Kings vs. Thunder Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Can Sacramento Pull Off the Upset?

Oklahoma City Thunder (12-4 SU, 9-7 ATS) vs. Sacramento Kings (8-9 SU, 7-10 ATS)

When: Monday, November 25th, 10:00 PM (ET)

Where: Golden 1 Center, CA, Sacramento

TV: NBCS

Point Spread: OKC -4.5/Sac +4.5

Total: 223.5

Money Line: Oklahoma City Thunder -183/+156

Notable Injuries

Thunder

• Isaiah Joe (Questionable) Calf
• Chet Holmgren (Out) Hip
• Jaylin Williams (Out) Hamstring
• Nikola Topic (Out) Knee
• Alex Ducas (Questionable) Achilles

Kings

• Malik Monk (Questionable) Ankle
• Mason Jones (Out) Hamstring
• Devin Carter (Out) Shoulder

At 10:00 ET, the Sacramento Kings (8-9) will look to snap a three-game losing streak when they host the Oklahoma City Thunder (12-4) at the Golden 1 Center. The Thunder are currently favored by 4.5 points (-183), and the over/under line is set at 223.5.

This Western Conference matchup will be televised on NBCS.

Recent Form

With a 109-99 win over the Trail Blazers on Wednesday, the Thunder improved to 12-4 this season. Oklahoma City was favored by 12.5 points but didn’t cover, and the total score of 208 points fell short of the 222-point over/under line.

Portland went on a 10-0 run early, but the Thunder responded by outscoring them 26-21 in the 2nd quarter. After a tight 3rd quarter, with the Thunder leading 70-69, they pulled away by scoring 39 points in the 4th quarter while holding the Blazers to 30.

The Kings fell to 8-9 on the season after a 108-103 home loss to the Nets on Sunday. Sacramento, who were -10.5 point favorites, not only lost but also failed to cover the spread. The game’s total points of 211 were well below the 223.5 O/U line.

Sacramento got off to a slow start, trailing 37-28 after the 1st quarter. They battled back, outscoring Brooklyn 31-23 in the 3rd quarter to tie the game at 88 heading into the 4th. However, the Kings managed just 15 points in the final period, while the Nets scored 20 to seal the win.

The Historicals

The level of competition has been tight in the five most recent games between Thunder and Kings with just 1 points per game separating the teams. Sacramento has the ATS edge in this span at 3-2. In these contests, they averaged a combined 229 points per game, leading to an over-under mark of 3-2.

Analysis

Jalen Williams hit five threes at a 55.6% clip and finished with 30 points, eight assists, and seven rebounds in the Thunder’s win over the Trail Blazers. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander added 28 points despite shooting 36.8%, and Alex Caruso contributed 17 points on 72.7% shooting.

As a team, the Thunder made just nine threes, shooting 29% from beyond the arc and 44% overall. Williams scored 10 points in the 3rd quarter and added 11 more in the 4th, while Gilgeous-Alexander scored 13 points in the final period.

The Thunder put together a strong defensive performance on Wednesday, holding the Trail Blazers to 99 points. Oklahoma City gave up 23 points in the 1st quarter and 21 in the 2nd, before allowing 25 in the 3rd and 30 in the 4th. Overall, they limited Portland to 40% shooting from the field.

From beyond the arc, the Thunder allowed 15 made threes on 39% shooting. The Trail Blazers also went 20/28 from the free-throw line. Oklahoma City finished with 31 defensive rebounds while giving up 16 offensive boards. They also recorded 14 steals and eight blocked shots.

De’Aaron Fox led the Kings with 31 points and five assists in their loss to the Nets, shooting 62.5% from the field and hitting three threes at a 75% clip. Fox scored 14 points in the 1st quarter and added ten more in the 2nd. Keegan Murray contributed 21 points and eight rebounds, while DeMar DeRozan added 18 points, with six coming in the 4th quarter.

The Kings shot 48.1% from the field, but made just nine threes, shooting 36% from beyond the arc. Fox’s three made threes were a team-high.

The Kings struggled defensively in the 1st quarter, giving up 37 points, but they tightened up as the game went on, allowing just 23 points in the 3rd and 20 in the 4th. Despite the improved effort, they couldn’t overcome the Nets, who shot 48% from the field.

From beyond the arc, the Nets hit 19 threes at a 48% clip. The Kings sent the Nets to the line 25 times, where they made 17 free throws. Sacramento finished with 33 defensive rebounds, allowing six offensive boards, and recorded six steals and six blocks.

Betting Trends

• Although Oklahoma City has a straight-up record of 1-2 in their last three road games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 1-2. The team averaged 110 points per game in these games.
• In their last five games at home, the Kings have a straight-up record of 2-3 while going 2-3 vs. the spread. The team averaged 110 points per game in this stretch.
• In their last five games as the betting underdog, the Kings have a straight-up record of 1-4 and an ATS mark of 1-4.
• In their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Thunder have a straight up record of 6-4 and an ATS mark of 4-6.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Kings have really struggled of late but have a chance to get things right at home with a chance to take down a good Thunder squad. One thing working o their favor is how banged up the Thunder are, and getting them at +4.5 at home is good value. Look for the Kings to make this one interesting, and I like them to cover the spread as home dogs.