Kings vs. Magic Predictions: Joe’s ATS Pick & Injury Analysis

Sacramento Kings (36-37 SU, 31-41 ATS) vs. Orlando Magic (35-39 SU, 36-38 ATS)

When: Saturday, March 29th, 5:00 PM (ET)

Where: Kia Center, FL, Orlando

TV: NBCS

Point Spread: Sac -1/Orl +1 (Bet smarter! Get discounted betting odds!)

Total: 218.5

Money Line: Sacramento Kings -113/-106

Notable Injuries

Kings

• Jake LaRavia (Out) Thumb

Magic

• Moritz Wagner (Out) Knee
• Cole Anthony (Doubtful) Toe
• Jalen Suggs (Out) Knee

At 5:00 ET, the Sacramento Kings (-113) will travel to take on the Orlando Magic (-106) in a non-conference matchup. The Kings are currently favored by 1 point.

This game will be played at the Kia Center in Orlando and can be seen on NBCS. The over/under line for the game is 218.5 points.

Recent Form

The Kings moved to 36-37 on the season after a 128-107 win over the Trail Blazers on Thursday. Sacramento, favored by 5.5 points, covered the spread with the 21-point victory. The game’s total of 235 points went over the pre-game line of 227.5.

At home, Sacramento took control early, leading 36-27 after the 1st quarter and 68-50 at halftime. The teams played evenly in the 3rd quarter, each scoring 32 points, but the Kings maintained their lead, heading into the 4th quarter up 100-82 and outscoring Portland 28-25 in the final period.

The Magic dropped to 35-39 on the season after a 101-92 loss to the Mavericks on Thursday. Orlando was favored by 6.5 points at home but fell short of expectations, losing by nine. The game’s total of 193 points was well below the O/U line of 216.5.

Orlando appeared to take control after a strong 2nd quarter, outscoring Dallas 33-24. However, a 17-0 run by the Mavericks turned the game, as they extended their lead from 68-59 to 85-59. The Magic couldn’t recover, getting outscored 34-20 in the 3rd quarter and 24-22 in the 4th.

The Historicals

When looking at how these teams have performed vs the spread in recent matchups, the Magic have an ATS mark of 3-2. Yet, the Kings have averaged more points per game in these contests, at 124 compared to Orlando at 124. In these contests, they averaged a combined 245 points per game, leading to an over-under mark of 4-1.

Analysis

The Kings shot 64.9% from the field in their 128-107 win over the Trail Blazers, with Zach LaVine leading the way at 72.2% shooting, finishing with 29 points. Domantas Sabonis added 22 points on 81.8% shooting, and DeMar DeRozan contributed 21 points and 10 assists.

Sacramento struggled from beyond the arc, hitting just 10 threes at a 37% clip. LaVine scored 13 points in the 2nd quarter, while Sabonis added 14 in the 3rd. Keegan Murray also chipped in 17 points, with nine coming in the 1st quarter.

The Kings held the Trail Blazers to 107 points on Thursday, limiting them to 27 points in the 1st quarter and just 23 in the 2nd. They gave up 32 points in the 3rd but tightened up in the 4th, allowing only 25 points. Overall, Sacramento’s defense held Portland to 39% shooting from the field.

From three-point range, the Kings allowed 16 made threes on 32% shooting. The Trail Blazers also went to the line 26 times, making 21 free throws. Sacramento finished with 37 defensive rebounds, gave up 15 offensive boards, and recorded eight steals and three blocks.

In their 101-92 loss to the Mavericks, the Magic struggled offensively, shooting 42.5% from the field and hitting just five threes at a 16.7% clip. Paolo Banchero led the way with 35 points and 10 rebounds, shooting 61.9% from the floor.

Banchero scored 17 of his points in the 2nd quarter and added 11 more in the 3rd. Franz Wagner contributed 20 points, with 10 coming in the 4th quarter, while Anthony Black added 14 points.

Defensively, the Magic held the Mavericks to 101 points but couldn’t capitalize on their effort. They gave up 34 points in the 3rd quarter, their worst defensive stretch while allowing 24 points in both the 2nd and 4th quarters.

Orlando allowed Dallas to shoot 47% from the field, including 50% from three-point range, where the Mavericks hit 11 threes. The Magic also sent Dallas to the line 22 times, with the Mavericks making 16 free throws. The Magic recorded five steals and five blocks in the game.

Betting Trends

• In their last five road games, Sacramento has averaged 110 points per game while allowing 115. The team’s record in this stretch was 1-4 while going 3-2.
• When looking at their past ten home matchups, Orlando has an ATS record of 8-2 while averaging 109 per game. The team went 7-3 overall in these games.
• Spanning across their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Magic have gone 5-5 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 3-7.
• As the betting favorite, the Kings have an ATS mark of just 7-3 in their last ten games. Sacramento posted a straight-up mark of 7-3 in these matchups.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

This is the tightest spread across today’s NBA slate, and I see the Kings coming into Orlando and picking up the win vs a banged up Magic squad. The best value is taking the Kings at -1.