Heat vs. Pacers Prediction: Will Jimmy Butler Play?

Miami Heat (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS) vs. Indiana Pacers (5-7 SU, 6-6 ATS)

When: Sunday, November 17th, 5:00 PM (ET)

Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, IN, Indianapolis

TV: FDSI

Point Spread: Mia +2.5/Ind -2.5

Total: 229

Money Line: Miami Heat +117/-138

Notable Injuries

Heat

• Jimmy Butler (Questionable) Ankle

Pacers

• James Wiseman (Out) Achilles
• Aaron Nesmith (Out) Ankle
• Isaiah Jackson (Out) Achilles
• Andrew Nembhard (Out) Knee

At 5:00 ET, the Pacers will host the Heat in a matchup between two Eastern Conference teams. Indiana (-138) is favored by 2.5 points over Miami (+117). The over/under line is set at 229.

Indiana is 5-7 and has lost two straight games. Miami is 5-6 and ranks 6th in the Eastern Conference.

Recent Form

The Heat improved to 5-6 on the season with a 124-111 win over the Pacers on Friday. Miami, who entered the game as +4.5 point underdogs, not only won but covered the spread. The total points for the game reached 235, exceeding the O/U line of 228.5.

After trailing 29-26 after the 1st quarter, Miami went on a 10-0 run to close the gap from 77-64 to 77-74. They took control by outscoring Indiana 35-26 in the 2nd quarter and 37-30 in the 3rd, going into the 4th with a 98-85 lead. The teams were even at 26 points each in the final quarter.

The Pacers dropped to 5-7 on the season after a 124-111 home loss to the Heat on Friday. Indiana, who were favored by 4.5 points, failed to cover the spread, and the game’s total points of 235 exceeded the O/U line of 228.5 by 6.5 points.

Indiana led 29-26 after the 1st quarter, but a 10-0 run by the Heat shifted momentum. Miami outscored the Pacers 35-26 in the 2nd quarter and 37-30 in the 3rd, leaving Indiana trailing 98-85 heading into the 4th. Both teams scored 26 points in the final quarter.

The Historicals

Through the last five matchups between the teams, Miami has an ATS mark of 3-2. But, looking at the scoring margin in these games, an average of just 2 points per game separates the teams. Over the course of these games, they averaged 248 points per game, leading a 5-0 over-under record.

Analysis

The Heat shot 51.7% from the field in their win over the Pacers, knocking down 15 threes at a 35.7% clip. Bam Adebayo led the way with 30 points, 11 rebounds, and seven assists, hitting 58.8% of his shots and two threes at 66.7%.

Kevin Love added 15 points, all in the 3rd quarter, hitting 3 threes at 75%. Adebayo scored 16 points in the 4th, while Tyler Herro finished with 20 points despite shooting 22.2% from deep.

Despite allowing the Pacers to shoot 51% from the field, the Heat’s defense held them to 111 points. Miami gave up 29 points in the 1st quarter and 30 in the 3rd but limited Indiana to 26 points in both the 2nd and 4th quarters.

From beyond the arc, the Pacers hit 14 threes at a 40% clip. The Heat sent Indiana to the free-throw line 11 times, where they made 9. Miami also recorded 16 steals in the game.

In their 124-111 loss to the Heat, the Pacers shot 51.2% from the field and hit 14 threes at a 40% clip. Obi Toppin led the way with 21 points, hitting three threes at 60% efficiency, while Tyrese Haliburton added 18 points and eight assists, connecting on four threes.

Toppin scored 8 points in the 3rd quarter and added six more in the 4th. Haliburton also contributed 8 points in both the 1st and 2nd quarters, while T.J. McConnell scored 6 of his 14 points in the 3rd. Pascal Siakam added 10 of his 14 points in the 2nd quarter.

The Pacers struggled defensively in the 2nd and 3rd quarters, giving up 35 and 37 points, respectively, in their 124-111 loss to the Heat. Indiana allowed Miami to shoot 51% from the field.

From beyond the arc, the Pacers held the Heat to 15 made threes on 35% shooting. Indiana sent Miami to the line 23 times, where they converted 19 free throws. The Pacers recorded eight steals and four blocks.

Betting Trends

• Miami has a 2-3 record in their last five road games. In this stretch, they averaged 114 points per game while allowing 115. The team also performed well vs the spread at 3-2.
• Across their five previous home games, Indiana has an ATS mark of 2-3. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 1-4 while averaging 108 points per game.
• Going back to their previous five games as the underdog, Miami has an ATS mark of 3-2 while going 2-3 straight up.
• As the betting favorite, the Pacers have an ATS mark of just 1-2 in their last three games. Indiana posted a straight-up mark of 1-2 in these matchups.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The key to this one is monitoring Jimmy Butler’s status. If he goes, I’m rolling with the Heat to pick up a big road win over Indiana. The Pacers have a host of injuries to some key role players, and if Butler can take the floor, the Heat should roll, and I’d take them on the money line at +117.