Heat vs. Mavericks Betting Preview & Free Pick 1/20/23

Miami Heat (25-21 SU, 19-25-2 ATS) vs. Dallas Mavericks (24-22 SU, 15-29-2 ATS)
When: Friday, January 20th, 7:30 PM (ET)
Where: American Airlines Center, TX, Dallas
TV: ESPN

Point Spread: MIA -1.0/DAL -1 (Why bet on games at -110 when you could be laying only -105 at BetAnySports Sportsbook? Home of Reduced Juice Wagering!)
Total: 217.5
Money Line: Miami Heat -111/-109

Notable Injuries

Heat

• Duncan Robinson (Out) Finger
• Ömer Yurtseven (Out) Ankle
• Nikola Jovic (Out) Back

Mavericks

• Tim Hardaway Jr. (Probable) Ankle
• Christian Wood (Out) Thumb
• Maxi Kleber (Out) Hamstring
• McKinley Wright IV (Out) Foot

Recent Form

Heading into the game, Miami is 25-21 overall. When taking to the road, Miami has a mark of 11-12 and a win percentage of 48%. Currently, the team is 6th in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 19-25-2 vs. the spread. When looking at how the team has performed of late straight and vs. the spread, they are 4-1 in their past five games and 2-2-1 ATS. Over their past ten games, they are 7-3 SU and 6-3-1 ATS.

In their preceding game, the Heat overpowered the Pelicans, earning a 124-98 win as 3-point favorites. Bam Adebayo led the way for the Heat, putting up 26 points on 73.3% shooting. The Heat not only secured the victory but also covered the spread.

Heading into the game, Dallas is 24-22 overall. When playing at home, Dallas has a mark of 16-7 and a win percentage of 70%. Currently, the team is 5th in the Western Conference. So far, they are 15-29-2 vs. the spread. The Mavericks need a win in today’s matchup vs. Miami to avoid their 4th straight loss.

In their last game, Dallas was defeated by the Hawks with a score of 130-122. Despite Luka Doncic scoring 30 points, the team was unable to come out on top. Going into the game, the Mavericks were 2-point favorites.

The Historicals

In the 2021-2022 regular season, the Mavericks and Heat split their head-to-head season series. In these matchups, each team won on their opponent’s home floor. Similar to their season-long average, the Heat averaged 112.0 points per game vs. the Mavericks. Just like the Heat, the Mavericks maintained their usual level of scoring in head-to-head matchups, averaging 108.5 points per game vs. Miami. The level of competition has been tight in the five most recent games between Heat and Mavericks, with just -2 points per game separating the teams. Dallas has the ATS edge in this span at 3-2. The over-under record in these same games is 3-2, with the teams combining for an average of 220 points per game.

Analysis

This season, Miami is averaging just 109.2 points per game, which places them 30th in the league. A major reason for these low numbers is the fact that they play at one of the slower paces in the NBA at just 97.0 possessions per game. The Heat have been able to put together a strong offensive attack despite sitting just 25th in 3-point shooting percentage. Overall, they are among the league leaders in attempts at 35.8 attempts per game. Defensively, the Heat have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 105.57 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 34.0%.

Bam Adebayo is the top scorer for Miami, averaging 21.5 points per game. This season, his field goal percentage is 54.0%. The team’s second-leading scorer is Tyler Herro, with an average of 20.8 points per game.

This season, the Mavericks’ offense averages 112.9 points per game, which is 18th in the NBA. In terms of pace, Dallas has been playing at one of the slower tempo’s in the league, averaging just 96.9 possessions per game. The three-point shot has been a big part of Dallas’ offensive game plan, as they are ranked 3rd in 3-point attempts per game. So far, they have connected on 35.9% of their looks from the outside. Defensively, the Mavericks have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 104.72 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 33.98%.

Heading into today’s game, Dallas will need a strong offensive effort from Luka Doncic and the team’s supporting cast as Christian Wood won’t be available vs. Miami. So far, Wood is averaging 18.4 points per game. Doncic leads the Mavericks at 33.7 points per contest.

More Picks: Get our Memphis at LA Lakers recommended bet for 1/20/23 >>>

Betting Trends

• The Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
• The Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The Mavericks are 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 games overall.
• The Mavericks are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Mavs have lost five out of their last six games. The Heat are playing good basketball! The Mavs just lost Christian Wood with a fractured thumb. This is a bad time to be playing a hot Heat team. I’m absolutely baffled that the public is betting on the Mavericks heavily. The wrong team is favored here! I’m betting the Heat at +1! Bet your NBA predictions for FREE this week by scoring a 100% real cash bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $500 when you use bonus code PREDICTEM at Betnow Sportsbook!