Indiana Pacers vs. Boston Celtics Game 1 Point Spread Pick

Indiana Pacers (47-35 SU, 51-42 ATS) vs. Boston Celtics (64-18 SU, 47-41 ATS)

When: Tuesday, May 21st, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: TD Garden, MA, Boston

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: Ind +10/Bos -10

Total: 221

Money Line: Indiana Pacers +355/-464

Notable Injuries

Pacers

• Bennedict Mathurin (Out) Shoulder

Celtics

• Kristaps Porzingis (Out) Calf
• Xavier Tillman Sr. (Questionable) Personal

The Celtics and Pacers tip off their Eastern Conference finals series at 8:00 PM ET at TD Garden in Boston. ESPN is carrying the game on TV, and the Celtics are the 10 point favorites on the point spread. The over/under line is sitting at 221 points, and the money line odds are -464 for the Celtics and +355 for the Pacers.

The Pacers are coming off a 130-109 win in their last game, which was on the road. The win clinched the series vs. the Knicks, as they won the series 4-3. The Pacers were able to advance to the next round with the win.

Indiana’s offense was excellent in the win, as they shot 67.1% from the field and 54.2% from three. They hit 13 threes as a team. Tyrese Haliburton led the Pacers with 26 points, and he knocked down six threes. Andrew Nembhard also added 20 points and shot 80% from the field.

The Celtics closed out their series vs. the Cavaliers with a 113-98 win at home. With the win, they took the series 4-1. Boston hit 19 threes and shot 44.2% from beyond the arc. Their 113 points were right on their season average.

On defense, the Celtics held the Cavaliers to 98 points. They allowed 13 threes on 41% shooting. Jayson Tatum had a big game for Boston, finishing with 25 points, 10 rebounds, and nine assists. Al Horford added 22 points and 15 rebounds.

Recent Form

The Pacers have an O/U record of 51-44-0 this season, and the over has hit in their last two games. This is higher than their season average of 238.2, with an average combined scoring of 241.

Indiana’s ATS record for the season is 51-42, and they have covered the spread in their last two games. On the road, they are 25-22 ATS compared to 26-20 at home.

Indiana’s record as the underdog this season is 23-21, and they have been the underdog in 44 of their 82 games. The average scoring margin for them as the underdog is -1.4 points per game.

In their last game, the Pacers defeated the Knicks by a score of 130-109. They were 2.5-point underdogs going into the game. The O/U line for that game was 206.5.

The Pacers are currently 6th in the Eastern Conference with a record of 47-35. In the Central Division, they are in 3rd place. This season, they are 32-20 against other teams in the East and 15-15 in non-conference games.

Boston comes into today’s game as the top seed in the Eastern Conference with a record of 64-18. Against the East, they are 41-11 compared to 23-7 against the West.

At home, the Celtics have gone 41-6 this season and are favored by 10 points today. However, they have an ATS record of 25-20 at home and have failed to cover in their last two games at home.

In terms of their O/U record, the Celtics are 48-43-1 for the season. The over has hit in their last two games and their games have averaged a combined 227.1 points per game.

In their most recent game, the Celtics defeated the Cavaliers by a score of 113-98. The O/U line for that game was 205 points, and Boston was favored by 15.5 points.

For the season, the Celtics have been favored in 88 of their 82 games. Their record as the favorite is 70-18, and they have an ATS record of 45-39 as the favorite.

Currently, the Celtics are on a three-game winning streak and have an ATS record of 47-41 for the season. At home, they are 25-20 vs. the spread.

The Historicals

In terms of betting vs the spread, the Pacers have gone 3-2, but the Celtics actually have a positive scoring differential. In these meetings, Boston has averaged 129 points per contest, while allowing 116. In these contests, they averaged a combined 245 points per game, leading to an over-under mark of 3-2.

Analysis

Across their last five games, the Pacers have gotten some good scoring production from Tyrese Haliburton, who is averaging 21.8 points per game in this stretch while hitting 54.4% of his shots from the field. In these games, he has hit 4 threes per game. Pascal Siakam has hit 56.8% of his shots in his last five games and 21.4 points. For the season, Siakam is averaging 21.7 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 4.3 assists.

Indiana is averaging 123.3 points per game this season, which is the best mark in the league. On the road, they have been even better, averaging 119.4 points per contest. Looking at their pace, the Pacers are 5th in the league, averaging 101.2 possessions per game.

So far this season, the Pacers have struggled on the defensive end, giving up 118.9 points per game. That ranks them 26th in the NBA. On the road, they have been even worse, allowing 121.0 points per game (27th).

Over their last five games, Indiana has been much better on the defensive end, giving up just 105.6 points per game (8th). During that stretch, they have been especially good at defending the two-point shot, holding opponents to just 47.3% shooting (2nd).

For the season, the Pacers have been very good at defending the three-point line, allowing opponents to shoot just 36.6% from beyond the arc (1st). They have also done a great job at limiting three-point attempts, giving up just 29.6 per game (1st).

Offensively, the Celtics are averaging 120.6 points per game this season, which is the second-best mark in the league. At home, they are scoring 121.5 points per contest. Boston is also the NBA’s top three-point shooting team, hitting 38% of their looks from beyond the arc. They are also first in three-pointers made, at 16.5 per game.

Jayson Tatum is averaging 26.8 points per game over his last five games, while Jaylen Brown is at 23.4 points per game in that stretch. Tatum’s season three-point shooting percentage is better than Brown’s, and he is averaging more threes per game. Derrick White is averaging 14 points per game on 38.1% shooting from the field and 39.6% shooting from downtown.

When it comes to defense, the Boston Celtics have been one of the best teams in the league, allowing just 107.9 points per game (3rd). They have been especially stingy at home, giving up just 106.9 points per game (4th).

Despite being one of the top defensive teams in the league, opponents have shot 45.3% from the field (2nd) and 34.8% from three (15th) against the Celtics. However, they have done a good job of keeping opponents off the free-throw line, allowing just 16.7 made free-throws per game (1st).

In terms of rebounding, Boston has been one of the best teams in the league, pulling down 46.3 rebounds per game (2nd). They have also been one of the best shot-blocking teams in the league, averaging 6.6 blocked shots per game (2nd).

Betting Trends

• Through their last five road games, Indiana has an ATS record of just 2-3. However, their overall record was 1-4 while averaging 110 points per game.
• Through their last ten home games, Boston has an ATS record of just 5-5. However, their overall record was 7-3 while averaging 109 points per game.
• Spanning across their last five games as the betting underdog, the Pacers have gone 3-2 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 2-3.
• Although the Celtics have a strong straight up record in their last five games as the betting favorite, they have not done as well vs the spread going 2-3.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Pacers won’t have any pressure heading into this Eastern Conference Finals series vs. Boston, and they do have momentum on their side, while the Celtics have been off since last Wednesday. Right now, the point spread is -10 in favor of Boston, but I think that the Pacers can make this one interesting, as they have some matchups they can take advantage of on offense. Although I see Boston winning game one, I like Indiana +10.