combined 251 points. The Knicks had a big 3rd quarter, outscoring the Pacers 36-18.

Jalen Brunson and OG Anunoby led the way for the Knicks, with 29 and 28 points respectively. Brunson shot 61.1% from the field and knocked down three threes, while Anunoby hit four threes and shot 57.1% from beyond the arc. Tyrese Haliburton had a big game for the Pacers, finishing with 34 points and knocking down seven threes.

Recent Form

The Knicks have won three straight games and are 50-32 on the season, which is good for 2nd place in the Eastern Conference. In non-conference games, they are 15-15 compared to 35-17 against other Eastern Conference teams.

New York has been the underdog in 38 of their games this season and has gone 16-22 in those games. As the underdog, they have a scoring differential of -2.3 points per game. Their ATS record as the underdog on the road is 19-19.

This season, the Knicks have gone 42-47-1 on the O/U and have seen the over hit in their last four games. On average, their games have finished with 221.2 points, and today’s O/U line is set at 222.5.

In their most recent game, the Knicks beat the Pacers by a score of 130-121. New York was favored by 4.5 points in that game, and the combined scoring total was 251. The O/U line for that game was 218.5.

Indiana is favored by 7 points today against the Knicks. As the favorite, the Pacers have a scoring margin of +6.4 points per game this season. At home, they have an average scoring margin of +7.2 PPG.

The Pacers have an O/U record of 49-41 this season, and the over has hit in their last three games. On average, their games have finished with 242.2 points per game, and today’s O/U line is 222.5.

Indiana’s last game was also against the Knicks, and they lost by a score of 130-121. The O/U line for that game was 218.5, and Indiana was a 4.5-point underdog going into the game.

Despite their loss to the Knicks, the Pacers are still in 6th place in the Eastern Conference with a record of 47-35. Against other Eastern Conference teams, they are 32-20 and 11-6 in their division.

This season, the Pacers have gone 48-40 against the spread, including a record of 24-19 at home. They have covered the spread in their last two home games.

The Historicals

When looking at how these teams have performed against the spread in recent matchups, the Pacers hold the edge at 3-2. However, the average scoring margin in these matchups has been tight, sitting at just 2 points per game. In these contests, they averaged a combined 240 points per game, leading to an over-under mark of 3-2.

Analysis

New York comes into the game as the league’s slowest-paced team, averaging 94.8 possessions per game. As a team, they have hit 46% of their shots from the field, which is 20th in the NBA. In terms of scoring, the Knicks are 19th in the league, at 112.8 points per contest.

Jalen Brunson has been carrying the Knicks offense of late, averaging 40 points per game in his last five games. This has come while hitting 51.8% of his shots from the field. He also averaged 7.8 assists in those games. Over his last five games, OG Anunoby is averaging 18.6 points and 8.4 rebounds.

On the season, the Knicks have been one of the best defensive teams in the league, ranking 5th in points allowed at 108.4 per game. They have been especially tough at home, giving up just 105.9 points per contest, which is 3rd in the NBA.

Over their last five games, New York has seen a slight dip in their defensive numbers, allowing 111.4 points per game, which is 15th in the league during that stretch. During that span, opposing teams have been able to find success from beyond the arc, shooting 38.2% from three.

On the season, opponents have been held under their season average in 76.8% of games vs. the Knicks. However, they have allowed opponents to make more threes than their season average in 45.1% of games.

Indiana comes into the game as the NBA’s top-scoring offense at 123.3 points per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 125.3 points per contest. The Pacers are also the league leaders in field goal percentage, connecting on 50% of their shots this season. In terms of three-point shooting, they are 8th in the league, with an average of 13.2 made threes per game.

Tyrese Haliburton has hit 47.9% of his shots over his last five games and 41.7% of his threes. This has led to an average of 19.4 points per game in that stretch to go along with 7.4 assists. Obi Toppin has hit 60.4% of his shots in his last five games and averaged 15.6 points and 5 rebounds.

So far this season, the Pacers have been one of the worst defensive teams in the league, ranking 27th in points allowed per game at 119.7. However, they have been able to limit the three-point shooting of their opponents, allowing just 10.8 made threes per game, which is the best mark in the NBA.

Indiana has also done a good job at defending without fouling, ranking first in the league in fewest personal fouls per game. However, they have struggled to keep opponents off the free-throw line, giving up 25.6 made free throws per game, which is 30th in the league.

Over their last five games, the Pacers have given up 115.4 points per game, which is 20th in the league during that span. During that stretch, they have struggled to defend the three-point line, allowing opponents to shoot 38.9% from beyond the arc.

Betting Trends

• Across the Knicks last ten road games, the team averaged 116 points per game while allowing 111. Their record vs. the spread in these contests was 6-4 while going 6-4 straight-up.
• Through their last ten home contests, the Pacer’s offense has averaged 115 points per game while allowing an average of 119. Indiana posted an overall record of 3-7 while going 4-6 ATS.
• Spanning across their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Knicks have gone 7-3 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 6-4.
• In their last three games as the betting favorite, the Pacers have a strong straight up record of 2-1. In addition, their ATS record was 2-1 in these scenarios.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

As we saw in their previous series vs. the Bucks, the Pacers can be tough to beat at home. And even though they trail the series 2-0, they actually had chances to win both games in New York. Although there are no moral victories at this point, Indiana has to feel like they still have a shot in this series. With the Knicks also dealing with some big-time injuries, I’m taking the Pacers at -7.