Kings-Bucks Betting Preview: ATS Pick and Insight

Sacramento Kings (20-19 SU, 16-22 ATS) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (20-17 SU, 15-21 ATS)

When: Tuesday, January 14th, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: Fiserv Forum, WI, Milwaukee

TV: NBCS

Point Spread: Sac +2.5/Mil -2.5

Total: 228.5

Money Line: Sacramento Kings +112/-133

Notable Injuries

Kings

• Malik Monk (Questionable) Groin

Bucks

• Giannis Antetokounmpo (Probable) Knee
• Khris Middleton (Out) Injury Management
• Gary Trent Jr. (Questionable) Hip
• Ryan Rollins (Questionable) Illness

At 8:00 ET, the Kings will travel to Milwaukee to take on the Bucks at Fiserv Forum. Sacramento is currently on a seven-game win streak and is 20-19 on the season. They are 9th in the Western Conference and 3rd in the Pacific Division.

On the other side, the Bucks are 20-17 and are 6th in the Eastern Conference and 3rd in the Central Division. Milwaukee is favored by 2.5 points, and the over/under line is set at 228.5. NBCS will have coverage of this non-conference matchup.

Recent Form

The Kings improved to 20-19 on the season with a 124-119 road win over the Bulls on Sunday. Sacramento entered the game as a 5-point favorite, and the final score resulted in a push. The combined score of 243 points narrowly exceeded the pre-game total of 238.

Sacramento edged out Chicago by winning the 3rd quarter 36-32 and holding a 97-95 lead going into the 4th. They closed out the game by outscoring the Bulls 27-24 in the final quarter.

The Bucks fell to 20-17 on the season after a 140-106 road loss to the Knicks on Sunday. Milwaukee entered the game as +5 point underdogs but failed to cover the spread, losing by 34 points. The total score of 246 points exceeded the pre-game O/U line of 228 by 18 points.

Milwaukee trailed 36-33 after the 1st quarter, but the Knicks went on a 12-0 run, stretching the score from 75-62 to 87-62. The Bucks were down 108-89 heading into the 4th quarter, where they were outscored 32-17.

The Historicals

Spanning across the last five head-to-head matchups, the Kings and Bucks have been competitive, with an average margin of victory sitting at just 0 points per game. This has resulted in a 3-2 ATS record for Milwaukee. Over the course of these games, they averaged 252 points per game, leading a 4-1 over-under record.

Analysis

De’Aaron Fox led the Kings with 26 points and nine rebounds in their 124-119 win over the Bulls, shooting 56.2% from the field and hitting four threes at a 50% clip. Domantas Sabonis added 22 points and 15 rebounds, connecting on 80% of his shots, while DeMar DeRozan contributed 21 points.

The Kings shot 49.5% from the field, making 13 threes at a 33.3% rate. Fox and DeRozan each scored 9 points in the 4th quarter, while Malik Monk added 18 points, including 7 in the opening period.

Despite giving up 119 points, the Kings’ defense tightened up in the 4th quarter, allowing just 24 points to help secure the win over the Bulls. Sacramento’s defense struggled to contain Chicago from beyond the arc, where the Bulls hit 18 threes at a 48% clip.

The Kings sent the Bulls to the line 20 times, where they made 15 free throws. Sacramento controlled the boards, giving up eight offensive rebounds while collecting 42 defensive boards. They also added four steals and three blocks.

In their 140-106 loss to the Knicks, the Bucks struggled offensively, shooting just 45.7% from the field. Their three-point shooting was particularly poor, hitting only 10 threes at a 29.4% rate.

Giannis Antetokounmpo led the Bucks with 24 points and 13 rebounds, scoring 13 of his points in the 1st quarter. Damian Lillard added 22 points, while Khris Middleton contributed 16, making two threes at 50% efficiency.

The Bucks struggled defensively against the Knicks, giving up 140 points while allowing New York to shoot 58% from the field. Milwaukee allowed 36 points in the 1st quarter and 39 in the 2nd, with the Knicks scoring 33 and 32 points in the 3rd and 4th quarters, respectively.

From beyond the arc, the Bucks allowed the Knicks to hit 18 threes on 43% shooting. Milwaukee also sent New York to the line 24 times, where they made 20 free throws. Defensively, the Bucks recorded six steals and three blocks.

Betting Trends

• Across their last three road contests, Sacramento has been good against the spread, posting a mark of 2-0-1. Their overall mark in these games was 3-0, while averaging 122 points per game.
• Through their last ten home contests, the Bucks offense has averaged 113 points per game while allowing an average of 112. Milwaukee posted an overall record of 6-4 while going 5-5 ATS.
• As the betting underdog, the Kings have an ATS mark of just 4-6 in their last ten games. Sacramento posted a straight-up mark of 4-6 in these matchups.
• In their last five games as the betting favorite, the Bucks have a straight-up record of 3-2 while going 2-3 against the spread.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Heading into Tuesday night’s non-conference matchup, the Bucks are favored by -2.5 over the Kings. Throughout the season, Milwaukee has shown they can beat up lesser teams and really struggle against good competition. Although the Kings aren’t one of the league’s top teams, they are on a roll right now, having not lost since December 28th. This includes rod wins over Golden State and Boston. I like Sacramento to win this one outright tonight.