Indiana Pacers vs. New York Knicks Game 1 Pick & Analysis

Indiana Pacers (47-35 SU, 47-39 ATS) vs. New York Knicks (50-32 SU, 48-39 ATS)

When: Monday, May 6th, 7:30 PM (ET)

Where: Madison Square Garden, NY, New York

TV: TNT

Point Spread: Ind +6/NY -6

Total: 217.5

Money Line: Indiana Pacers +191/-234

Notable Injuries

Pacers

• Tyrese Haliburton (Questionable) Back
• Bennedict Mathurin (Out) Shoulder

Knicks

• Bojan Bogdanovic (Out) Ankle
• Julius Randle (Out) Shoulder

The Knicks and Pacers are set to kick off their second-round playoff series at 7:30 PM ET on Monday from Madison Square Garden. New York is the 2-seed in the East and is favored by 6 points at home. The over/under line is sitting at 217.5 points, and the Knicks are -234 on the money line compared to the Pacers at +191. TNT is carrying this game on TV.

The Pacers are coming off a 120-98 win over the Bucks, and they closed out the series in six games. Indiana won the series 4-2 and picked up the win at home. In this game, the over/under line was 216.5 points, and the teams combined for 218 points.

Indiana’s offense was led by Obi Toppin, who finished with 21 points and eight rebounds. Toppin hit three threes, and he shot 53.3% from the field. T.J. McConnell also had a big game for the Pacers, finishing with 20 points and nine assists. As a team, Indiana hit 54.1% of their shots from the field.

Jalen Brunson had a huge game for the Knicks, putting up 41 points and 12 assists. His 41 points helped the Knicks secure a 118-115 win over the 76ers. With the win, the Knicks closed out the series, taking the series 4-2.

As a team, the Knicks hit 14 threes on 45.2% shooting from beyond the arc. Donte DiVincenzo also had a solid game for the Knicks, adding 23 points and seven assists. OG Anunoby also added 19 points and nine rebounds for the Knicks.

Recent Form

On the road this season, the Pacers have gone 22-22 straight-up and 23-20 against the spread. Currently, they are 16th in the Eastern Conference with a record of 47-35.

Indiana’s ATS record for the season is 47-39, and they are 24-19 ATS at home compared to 23-20 on the road. The team’s O/U record for the season is 47-41.

As the underdog, Indiana has gone 22-18 this season and 24-14 ATS. On average, they have been the underdog in 40 of their games and have a scoring differential of -1 point per game.

In their last game, the Pacers defeated the Bucks by a score of 120-98. Indiana easily covered the spread as 5.5-point favorites, and the O/U line for the game was 216.5.

In their games this season, the Pacers have averaged 242.1 points per game, which is higher than today’s O/U line of 217.5. Overall, the team’s O/U record for the season is 47-41.

In the Eastern Conference, the Knicks have gone 35-17 against other teams in the East and 15-15 against the West. Overall, they are 50-32, which is good for 2nd place in the East.

This season, the Knicks have been favored in 50 of their 82 games and have a record of 38-12 in those games. As the favorite, they have gone 29-20 against the spread, with an average scoring margin of +9.3 points per game.

New York’s O/U record for the season is 40-47-1, and they have gone over the line in their last two games. On average, their games have finished with 220.7 points, and today’s O/U line is set at 217.5.

In their most recent game, the Knicks defeated the 76ers by a score of 118-115. They were 3-point underdogs going into the game, giving them an ATS win. The O/U line for the game was 202.5.

The Knicks have an ATS record of 48-39 this season, including a mark of 23-21 at home. In their last two home games, they have failed to cover the spread. On the road, their ATS record is 25-18.

The Historicals

Over the last 5 head to head meetings, the Pacers have averaged 128 points per game compared to 124 for New York. This has led to an ATS record of 3-2 for Indiana. In these contests, they averaged a combined 252 points per game, leading to an over-under mark of 3-2.

Analysis

Indiana comes into the game as the NBA’s top-scoring team, at 123.3 points per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 119.9 points per contest. The Pacers are also among the league leaders in pace, averaging 101.2 possessions per game.

Over their last five games, Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner have each averaged 19.6 points per game. Turner has averaged 3 made threes per game in this stretch, connecting on 46.9% of his looks from downtown. Tyrese Haliburton is averaging 17.4 points and 9.6 assists in his last five games and 20.1 points and 10.9 assists for the year.

When it comes to scoring, the Pacers have struggled this season, allowing 119.6 points per game, which is 27th in the NBA. On the road, they have been even worse, giving up 121.0 points per contest.

So far this season, opponents have scored more than their season average in 70.7% of games vs. Indiana. However, when it comes to three-point shooting, the Pacers have done a great job at contesting shots, allowing opponents to make just 10.7 threes per game, which is 1st in the league.

On the glass, Indiana ranks 28th in rebounds per game and 28th in defensive rebounds per contest. However, they have been solid at blocking shots, ranking 8th in the NBA.

New York is currently last in the league in pace, averaging 94.8 possessions per game. For the season, they are 19th in scoring at 112.8 points per game. Looking at their home games, the Knicks are 25th in the league at 110.9 points per contest. The team’s three-point shooting percentage of 36% is 12th in the NBA.

Jalen Brunson has been carrying the Mavericks offense of late, averaging 38.2 points per game over his last five. This has come while hitting 45% of his shots from the field. In addition to his scoring, he has also averaged 9.4 assists in his last five games. For the season, he is averaging 28.7 points and 6.7 assists. Josh Hart and OG Anunoby have also been playing well of late, with both averaging 15.8 points in their last stretch of games.

When it comes to scoring defense, the Knicks have been one of the best units in the league this season, ranking 4th in points allowed per game at 108.2. At home, they have been even stingier, giving up just 105.3 points per contest, which is 3rd in the NBA.

One area where opponents have had success against the Knicks is from three-point range, as they have made more threes than their season average in 43.9% of games vs. New York. Overall, the Knicks are 11th in three-point shooting percentage allowed at 36.3%.

Over their last five games, the Knicks have been solid defensively, holding opponents to 44.6% shooting from the field and 38.6% from three-point range. During this stretch, they have also done a good job of defending the paint, allowing just 48.9% shooting on two-point attempts.

Betting Trends

• Across the Pacers last five road games, the team averaged 114 points per game while allowing 116. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 2-3, while going 2-3 straight-up.
• Across their last three home contests, New York has been good against the spread posting a mark of 2-1. Their overall mark in these games was 2-1, while averaging 109 points per game.
• In their last three games as the betting underdog, the Pacers have a strong straight up record of 2-1. In addition, their ATS record was 2-1 in these scenarios.
• Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the favorite, the Knicks have a straight up record of 7-3. Their record vs the spread in these games was 4-6.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

The Knicks will host the Pacers today for game one and are favored by six. Both teams closed out their previous series last Thursday, and Indiana is looking to steal game one on the road. However, I see the Pacers struggling to keep up with a Knicks squad that is much more dangerous than the banged-up version of the Bucks they faced previously. I’m taking the Knicks at -6.