Pacers vs. Kings: High-Scoring Prediction & Spread Bet

Sacramento Kings (36-38 SU, 31-42 ATS) vs. Indiana Pacers (43-31 SU, 34-38 ATS)

When: Monday, March 31st, 7:00 PM (ET)

Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, IN, Indianapolis

TV: NBCS

Point Spread: Sac +5.5/Ind -5.5

Total: 234.5

Money Line: Sacramento Kings +183/-219

Notable Injuries

Kings

• Jake LaRavia (Out) Thumb
• Devin Carter (Out) Shoulder

Pacers

• Isaiah Jackson (Out) Achilles
• Bennedict Mathurin (Out) Calf

At 7:00 ET, the Pacers (-219) will host the Kings (+183) in a non-conference matchup. Indiana is favored by 5.5, and the over/under is 234.5.

Both teams are in the playoff picture, with the Pacers (43-31) sitting 4th in the East and the Kings (36-38) 10th in the West. NBCS has the TV coverage for this game at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.

Recent Form

The Kings fell to 36-38 on the season after a 121-91 road loss to the Magic on Saturday. Sacramento, who entered the game as +1.5 point underdogs, failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game ended at 212, just under the pre-game line of 213.

Sacramento’s struggles began early, as they were outscored 38-21 in the 1st quarter. Although they edged the Magic 25-23 in the 2nd quarter, a 37-20 3rd quarter put them in a 98-66 hole heading into the 4th. They matched Orlando 25-23 in the final period, but the damage was already done.

After a 132-111 loss to the Thunder on Saturday, the Pacers are now 43-31 for the season. Indiana, who were +8.5 point underdogs, failed to cover the spread, and the game’s total points of 243 exceeded the O/U line of 234.

Oklahoma City’s 11-0 run early on shifted the momentum, and Indiana couldn’t recover. The Thunder outscored the Pacers 32-22 in the 2nd quarter and 41-31 in the 3rd, putting the game out of reach by the start of the 4th quarter.

The Historicals

When looking at how these teams have performed against the spread in recent matchups, the Pacers hold the edge at 3-2. However, the average scoring margin in these matchups has been tight, sitting at just 0 points per game. Over the course of these games, they averaged 236 points per game, leading a 3-2 over-under record.

Analysis

In their 121-91 loss to the Magic, the Kings struggled offensively, shooting just 42% from the field and making only seven three-pointers at a 25% clip. DeMar DeRozan led the way with 21 points, hitting 66.7% of his threes, while Domantas Sabonis added 14 points and 13 rebounds despite shooting 33.3%.

DeRozan scored 12 of his points in the 2nd quarter, while Sabonis contributed 11 of his 14 in the opening period. Zach LaVine was the only other Kings player to reach double figures, finishing with 10 points on 37.5% shooting.

The Kings struggled defensively in their 121-91 loss to the Magic, giving up 38 points in the 1st quarter and 37 in the 3rd. They tightened up in the 2nd and 4th quarters, allowing just 23 points in each.

Overall, Sacramento allowed Orlando to shoot 49% from the field, including 46% from three-point range, where the Magic hit 18 threes. The Kings also sent the Magic to the line 24 times, where they made 15 free throws. Sacramento finished with 32 defensive rebounds, gave up 13 offensive boards, and recorded six steals and six blocks.

In their 132-111 loss to the Thunder, the Pacers shot 44.8% from the field and made 14 threes at a 33.3% clip. Tyrese Haliburton led the way with 18 points, hitting four threes at 44.4%, and added three assists and four rebounds.

Andrew Nembhard contributed 16 points and seven assists, while Obi Toppin chipped in 12 points. Haliburton scored 9 points in the 1st quarter, and Myles Turner added 8 of his 11 points in the 3rd.

The Pacers struggled defensively against the Thunder, giving up 132 points on 51% shooting. Indiana allowed 29 points in the 1st quarter, 32 in the 2nd, and a big 41-point 3rd quarter before allowing 30 in the 4th.

From beyond the arc, the Thunder hit 17 threes at a 47% clip. Indiana sent Oklahoma City to the line 23 times, where they made 19 free throws. The Pacers finished with 35 defensive rebounds, allowing eight offensive boards, and added six steals and six blocks.

Betting Trends

• In their last three games away from home, the Kings have a straight-up record of 0-3 while going 0-3 vs. the spread. The team averaged 100 points per game in this stretch.
• When looking at their past ten home matchups, Indiana has an ATS record of 2-8 while averaging 122 per game. The team went 4-6 overall in these games.
• Spanning across their last five games as the betting underdog, the Kings have gone 1-4 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 1-4.
• In their last five games as the betting favorite, the Pacers have a straight-up record of 5-0 while going 1-4 against the spread.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

The Kings’ West Coast trip got off to a rough start, getting blown out by the Magic. While the Pacers showed, they couldn’t hang with the Thunder on Saturday night. However, this Pacers team showed how well their offense can play vs bad defensive teams, putting up 162 points vs the Wizards last Thursday. Look for the Pacers to win and cover this number tonight.