Jazz vs. Blazers Odds, Analysis, Spread Pick 11/19/22

Utah Jazz (11-6 SU, 10-5-2 ATS) vs. Portland Trail Blazers (10-5 SU, 11-4-0 ATS)
When: Saturday, November 19th, 10:00 PM (ET)
Where: Moda Center, OR, Portland
TV: NBA

Point Spread: UTA +4/ POR -4
Total: 223.5
Money Line: Utah Jazz +145/ -176

Notable Injuries

Jazz

• Rudy Gay (Out) Finger

Trail Blazers

• Gary Payton II (Out) Abdomen
• Nassir Little (Questionable) Calf
• Keon Johnson (Questionable) Hip

Recent Form

So far, the Jazz have put together an overall record of 11-6 while going 10-5-2 vs. the spread. Across the team’s previous three games, they have gone 1-2 straight-up and 0-2-1 vs. the spread.

Going into their last game, the Jazz were 1-point favorites to beat the Suns. However, the 134-133 win resulted in an ATS push for each side. The Jazz made things more interesting than they hoped, as they gave back some of their 8-point halftime lead by being outscored in the 2nd half. In the win, Lauri Markkanen led the team in scoring with 38 points on a field goal percentage of 83.3%.

So far, the Trail Blazers have put together an overall record of 10-5 while going 11-4-0 vs. the spread. Looking back on Trail Blazers’ previous three games, they have a record of 1-2 while averaging 112 points per game. Over this stretch, their ATS mark is 1-2.

In their previous game, the Trail Blazers were favored to win vs. the Nets. However, their 109-107 loss gave them both a straight-up and ATS defeat. Portland went on to lose the game despite leading by 4 heading into halftime. In the loss, Damian Lillard led the team in scoring with 25 points on a field goal percentage of 33.3%.

The Historicals

Looking back to last season, the Jazz and Trail Blazers met up for games, with Utah winning the series 4-0. A large part of the team’s overall success vs. Portland was their ability to win on the road, as they were above .500 away from home in the series. In last year’s head-to-head meetings, the Jazz averaged 120.75 points per game vs. Portland, which was an increase over their season-long average. However, the Trail Blazers actually averaged fewer points per game than their season-long mark. Across their head-to-head matchups with Utah, the team averaged 94.25 points per game. In terms of betting, Utah has an ATS record of 4-1 in the previous five matchups vs. Portland. This mark has come on an average scoring margin of +20 points per game in favor of the Jazz. In these matchups, the teams have put together an over-under mark of 1-4. Combined, they averaged 212 points in these games.

Analysis

Coming into today’s action, Utah averages 117.6 points per contest. This figure places them 3rd in the league. The Jazz come into the game as one of the league’s better 3-point shooting teams, connecting at a rate of 14.8 made 3’s per game. If the Utah offense is going to continue to produce at a high level, they will need to do a better job taking care of the ball, as they are turning the ball over at an above-average rate.

Against the Trail Blazers, the Jazz will look to continue their strong defensive play. For the year, they are the 10th-ranked unit at 107.57 points per game.

On offense, Lauri Markkanen leads the Jazz in scoring at 22.24 points per game, placing him 29th in the NBA. Overall, Markkanen has hit 54.4% of his shots while accounting for 16.8% of the team’s looks from the field. In today’s game, he will be working against a defensive unit that is 6th in points allowed to power-fowards. At 18.06 points per game, Jordan Clarkson is the 2nd leading scorer for the Jazz. For the season, he is 139th in the league in player efficiency rating while posting an overall field goal percentage of 42.6%.

For the season, the Trail Blazers’ offensive unit is ranked just 25th in scoring at 109.7 points per contest. Coming into today’s game, the Trail Blazers will be looking to improve their 3-point shooting numbers, as they are averaging just 12.1 made 3’s per game. If Portland continues to struggle with their outside shot, they may look to start playing with more pace, as they are currently 28th in the league in possessions per game.

On defense, the Trail Blazers will look for some improved play, as they are currently the 27th-ranked unit in points allowed per game.

Shooting Guard Anfernee Simons currently leads the Trail Blazers at 22.46 points per game. For the season, he is 54th in the NBA in usage rate and has taken 22.1% of the team’s field goal attempts. In addition to his scoring, Simons is averaging 2.85 boards and 3.77 assists per contest. In today’s game, he is facing off against the NBA’s 5th-ranked defense at defending shooting guards. Jerami Grant enters the game, sitting second on the team in scoring. Through 14 games, he is averaging 20.14 and is 127th in the league in player efficiency rating.

Betting Trends

Jazz are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Jazz are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.

Trail Blazers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games playing on one day’s rest.
Trail Blazers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

With three losses out of their last four games, the Utah Jazz are coming back to earth off a red-hot start to the 2022 NBA season. Portland continues to be competitive regardless of who they put on the floor. I think the Blazers win by double digits here.