Heat vs. Knicks Total Prediction for Game 1

Miami Heat (44-38 SU, 36-51-2 ATS) vs. New York Knicks (47-35 SU, 49-36-2 ATS)
When: Sunday, April 30th, 1:00 PM (ET)
Where: Madison Square Garden, NY, New York
TV: ABC

Point Spread: Mia +4.5/NY -4.5
Total: 207.5
Money Line: Miami Heat +162/-197

Notable Injuries

Heat

• Victor Oladipo (Out) Knee
• Bam Adebayo (Probable) Hamstring
• Tyler Herro (Out) Hand

Knicks

• Julius Randle (Questionable) Ankle
• Quentin Grimes (Questionable) Shoulder
• Jericho Sims (Out) Shoulder

Recent Form

Heading into the game, Miami is 44-38 overall. When taking to the road, Miami has a mark of 17-24 and a win percentage of 41%. Currently, the team is 8th in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 36-51-2 vs. the spread. In their matchup against New York, the Miami Heat have won 3 straight games and will look to push that mark to 4 in a row.

After their win against the Bucks, Miami will be looking to continue their momentum. Jimmy Butler had a big game, scoring 42 points to help lead the team to victory. As 13-point underdogs on the spread, the Heat were able to come away with an ATS win

Heading into the game, New York is 47-35 overall. When playing at home, New York has a mark of 23-18 and a win percentage of 56%. Currently, the team is 5th in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 49-36-2 vs. the spread. New York will look to stay hot in today’s game vs. Miami as they are the winners of 3 straight games.

After their win against the Cavaliers, New York will be looking to continue their momentum. Jalen Brunson had a big game, scoring 23 points to help lead the team to victory. As 5-point underdogs on the spread, the Knicks were able to come home with an ATS win

The Historicals

In the most recent matchup between the two teams, the Knicks picked up the 101-92 win over the Heat. The Knicks’ margin of victory was enough to cover the spread as 6.0 point favorite. So far this season, the Knicks have a record of 3-1 vs the Heat. In terms of betting, New York has an ATS record of 4-1 in the previous five matchups vs Miami. This mark has come on an average scoring margin of +3 points per game in favor of the Knicks. In these matchups, the teams have put together an over-under mark of 2-2-1. Combined, they averaged 221 points in these games.

Analysis

This season, Miami is among the league leaders in scoring, averaging 109.5 points per game. So far, the Heat are also one of the more up-tempo teams in the league, sitting at 96.2 possessions per game. Miami’s 3-point shooting numbers are below the league average, as they have hit just 34.4% of their looks from deep. On average, the team gets up 34.8 3-point shots per game, placing them 17th in the NBA. Defensively, the Heat have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 105.8 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 34.0%.

Bam Adebayo is averaging 20.4 points per game this season on a field goal percentage of 54.0%. Jimmy Butler is the team’s leading scorer, averaging 22.9 points per game.

This season, the Knicks’ offense averages 116.0 points per game, which is 17th in the NBA. In terms of pace, New York has been playing at one of the slower tempo’s in the league, averaging just 97.7 possessions per game. New York’s 3-point shooting numbers are below the league average, as they have hit just 35.4% of their looks from deep. On average, the team gets up 35.7 3-point shots per game, placing them 15th in the NBA. Defensively, the Knicks have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 106.6 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 34.2%.

Heading into the game, Julius Randle is listed as questionable on the injury report. This season, he leads the team with a per-game scoring average of 25.1. Currently, Jalen Brunson is 2nd on the team in scoring at 24.0 points per game.

Betting Trends

• The Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
• The Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last six after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Knicks are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The Knicks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Cleveland Cavaliers/New York Knicks series was fairly low scoring. Many bettors believe that pace will carry over into the next series with the Miami Heat. I am not one of them! These teams generally score a fair amount of points when they meet. I’m betting the Over 207!