Knicks vs. Celtics: Best Bets and Predictions for NBA Tip-Off

New York Knicks (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Boston Celtics (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)

When: Tuesday, October 22nd, 7:30 PM (ET)

Where: TD Garden, MA, Boston

TV: TNT

Point Spread: NY +5.5/Bos -5.5

Total: 223.5

Money Line: New York Knicks +184/-223

Notable Injuries

Knicks

• Mitchell Robinson (Out) Ankle
• Precious Achiuwa (Out) Hamstring
• Jacob Toppin (Questionable) Ankle
• Kevin McCullar Jr. (Out) Knee

Celtics

• Kristaps Porzingis (Out) Foot

At 7:30 ET, the New York Knicks (+184) will take on the Boston Celtics (-223) in a divisional matchup. The over/under line is currently set at 223.5.

Last year, the Celtics were 64-18 and finished first in the Eastern Conference. The Knicks, on the other hand, were 50-32 and finished second in the East.

Recent Form

Ranked 19th in our preseason power rankings, the Knicks enter the season with a 64.6% chance of making the playoffs. Last season, they finished 50-32, placing 2nd in the Eastern Conference and Atlantic Division. At home, they went 27-14, with a +5.9 scoring margin, and on the road, they were 23-18, with a +3.2 margin.

New York was 42-39 ATS and had a 36-11 record when favored. They were favored in 47 games, covering the spread in 28. As underdogs, they went 14-21. Their average O/U line was 221.9 points, and they had a 36-45-1 O/U record, with their games averaging 221 points per contest.

Boston finished last season with a 64-18 record, earning the top spot in the Eastern Conference. They were dominant at home, going 37-4 with a +15.2 scoring margin, and were 27-14 on the road. Heading into this season, we have the Celtics ranked 2nd in our power rankings, with a 75.9% chance of winning their division and a 100% chance of making the playoffs.

Boston was favored in 78 games last season, finishing with a 39-35 record against the spread in those matchups. Their games averaged 229.8 points, with an average O/U line of 229.2 points. The Celtics had a 43-38-1 O/U record for the season.

The Historicals

Over the last 5 head to head meetings, the Celtics have averaged 116 points per game compared to 109 for New York. This has led to an ATS record of 3-2 for Boston. In these contests, they averaged a combined 225 points per game, leading to an over-under mark of 2-3.

Analysis

The Knicks enter the season ranked 19th in our offensive power rankings. Last year, they averaged 112.8 points per game, placing 19th in scoring. They were 30th in possessions per game, averaging 94.8, and 18th in field goal attempts per game, shooting 88.7 times per contest. They made 46.5% of their shots, ranking 21st in field goal percentage. From beyond the arc, they were 10th in three-pointers made per game, hitting 13.2, and 14th in three-point percentage at 36.9%. They also led the league in offensive rebounds, grabbing 12.7 per game.

Jalen Brunson is projected to lead the Knicks in scoring, ranking 4th in our league-wide projections. He averaged 28.7 points per game last season. Mikal Bridges, acquired from the Nets, is projected to be the Knicks’ 3rd-leading scorer and 2nd in three-pointers made. He averaged 19.6 points per game last season.

Last season, the Knicks ranked 17th in our defensive power rankings, allowing 108.2 points per game, the third-fewest in the NBA. Opponents shot 47.1% from the field against them, placing New York 14th in field-goal percentage allowed, and they held teams to 36.2% shooting from beyond the arc.

New York averaged 7.5 steals per game, ranking 17th in the league, while finishing 29th in blocked shots, with Karl-Anthony Towns projected as one of their top shot-blockers. On the boards, the Knicks were 21st in defensive rebounding, with Josh Hart and Towns expected to lead the effort. Jalen Brunson is also a strong rebounder for his position.

Boston enters the season ranked 1st in our offensive power rankings after finishing last season 2nd in points per game (120.6). They were 20th in possessions per game (97.2), but they made the most of their opportunities, ranking 7th in field goal percentage (48.7%) and 7th in free throw percentage (80.7%). The Celtics led the league in both three-pointers made (16.5) and attempted (42.5) per game, finishing 2nd in three-point percentage (38.8%).

Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are back after averaging 26.9 and 23 points per game last season, respectively. Tatum is projected to lead the team in scoring and three-pointers made, ranking 6th in points and 7th in threes in our league-wide projections. Brown is projected to be 20th in points and 37th in threes. Derrick White and Jrue Holiday are also expected to be key contributors, with White projected to be 32nd in the league in threes.

Boston heads into this season ranked 8th in our defensive power rankings after allowing just 109.2 points per game last year, the 6th-best mark in the NBA. They held opponents to 45.3% shooting, the second-lowest percentage in the league, and limited them to 34.9% from beyond the arc. Boston also led the NBA in blocked shots, averaging 6.6 per game, with Derrick White projected as one of the top shot-blocking guards in the league.

Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are among the best rebounders at their positions, and the Celtics led the NBA in defensive rebounding last season. Opponents shot just 52.0% inside the arc against Boston, the second-lowest percentage allowed in the league.

Betting Trends

• Through their last three road games, New York has an ATS record of just 1-2. However, their overall record was 0-3 while averaging 99 points per game.
• When looking at their past three home matchups, Boston has an ATS record of 1-2 while averaging 98 per game. The team went 2-1 overall in these games.
• Through their last five games as the betting underdog, the Knicks have a strong record vs the spread going 3-2. Their straight up mark in these contests is 2-3.
• In their last three games as the betting favorite, the Celtics have a straight up record of 2-1, while going 1-1-1 against the spread.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Boston was almost impossible to beat at home last year, and Celtics fans will be bringing a ton of energy, as not only do they hate the Knicks, but they are kicking off a season with hopes of repeating as champs. However, the moves the Knicks made in the off-season put them as one of the clear contenders in the East, and without Porzingis, I see this one coming down to the wire, and I like the Knicks at +5.5