Houston vs. Atlanta: NBA Picks and Best Bets for Tonight’s Matchup

Houston Rockets (31-14 SU, 27-18 ATS) vs. Atlanta Hawks (22-24 SU, 19-27 ATS)

When: Tuesday, January 28th, 7:30 PM (ET)

Where: State Farm Arena, GA, Atlanta

TV: FDSS

Point Spread: Hou -6/Atl +6

Total: 227.5

Money Line: Houston Rockets -235/+195

Notable Injuries

Rockets

• Jabari Smith Jr. (Out) Hand
• Cam Whitmore (Questionable) Illness

Hawks

• Cody Zeller (Out) Not With Team
• Larry Nance Jr. (Questionable) Hand
• Trae Young (Questionable) Hamstring
• Jalen Johnson (Questionable) Shoulder
• Dyson Daniels (Questionable) Ankle
• Kobe Bufkin (Out) Shoulder

At 7:30 ET, the Houston Rockets (-235) will travel to Atlanta to take on the Hawks (+195). The Rockets are favored by six and have won three straight games. The over/under line for this non-conference matchup is 227.5.

This game will be played at State Farm Arena and can be seen on FDSS. The Hawks have lost five straight and are currently 9th in the Eastern Conference. The Rockets are 2nd in the West and 1st in the Southwest Division.

Recent Form

The Rockets improved to 31-14 on the season with a 114-112 win over the Celtics on Monday. Houston, who entered the game as +6 point underdogs, not only pulled off the upset but also covered the spread. The total points for the game reached 226, surpassing the over/under line of 221.

Houston went on a crucial 14-0 run, extending their lead from 22-17 to 36-17. After falling behind 89-85 heading into the 4th quarter, the Rockets outscored the Celtics 29-23 in the final period to secure the win.

The Hawks fell to 22-24 on the season after a 100-92 road loss to the Timberwolves on Monday. Atlanta entered the game as +10.5 point underdogs but managed to cover the spread, keeping the game closer than expected. The total score of 192 points fell well short of the 217.5-point line.

Atlanta struggled early, falling behind 53-35 after an 11-0 run by Minnesota. They responded with a strong 3rd quarter, outscoring the Timberwolves 31-20, but couldn’t complete the comeback, as they were outscored 20-18 in the 4th.

The Historicals

The ATS record across the previous five head-to-head meetings is 3-2 in favor of the Hawks. In these matchups, Atlanta has averaged 125 points per game while allowing 117. Over the course of these games, they averaged 242 points per game, leading a 3-2 over-under record.

Analysis

Dillon Brooks was on fire from deep, hitting 10 threes at a 66.7% clip and leading the Rockets with 36 points in their win over the Celtics. He shot 56.5% from the field, while the team connected on 41.5% of their threes, making 17 in total.

Amen Thompson added 33 points, shooting 68.4%, and chipped in 10 points in the 4th quarter. Jalen Green struggled from the field, shooting 23.1%, but contributed 6 of his 12 points in the final period.

Despite a tough 3rd quarter where they gave up 37 points, the Rockets’ defense came through in the 4th, allowing just 23 points to help secure a 114-112 win over the Celtics. Houston gave up 112 points overall, including 27 in the 1st and 25 in the 2nd.

The Rockets allowed Boston to shoot 48% from the field and 38% from three, with the Celtics hitting 15 threes. Houston also sent Boston to the line 20 times, where they made 19 free throws. The Rockets finished with 27 defensive rebounds, gave up seven offensive boards, and recorded seven steals.

In their 100-92 loss to the Timberwolves, the Hawks struggled offensively, shooting just 39.5% from the field and 27.9% from three-point range. They connected on 12 threes, with De’Andre Hunter hitting four at a 50% clip, while Keaton Wallace and Zaccharie Risacher each added three threes, shooting 33.3% from deep.

Hunter led the Hawks with 35 points, scoring 11 points in each of the final three quarters. Wallace contributed 13 points, with 5 in both the 1st and 2nd quarters, and Risacher chipped in 11 points, scoring 6 in the 3rd quarter.

Despite a strong defensive effort, the Hawks couldn’t capitalize, allowing 100 points in a loss to the Timberwolves. Atlanta gave up 28 points in the 1st quarter and 32 in the 2nd but tightened up in the 2nd half, holding Minnesota to just 20 points in both the 3rd and 4th quarters.

The Hawks held the Timberwolves to 39% shooting overall, including 30% from beyond the arc, where Minnesota hit 12 threes. Atlanta also recorded 10 steals and three blocks in the game.

Betting Trends

• Although Houston has a straight-up record of 9-1 in their last ten road games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 8-2. The team averaged 123 points per game in these games.
• In their last three home games, Atlanta has averaged 107 points per game while allowing 111. The team’s record in this stretch was 1-2 while going 2-1.
• The Hawks have played well in their last five games as the betting underdog, going 3-2 straight up and 4-1 against the spread.
• In their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Rockets have a straight up record of 7-3 and an ATS mark of 5-5.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

We hit our bet yesterday in backing the Rockets to cover vs Boston. Now, they are on the road again to face Atlanta. The Hawks also played last night vs the T Wolves in Minnesota. Where I think the edge in this game is the over/under line, as I expect some tired legs and a low-scoring game. Look for this one to stay below 227.5.