Kings at Mavericks ATS Pick | March 3rd

Sacramento Kings (31-28 SU, 24-34 ATS) vs. Dallas Mavericks (32-29 SU, 31-28 ATS)

When: Monday, March 3rd, 8:30 PM (ET)

Where: American Airlines Center, TX, Dallas

TV: NBCS

Point Spread: Sac +1.5/Dal -1.5

Total: 231.5

Money Line: Sacramento Kings +100/-120

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Notable Injuries

Kings

• Domantas Sabonis (Out) Hamstring

Mavericks

• Anthony Davis (Out) Adductor
• P.J. Washington (Out) Ankle
• Daniel Gafford (Out) Knee
• Caleb Martin (Out) Hip
• Dereck Lively II (Out) Ankle

At 8:30 ET, the Dallas Mavericks (-120) will host the Sacramento Kings (+100) in a Western Conference matchup. The Mavericks are favored by 1.5 points, and the over/under line is set at 231.5.

Both teams are currently in the playoff hunt, with the Kings (31-28) sitting 9th in the West and the Mavericks (32-29) in 10th. Sacramento has won three straight games, while Dallas is 3rd in the Southwest Division.

Recent Form

The Kings improved to 31-28 with a 113-103 win over the Rockets on Saturday. Sacramento, who entered the game as +4 point underdogs, not only won but also covered the spread. The total score of 216 points fell short of the 230.5 O/U line.

A key moment in the game was a 15-0 run by the Kings, which took the score from 6-3 to 18-6. After a high-scoring 2nd quarter (38-38), Sacramento edged out Houston in the 3rd (26-23) and 4th (24-21) quarters to seal the win.

The Mavericks fell to 32-29 on the season after a 132-117 home loss to the Bucks on Saturday. Dallas entered the game as +3 point underdogs but couldn’t cover the spread, losing by 15 points. The total points for the game reached 249, surpassing the pre-game O/U line of 229 by 20 points.

Dallas led 36-31 after the 1st quarter, but a 10-0 run by the Bucks turned the game, as Milwaukee outscored the Mavericks 40-27 in the 2nd quarter and 30-16 in the 3rd. Dallas made a push in the 4th, outscoring the Bucks 38-31, but it was too late as they entered the final quarter down 101-79.

The Historicals

Over the last five head-to-head meetings, the Mavericks have averaged 116 points per game compared to 111 for Sacramento. This has led to an ATS record of 3-2 for Dallas. A combined average of 227 points per game was achieved in these matchups, leading to an over-under mark of 1-4.

Analysis

In Saturday’s win over the Rockets, the Kings shot 50.6% from the field but struggled from beyond the arc, hitting just nine threes at a 32.1% clip. DeMar DeRozan led the way with 21 points, including 9 in the 4th quarter, while Zach LaVine added 20 points.

Malik Monk contributed 16 points, with five coming in the final period, and Jonas Valančiūnas added 15, scoring 9 in the 2nd quarter. Keegan Murray finished with 13 points, and Keon Ellis chipped in 12, 6 of which came in the 4th quarter.

Despite a rough 2nd quarter where the Kings allowed 38 points, they tightened up defensively in the 2nd half, giving up just 44 points combined in the 3rd and 4th quarters to secure a 113-103 win over the Rockets. Sacramento held Houston to 43% shooting from the field.

From beyond the arc, the Kings gave up 13 threes at a 37% clip. They also sent the Rockets to the line 23 times, where they converted 16 free throws. Sacramento finished with 13 steals and five blocks.

Kyrie Irving led the Mavericks with 31 points in their 132-117 loss to the Bucks, shooting 39.1% from the field and 22.2% from three, hitting two threes. As a team, Dallas made 11 threes, shooting 27.5% from beyond the arc, with an overall field goal percentage of 47.3%.

Moses Brown contributed 18 points on 88.9% shooting, and Klay Thompson added 16 points, hitting four threes at 44.4%. Irving scored 11 points in the 4th quarter, while Thompson and Jaden Hardy each added 8 points in the final period.

Defensively, the Mavericks struggled on Saturday, giving up 132 points to the Bucks. Their toughest stretch came in the 2nd quarter, where they allowed 40 points. Milwaukee shot 50% from the field, scoring 31 points in both the 1st and 4th quarters.

From beyond the arc, Dallas held the Bucks to 13 threes on 33% shooting. However, they sent Milwaukee to the free-throw line 35 times, where the Bucks converted 31. The Mavericks gave up 14 offensive rebounds while recording seven steals and one block.

Betting Trends

• In their last three road games, Sacramento has averaged 121 points per game while allowing 114. The team’s record in this stretch was 2-1 while going 2-1 vs. the spread.
• Across their last three home contests, Dallas has a 2-1 record vs the spread. Their overall mark in these games was 1-2 while averaging 109 points per game.
• As the betting underdog, the Kings have an ATS record of 2-1 in their last three games. In these matchups, their straight up record was 2-1.
• Going back to their previous ten games as the favorite, Dallas has an ATS mark of 3-6-1 while going 6-4 straight up.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Tonight’s Kings vs Mavericks matchup features two teams jockeying for the 9 and 10 seeds in the Western Conference play-in tournament. The Kings are hot right now, winning 3-straight, but each team is 6-4 over their last 10. Right now, Dallas is favored by -1.5, as the Kings will be without Damantas Sabonis. Even though Dallas is also banged up, I see them taking care of business at home tonight. I like the Mavericks to win and cover.