Knicks vs. Heat Game 6 Total Pick

New York Knicks (47-35 SU, 50-40-2 ATS) vs. Miami Heat (44-38 SU, 40-52-2 ATS)
When: Friday, May 12th, 7:30 PM (ET)
Where: Kaseya Center, FL, Miami
TV: ESPN

Point Spread: NY +5.5/Mia -5.5
Total: 208.5
Money Line: New York Knicks +181/-219

Notable Injuries

Knicks

• Immanuel Quickley (Doubtful) Ankle
• Jericho Sims (Out) Shoulder

Heat

• Jimmy Butler (Probable) Ankle
• Victor Oladipo (Out) Knee
• Haywood Highsmith (Probable) Knee
• Tyler Herro (Out) Hand
• Caleb Martin (Probable) Back

Recent Form

Heading into the game, New York is 47-35 overall. When taking to the road, New York has a mark of 24-17 and a win percentage of 59%. Currently, the team is 5th in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 50-40-2 vs. the spread. When looking at how the team has performed of late straight and vs. the spread, they are 2-3 in their past 5 games and 1-4 ATS. Over their past 10 games, they are 6-4 SU and 5-5 ATS.

In their previous game, the New York team emerged victorious against the Heat, winning by a margin of 3 points as predicted. Jalen Brunson shone for the Knicks, scoring 38 points on a shooting percentage of 54.5%. The Knicks not only won the game but also successfully covered the spread.

Heading into the game, Miami is 44-38 overall. When playing at home, Miami has a mark of 27-14 and a win percentage of 66%. Currently, the team is 8th in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 40-52-2 vs the spread. In Miami’s last 5 games, the Heat have a straight-up record of 3-2 while going 4-1 in those games. Going back to the last 10, they are 7-3 and 8-2 ATS.

In their most recent matchup, the Knicks defeated Miami with a score of 112-103. Jimmy Butler scored the most points for the team with 19, but it was not enough to earn the win. The Heat were 3 points ahead going into the game.

The Historicals

In the most recent matchup between the two teams, the Knicks picked up the 112-103 win over the Heat. The Knicks’ margin of victory was enough to cover the spread as 3.5 point favorite. So far this season, the Knicks have a record of 5-4 vs the Heat. Across the previous 5 meetings between the teams, the Heat have an average scoring margin of +4 points per game, leading to an ATS mark of 4-1. The over-under record in these same games is 3-2, with the teams combining for an average of 208 points per game.

Analysis

This season, the Knicks’ offense is averaging 116.0 points per game, which is 13th in the NBA. In terms of pace, New York has been playing at one of the slower tempo’s in the league, averaging just 97.7 possessions per game. New York’s 3-point shooting numbers are below the league average, as they have hit just 35.4% of their looks from deep. On average, the team gets up 35.7 3-point shots per game, placing them 16th in the NBA. Defensively, the Knicks have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 106.6 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 34.2%.

As the Knicks prepare for today’s game, Julius Randle is their leading scorer with an average of 25.1 points per game. This season, Randle has a field goal percentage of 45.9%. The team’s second-leading scorer is Jalen Brunson, who is averaging 24.0 points per game.

This season, Miami is averaging just 109.5 points per game, which places them 31st in the league. A major reason for these low numbers is the fact that they play at one of the slower paces in the NBA at just 96.2 possessions per game. When looking at the team’s 3-point shooting numbers, they profile as an average team in both percentage and attempts. For the season, the Heat offense is ranked 15th in 3-point attempts per game while connecting at a rate of 34.4%. Defensively, the Heat have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 105.57 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 34.0%.

As the Heat prepare for today’s game, Bam Adebayo is averaging 20.4 points per game on a field goal percentage of 54.0%. The team’s leading scorer is Jimmy Butler, who is averaging 22.9 points per game.

Betting Trends

• The Knicks are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 Friday games.
• New York is 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games following a ATS win.
• Miami is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
• The Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The total opened at 210 and has been bet down to 208.5. The public is hammering the over to the tune of 60% and the line keeps dropping. This is a great sign for under bettors as other sharp handicappers are projecting a low scoring game as well. I forecast this game to end in the 200-204 range. I’m betting the UNDER 208.5.