Knicks vs. Bucks Betting Prediction: New York Favored Against Injury-Plagued Milwaukee

New York Knicks (45-27 SU, 34-38 ATS) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (40-32 SU, 35-35 ATS)

When: Friday, March 28th, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: Fiserv Forum, WI, Milwaukee

TV: FDSW

Point Spread: NY -1/Mil +1

Total: 220

Money Line: New York Knicks -112/-107

Notable Injuries

Knicks

• Cameron Payne (Out) Ankle
• Jalen Brunson (Out) Ankle
• Miles McBride (Out) Groin
• Ariel Hukporti (Out) Knee

Bucks

• Giannis Antetokounmpo (Questionable) Foot
• Damian Lillard (Out) Calf
• Bobby Portis (Out) Suspension
• Jericho Sims (Out) Thumb

At 8:00 ET, the Milwaukee Bucks will host the New York Knicks at Fiserv Forum. The Knicks are favored by 1 point and have a record of 45-27. The Bucks are 6th in the Eastern Conference and have lost two straight games.

This Eastern Conference matchup can be seen on FDSW. The over/under line for the game is 220 points.

Recent Form

New York’s season record dropped to 45-27 after a 126-113 loss to the Clippers on Wednesday. The Knicks were +4.5 point underdogs heading into the game and failed to cover the spread. The total score of 239 points exceeded the O/U line of 218.5 by 20.5 points.

New York started strong, leading 33-20 after the 1st quarter, but the Clippers took control with a 10-0 run, extending their lead from 68-65 to 78-65. The Knicks couldn’t recover, as L.A. outscored them 34-22 in the 2nd quarter and 40-29 in the 3rd, and New York couldn’t close the gap in the final period.

The Bucks fell to 40-32 on the season after a 127-117 road loss to the Nuggets on Wednesday. Milwaukee was +11.5 point underdogs going into the game but managed to cover the spread. The total score of 244 points exceeded the O/U line of 227 by 17 points.

Milwaukee got off to a slow start, trailing 38-27 after the 1st quarter. They bounced back in the 2nd, outscoring Denver 37-29, but the Nuggets pulled away again in the 3rd, winning the quarter 33-28. The Bucks entered the 4th quarter down 100-92 and were unable to close the gap, as Denver edged them 27-25 in the final period.

The Historicals

The ATS record across the previous five head-to-head meetings is 4-1 in favor of the Knicks. In these matchups, New York has averaged 123 points per game, while allowing 112. The over-under record in these same games is 3-2, with the teams combining for an average of 235 points per game.

Analysis

Karl-Anthony Towns led the Knicks with 34 points and 14 rebounds in their 126-113 loss to the Clippers, shooting 55% from the field and hitting four threes at a 57.1% rate. OG Anunoby added 28 points, shooting 64.7% and making 3 threes at 60%, while Mikal Bridges contributed 17 points and 9 assists.

The Knicks shot 50% from the field and made 13 threes at a 38.2% clip. Towns scored 13 points in the 1st quarter and added 10 more in the 3rd, while Anunoby put up 12 points in the 4th. Cameron Payne also chipped in 10 of his 15 points in the opening period.

The Knicks held the Clippers to 20 points in the 1st quarter but struggled defensively the rest of the way, allowing 34 points in the 2nd, 40 in the 3rd, and 32 in the 4th, leading to a 126-113 loss. Overall, New York gave up 126 points on 51% shooting.

From beyond the arc, the Knicks allowed the Clippers to hit 16 threes at a 53% clip. Los Angeles also went 20/24 from the free-throw line. Defensively, New York recorded 31 defensive rebounds, gave up 13 offensive boards, and finished with four steals and one block.

Brook Lopez led the Bucks with 26 points and 7 rebounds, shooting 70.6% from the field in their 127-117 loss to the Nuggets. Ryan Rollins added 17 points, 11 of which came in the 4th quarter, while Gary Trent Jr. contributed 16 points, hitting four threes despite shooting 33.3% overall.

Milwaukee connected on 16 threes, shooting 43.2% from beyond the arc and 51.7% overall. Lopez scored 11 points in the 1st quarter, and AJ Green added 9 of his 15 points in the 2nd.

The Bucks struggled defensively against the Nuggets, giving up 127 points on 54% shooting. Milwaukee allowed 38 points in the 1st quarter and 33 in the 3rd, while Denver scored 29 in the 2nd and 27 in the 4th.

From beyond the arc, the Nuggets hit 16 threes at a 43% clip. The Bucks sent Denver to the line 22 times, where they made 13 free throws. Milwaukee finished with 31 defensive rebounds, four steals, and six blocks.

Betting Trends

• In their last five games away from home, the Knicks have a straight-up record of 2-3 while going 2-3 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 108 points per game in these contests.
• Through their last ten home contests, the Bucks offense has averaged 112 points per game while allowing an average of 109. Milwaukee posted an overall record of 5-5 while going 6-3-1 ATS.
• Through their last three games as the betting underdog, the Bucks have a strong record vs the spread, going 3-0. Their straight-up mark in these contests is 1-2.
• As the betting favorite, the Knicks have an ATS mark of just 4-6 in their last ten games. New York posted a straight-up mark of 7-3 in these matchups.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

The Bucks are a mess right now, as injuries have once again hit them hard towards the end of a season, as Damian Lillard is out indefinitely with blood clots in his calf. In addition, it is unclear if Giannis will take the floor as he is dealing with a foot injury. Even with Jalen Brunson out, I see the Knicks coming into Milwaukee and picking up a win.